International markets traders banter

[fiftyeight]

It might comfort you to know that I share some of your uncertainty and have genuine admiration for your willingness to view those statistics critically.

Are you certain it's the smart money buying the weekly high or selling the weekly low ? Sounds to me more like another kind of money operating at those extremes.

It definitely does help. Hopefully I will have some meaningful results soonish.

Hmmmmmm good point let me ponder this.......

First thoughts, no the smart money is not buying the weekly high in a bull market, especially if it obviously on a Friday. Then that just leaves traders trying to get flat (again assuming the big guys are correct and were long), which drives the price down.

Traders trying to get flat however may provide the smart with enough liquidity to get on large size which could change things..... maybe haha

 

[Joules MM1]

@Modest

a motley monthly manicdote at best, yeah, sure, but it's interesting if the psychology behind the print is considered

for your consideration (russian doll thing):

 

[fiftyeight]

In bull markets Friday closes high as people rush to get involved, in bear markets people don't want to hold through the weekend....Fridays close lower

Given that many traders prefer to avoid carrying net directional exposure over the weekend

For both these to hold true then there should be an increased volume on Mondays and Fridays?

Rancho's relative volume should reveal this on a daily chart Can, is the relative volume increased on Mondays and Fridays?

 

[CanOz]

For both these to hold true then there should be an increased volume on Mondays and Fridays?

Rancho's relative volume should reveal this on a daily chart Can, is the relative volume increased on Mondays and Fridays?

Rancho's study tool can give you the data we need, exported to excel. Will do once I'm in the office later!

 

[CanOz]

58 i'm going to need your email to send you the XL files. While i'm waiting i'll do a heap of studies and then zip them up ready for email....

Edit, PM sent you 58!

 

[Wysiwyg]

Must be close to a U.S. Index short sell. The Soros Put Options bet on the S&P 500 ETF bearing fruit?

 

[Joules MM1]

stuff #oil $dx
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/theres-been-a-shift-in-the-way-global-markets-are-behaving-2016-5

“We think the relative stability in the CNY, oil price, and credit market are all sending potentially important signals which will have important implications for both the breadth and momentum of the USD rally from here,” he says.

 

[CanOz]

Great timing Joules, i was pondering this yesterday as i watched CL blaze higher with a stronger dollar...However, that said, this morning CL has popped the stops on 49.5 and the DX has broken its trendline higher, so the negative correlation looks to be coming back in style again? The USD weakness seems to be coming from JPY strength?

 

[cynic]

For both these to hold true then there should be an increased volume on Mondays and Fridays?

Rancho's relative volume should reveal this on a daily chart Can, is the relative volume increased on Mondays and Fridays?

Not necessarily! Have you heard about the practice of ratcheting?

 

[fiftyeight]

Not necessarily! Have you heard about the practice of ratcheting?

No I have not???

OK, what I surprise I am having a few issues with looking at this, including but not limited to not having excel, not having a working network and not having any Excel skill.

Working on all 3. Will post when I do eventually have a result

 

[cynic]

No I have not???

OK, what I surprise I am having a few issues with looking at this, including but not limited to not having excel, not having a working network and not having any Excel skill.

Working on all 3. Will post when I do eventually have a result

It was a technique that some participants have been accused of using to manipulate price action during periods of low volume.

I only mention it, because it highlights (amongst other things) that extreme prices can, and often do, occur during periods of low volume.

 

[fiftyeight]

It was a technique that some participants have been accused of using to manipulate price action during periods of low volume.

I only mention it, because it highlights (amongst other things) that extreme prices can, and often do, occur during periods of low volume.

All I can find is something relating to dilution. Will have a look tomorrow when a page might actually load in less than 5 mins.

I accept that extremes can and do often happen during low volume. But that is not what you implied. If there is a larger number of traders trying to get net flat towards the end of the week to avoid the weekend, volume should be high. This makes a very very big assumption that they are long in a bull market though....... hmmmm

 

[cynic]

All I can find is something relating to dilution. Will have a look tomorrow when a page might actually load in less than 5 mins.

