International markets traders banter

[Joules MM1]

nothing to see here....

You told me I was the neatest thing
You even asked me to wear your ring
You ran around with every girl in town
You didn't even care if it got me down

Uh huh, hmm hmm
Gonna get along without you now
Mhm mhm, hmm hmm
Gonna get along without you now

The last 2 days of English politics have been the most tragic display of ineptitude I've ever seen in my life, and I am Italian.

 

[notting]

Two things to remember. The 24 hour 2 Trillion global sell off after the Brexit announcement was the biggest in history.
Second remember what the markets used to do over Greece!
China has been sneaking down the Yuan too and remember what that did in Jan, Feb.
The carnage hasn't even started.

 

[notting]

Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland getting another QTR of their value smashed for a second day in London.
Banks are the life blood of any economy and these are two of the biggest banks in Europe and the world.

 

[notting]

Also re this -

Yes it was a remarkable come back.... it came back to the point that it was not even a 3 day low. It felt like a no brainer short at ~6200 (I was asleep by then).

I think the UK market is in denial and still doesn't know what's hit it.

A LOT of trade and investments will freeze in the face of uncertainty. Who's going to put money into UK when the currency can have a 10-15% range in months, while accessible markets can potentially change from the whole EU to just UK (or even just England).

Something like 80% of major company earnings for companies listed on the FTSE come from Euro zone so the fall in the pound is a pretty big bonus for these companies.
Still going to be a big mess cause Euro is weekened big time without GB on board.

 

[rvm]

Any thoughts on gold?

As per instos guidelines 1320 is the gold peak value after brexit (credit suisse brexit playbook) - COT report suggests that commercials are short gold and retail is bullish. Whenever I have seen sharp divergence between commercial Vs retail positioning, commercials have been right.
Another interesting activity is VIX behavior - it turned negative and stayed negative as wall street was down more than 300 points overnight.
Goldman and the rest have advised clients who want to purchase gold to do so using GBP and EUR as they don't see any upside in USD gold trade. This seems sensible considering that markets expect a rate cut from BOE and corporate bond purchases. It looks like currency trade rather than bullish gold trade(you can argue that gold has always been currency trade).
Coupled with above factors and the strong USD, gold should get weaker as paper gets stronger.

 

[CanOz]

No sure about gold but i smell a short squeeze cooking on the indices.......

 

[notting]

No sure about gold but i smell a short squeeze cooking on the indices.......

Some big buying came in at 10:30
Gold not powering on and some weakening

 

[rvm]

No sure about gold but i smell a short squeeze cooking on the indices.......

Thanks for the reply Europe futures looking green - Quarterly options expiry in couple days US. Sold small gold this morning - barring some ugly political news, I expect gold to take it on the chin.

 

[CanOz]

Thanks for the reply Europe futures looking green - Quarterly options expiry in couple days US. Sold small gold this morning - barring some ugly political news, I expect gold to take it on the chin.

Yeah, i'd be inclined to think it might test 1300 ish again, since it failed at the composite value area high at 1360 ish....

 

[notting]

Perhaps the silver lining is this -
After what has happened to the pound, the financial markets, the financials and property stocks in GB, Euro is now stronger because no one wants to leave and have it happen to them. Spanish elections seemed to indicate they are going to stick with the status quo. So maybe it will end up being a blessing in disguise and a change in sentiment over the whole Euro basket.

Meanwhile lets go and have some fun in London!

 

[CanOz]

Might have seen the end of the short covering....Yen rising, Gold Rising, Indices pulling back...

 

[kid hustlr]

Might have seen the end of the short covering....Yen rising, Gold Rising, Indices pulling back...

Yeah,

Just to confirm here no one thinks this is over do they? Surely there's still far more pain to come. Most indices still look pretty sick - FTSE probably the healthiest of them all but I'm still expecting another down draft soon

 

[skc]

Yeah,

Just to confirm here no one thinks this is over do they? Surely there's still far more pain to come. Most indices still look pretty sick - FTSE probably the healthiest of them all but I'm still expecting another down draft soon

I read somewhere that the market was actually higher at the end of the week when Lehman blew up. It didn't know how to price that event and thought that was some kind of low in terms of bad news....

There's talk that there's going to be a 2nd referendum after EU make some concession to UK... so may be the market is just rallying on that hope?

 

[CanOz]

I read somewhere that the market was actually higher at the end of the week when Lehman blew up. It didn't know how to price that event and thought that was some kind of low in terms of bad news....

There's talk that there's going to be a 2nd referendum after EU make some concession to UK... so may be the market is just rallying on that hope?

some of this must be short covering...

 

[CanOz]

some of this must be short covering...

Seems this has gone beyond short covering.....month end/start should be interesting.

 

[notting]

There's talk that there's going to be a 2nd referendum after EU make some concession to UK... so may be the market is just rallying on that hope?

That would be perfect!
Push out the the letter to leave for 2 or more years and pull an early election with the options on the table.
US banking futures got a big kick up this morning after the very positive stress test results came in.

 

[CanOz]

The Hang Seng looks set to break out out of its consolidation...Will it fail or break out? We should see today, the first day of July.

 

[CanOz]

PMI Day too.....

 

[Modest]

Yesterday was EOM ES, how about that Monthly bar close on the ES? What plunge?

 

[CanOz]

HKFE closed today...