International markets traders banter

[CanOz]

one for the intra day traders out there:

In a raging bull market does your set up and trading style change?

I'm not saying we are running into a bull But recent events have got me thinking that at some stage we will. I feel in the last 2-3 years of atleast having some exposure to intra day mkts (but no success mind you) I've seen grinds higher, consolidations and bear periods. I feel my 'playbook' atleast has some pages for each of these themes, ranging from looking for a fake out every time in a quiet mkt to sacking up and selling the first bar in strong bear.

Traditionally I feel good sell trades rarely 'retest' and move quickly. Hard to get on and violent movements. Alternatively most (not all) bull opportunities provide some type of decent confluence to get in. Basing patterns, certain times of the day, retests etc.

Now I'm wondering if this view is perhaps warped by the fact I haven't witness all mkt themes?

In a raging bull is it just close your eyes and buy buy buy?

A couple of my observations/thoughts about bull markets compared to bear markets....in Bull markets , prices move up slower because punters like to hang onto profits, where as in bear markets, prices decline swiftly as fear sets in, so the theory goes. So from my point of view 'value' as expressed by the most highly traded price should be constantly accepted higher through consolidations (Brackets) and breakouts. An aging trend should have value area grinding higher as the auction struggles to attract more bidders. I should be able to illustrate this using my TPO momentum indicator. Also, we can plot an ATR to show lowering volatility as the market accepts higher value in bull markets and higher volatility as the market searches for value lower during bear markets...

So what should we expect from intra-day price action during bull markets? I think it would mean more rotational days, narrower ranges, fewer large range extensions. Some nice short covering rallies, as well as a few good breaks as longs liquidate but some solid excess lows where lower prices are firmly rejected at the value area highs of previous brackets.

The average daily range is shrinking in a bull market, so is the opportunity for large moves. Perhaps larger size and smaller targets should be considered, rather than smaller size and bigger targets...

The chart shows the ATR as a measure of volatility and the TPO momentum which shows the change in the 'most agreed' price of the day, as defined by the amount of time it spends at that price, not volume.

This is a really interesting topic and the above are only my thoughts in answer to your question. I would love to be able to quantify it more. An interesting note on quantifying this type of thing, i found through extensive testing of an open range breakout system (SPI) that during bear markets the opening 5-10 minute range could be traded quite profitably, presumably because of the gaps. Going back over time, it worked better in very volatile markets, for obvious reasons, urgency and fear.

 

[CanOz]

Wow, the greenback is on fire today:burn:

 

[CanOz]

The FTSE is set to gap open with everything else in Europe, plus its got this bracket that will result in some imbalanced price action and with that, opportunity. There few scarios, an open drive is possible, an open test drive is likely too. Determine where you think the lines in the sand would be for one or the other. Personally i think and open test drive might occur if the market gaps up but not higher than 6269, but if it gaps above this, we could see shorts cover all the way to 6296, which is the target for this.

If we do open/test drive then one wouldn't want the market to test below 6244

Reminder: Holiday in the US

 

[CanOz]

The Yen has taken a pounding today with the Government set to delay the implementation of a sales tax....and the US closer to a rate hike. This is certainly helped my Yen pairs that i held over the weekend.

 

[kid hustlr]

A couple of my observations/thoughts about bull markets compared to bear markets....in Bull markets , prices move up slower because punters like to hang onto profits, where as in bear markets, prices decline swiftly as fear sets in, so the theory goes. So from my point of view 'value' as expressed by the most highly traded price should be constantly accepted higher through consolidations (Brackets) and breakouts. An aging trend should have value area grinding higher as the auction struggles to attract more bidders. I should be able to illustrate this using my TPO momentum indicator. Also, we can plot an ATR to show lowering volatility as the market accepts higher value in bull markets and higher volatility as the market searches for value lower during bear markets...

So what should we expect from intra-day price action during bull markets? I think it would mean more rotational days, narrower ranges, fewer large range extensions. Some nice short covering rallies, as well as a few good breaks as longs liquidate but some solid excess lows where lower prices are firmly rejected at the value area highs of previous brackets.

The average daily range is shrinking in a bull market, so is the opportunity for large moves. Perhaps larger size and smaller targets should be considered, rather than smaller size and bigger targets...

The chart shows the ATR as a measure of volatility and the TPO momentum which shows the change in the 'most agreed' price of the day, as defined by the amount of time it spends at that price, not volume.