I accept that extremes can and do often happen during low volume. But that is not what you implied. If there is a larger number of traders trying to get net flat towards the end of the week to avoid the weekend, volume should be high. This makes a very very big assumption that they are long in a bull market though....... hmmmm

I think we might be on a slightly different page here. Volume traded and number of traders don't typically correlate.

A possibility to consider (just one of many):

There are two parties to each transaction, some long, some short, some large, some small, some smart, some dumb and a deadline looming (i.e. the weekend). Some dumb shorts are desperately buying back their position, for whatever price they can get and the smart longs may well be the ones squeezing those exorbitant prices out of the dumb shorts.

 

[fiftyeight]

I think we might be on a slightly different page here. Volume traded and number of traders don't typically correlate.

A possibility to consider (just one of many):

There are two parties to each transaction, some long, some short, some large, some small, some smart, some dumb and a deadline looming (i.e. the weekend). Some dumb shorts are desperately buying back their position, for whatever price they can get and the smart longs may well be the ones squeezing those exorbitant prices out of the dumb shorts.

They would be dumb shorts, apparently there is high chance Monday will put in a low :

I take what you are saying onboard and simple assumptions like it takes volume to move the market will not always stand up

 

[Joules MM1]

honkers got nice bid on

------------



Ned Davis Research ‏@NDR_Research 5m5 minutes ago

#Stocks can rise within a tightening cycle. When bond yields <4%, #equity returns positively correlated with yield.

 

[Joules MM1]

front contract on cmc shows $SPX all-clients at :1zhelp: 95% sell to open and (that's 5% long )

HSI players backed right off their bullish stance to be just 51% longs

lemony squeezy rockets, anyone?

 

[cynic]

They would be dumb shorts, apparently there is high chance Monday will put in a low :

I take what you are saying onboard and simple assumptions like it takes volume to move the market will not always stand up

It is theoretically possible, that strong, weeks long trends, can produce a bias towards weekly extremes falling on mondays and fridays when measured based upon a Monday to Friday week. In an uptrend the weekly highs will fall on Friday and the lows on the Monday and vice versa in a downtrend.

Your suggestion about examining the results based upon a different starting point for the week, (i.e. wednesday to the following tuesday, instead of monday to friday) might help to resolve the question of whether the results have been biased by the prevailing trends.

 

[cynic]

front contract on cmc shows $SPX all-clients at :1zhelp: 95% sell to open and (that's 5% long )

HSI players backed right off their bullish stance to be just 51% longs

lemony squeezy rockets, anyone?

View attachment 66860

Some prefer counterparty raspberry flavour as it is so much sweeter blowing raspberries than sucking lemons.

 

[kid hustlr]

one for the intra day traders out there:

In a raging bull market does your set up and trading style change?

I'm not saying we are running into a bull But recent events have got me thinking that at some stage we will. I feel in the last 2-3 years of atleast having some exposure to intra day mkts (but no success mind you) I've seen grinds higher, consolidations and bear periods. I feel my 'playbook' atleast has some pages for each of these themes, ranging from looking for a fake out every time in a quiet mkt to sacking up and selling the first bar in strong bear.

Traditionally I feel good sell trades rarely 'retest' and move quickly. Hard to get on and violent movements. Alternatively most (not all) bull opportunities provide some type of decent confluence to get in. Basing patterns, certain times of the day, retests etc.

Now I'm wondering if this view is perhaps warped by the fact I haven't witness all mkt themes?

In a raging bull is it just close your eyes and buy buy buy?

 

[fiftyeight]

So this where I am at so far.

Turned out to be much more difficult than expected so I have had to get a Freelancer.

Still having issues with that data not in the same format and still yet to run it for a different 5 or 6 day period.

Also the data includes ETH, yet to have a think about if this should be included or not or it does not matter