This is a really interesting topic and the above are only my thoughts in answer to your question. I would love to be able to quantify it more. An interesting note on quantifying this type of thing, i found through extensive testing of an open range breakout system (SPI) that during bear markets the opening 5-10 minute range could be traded quite profitably, presumably because of the gaps. Going back over time, it worked better in very volatile markets, for obvious reasons, urgency and fear.

This is really really good stuff. Also you unfortunately confirmed some of my views with regards to bull vs bear markets

 

[kid hustlr]

is the ftse closed?

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

is the ftse closed?

Yeah holidays in US and UK today/tonight.

 

[kid hustlr]

Yeah holidays in US and UK today/tonight.

Guess I'll go home and talk to the (sigh) wife.

 

[cynic]

Guess I'll go home and talk to the (sigh) wife.

Well if the market is not there to FTSE you, then that may be your next best option.

 

[CanOz]

Yeah holidays in US and UK today/tonight.

Shame that!

 

[cynic]

Shame that!

The DAX side is still rockin'

 

[Modest]

A couple of my observations/thoughts about bull markets compared to bear markets....in Bull markets , prices move up slower because punters like to hang onto profits, where as in bear markets, prices decline swiftly as fear sets in, so the theory goes. So from my point of view 'value' as expressed by the most highly traded price should be constantly accepted higher through consolidations (Brackets) and breakouts. An aging trend should have value area grinding higher as the auction struggles to attract more bidders. I should be able to illustrate this using my TPO momentum indicator. Also, we can plot an ATR to show lowering volatility as the market accepts higher value in bull markets and higher volatility as the market searches for value lower during bear markets...

So what should we expect from intra-day price action during bull markets? I think it would mean more rotational days, narrower ranges, fewer large range extensions. Some nice short covering rallies, as well as a few good breaks as longs liquidate but some solid excess lows where lower prices are firmly rejected at the value area highs of previous brackets.

The average daily range is shrinking in a bull market, so is the opportunity for large moves. Perhaps larger size and smaller targets should be considered, rather than smaller size and bigger targets...

The chart shows the ATR as a measure of volatility and the TPO momentum which shows the change in the 'most agreed' price of the day, as defined by the amount of time it spends at that price, not volume.

This is a really interesting topic and the above are only my thoughts in answer to your question. I would love to be able to quantify it more. An interesting note on quantifying this type of thing, i found through extensive testing of an open range breakout system (SPI) that during bear markets the opening 5-10 minute range could be traded quite profitably, presumably because of the gaps. Going back over time, it worked better in very volatile markets, for obvious reasons, urgency and fear.

Are there stats out there about periods of low volume and whether the price tends to go in the direction of the prevailing trend (higher tf, 2hr or daily?) during low volume periods ?

 

[cynic]

Are there stats out there about periods of low volume and whether the price tends to go in the direction of the prevailing trend (higher tf, 2hr or daily?) during low volume periods ?

And whilst you're taking requests CanOz, could I have a side order of fries!

 

[Modest]

Fuu can't edit it, maybe I shouldn't have quoted CanOz directly... It is more a question to anyone reading. Something I have been finkin` about lately amongst other things.

Sorry CanOz did not mean any disrespect!

Anyway.... Retail keep on piling short US... I reckon we'll make an ATH on ES before we go the other way...

 

[CanOz]

Regarding low volume you would have to devis a query based on volume, perhaps starting with low volume days then a trend overlay. Happy to provide the data

Holidays though, where the holidays are only in the US tend to create illiquid opportunities where stops get run with no one to use the extra liquidity, like the US dollar today....I'll be looking to get out tomorrow before it gets pounded the opposite direction....

 

[kid hustlr]

When is the traditional quiet period for overseas markets?

CanOz I know you've mentioned at some stage it quietens down for a few months.

Is that around this time? and when does it usually last to?

 

[CanOz]

Ahh, the summer doldrums, or from our pov the depth of winter....it usually is at its worse from August until the labor day weekend in the US....but perhaps a long term ES chart can show something....good question and stay tuned.....

 

[CanOz]

When is the traditional quiet period for overseas markets?

CanOz I know you've mentioned at some stage it quietens down for a few months.

Is that around this time? and when does it usually last to?

Ok just eyeballing a weekly ES chart you can see that while not a hard and fast rule, the volume drops off in Mid July and picks up again after the first week in September....thats when we're going back behind the wall for a few weeks...

 

[Joules MM1]

:

honkers heavy lifting locals waited .....trap set ?

 

[CanOz]

View attachment 66900

:

honkers heavy lifting locals waited .....trap set ?

I notived the SPI sold off with that DPRK announcement and wondered if the HKFE would change things...still busy mucking around with my connections...