International markets traders banter

cynic · 25 May 2016

Joules MM1 said:
that's an all-knowing all-seeing confident comment

......care to expand ?

I grant that I didn't examine the specifics of the recent example reported in this thread, so I cannot say with certainty that the stop was nefariously exploited on that occasion. However, my years of experience of trading OTC CFDs, have taught me exactly what to expect when using stop orders with such products.

If somebody is somehow managing to enjoy the protection, afforded by stops, without having them precisely triggered more often than seems probable, then I, for one, will be genuinely surprised!

fiftyeight · 25 May 2016

CanOz said:
Fade CL as well?

I did pretty well on the run down leading up to xmas but I generally don't look at it.

It is on my ever growing to do list.

Modest · 25 May 2016

Banking Holidays for UK and USA this coming Monday. I won't be looking for shorts until Friday going into the long weekend.

Joules MM1 · 25 May 2016

Modest said:
Banking Holidays for UK and USA this coming Monday. I won't be looking for shorts until Friday going into the long weekend.

am thinking, bullish bias most long weekends....that would translate to swing risk for open longs on wednesday ?

have you done a history on long weekends during strong upswings, M ?

Joules MM1 · 25 May 2016

oil is the last commod of signif (to me) to make a retracement of the current up-phase... with metals

and this

Modest · 25 May 2016

Joules MM1 said:
have you done a history on long weekends during strong upswings, M ?

Yeah good point... No I haven't - I'll shut up now.

CanOz · 25 May 2016

Modest said:
Yeah good point... No I haven't - I'll shut up now.

Highs and lows for the week are more often than not on a Monday or Friday....fwiw

Joules MM1 · 25 May 2016

Modest said:
No I haven't

keep at it....and keep at it

let us know what you discover, yes, i know, there's a plethora of waffle about cyclicality and stuff, still, tendencies of people and liquidity are what they are

Modest · 25 May 2016

Joules MM1 said:
keep at it....and keep at it

let us know what you discover, yes, i know, there's a plethora of waffle about cyclicality and stuff, still, tendencies of people and liquidity are what they are

Hey Joules,

What do you make of this:

That is extreme to me (% Short for Wall St and US 500).

I am going to keep an eye on this to see what happens to the price structure when short % above goes back to around 50% - this would indicate that most shorts have been squeezed out and maybe a drive back down may be likely?

Joules MM1 · 25 May 2016

Modest said:
Hey Joules,

What do you make of this:

That is extreme to me (% Short for Wall St and US 500).

I am going to keep an eye on this to see what happens to the price structure when short % above goes back to around 50% - this would indicate that most shorts have been squeezed out and maybe a drive back down may be likely?

reckon mate

https://www.tradingfloorchat.com/room/5-stock-chat
(cmc)

Joules MM1
2016-May-25 04:48:34
and off course 80% BTO for gold cfd ....rofl
Joules MM1
2016-May-25 04:47:50
killem, Skip
Joules MM1
2016-May-25 04:47:43
and 78% for all accounts STO A200 ($XJO)
Joules MM1
2016-May-25 04:46:51
$SPX cfd for the front month contract shows a whopping 93% in STO positions......wow.......mass squeez operation

fiftyeight · 25 May 2016

CanOz said:
Highs and lows for the week are more often than not on a Monday or Friday....fwiw

I have been thinking about this.

Are highs and lows more likely on a Monday or Friday or are they more likely at the start and end of any 5 day period. The test would have to eliminate this, possibly by testing all 5 day periods.

Just had a look at TH's old blog as he ran this on the HSI, does not look like he tested for this. Someone in the comments had a similar thought but there is no reply

CanOz · 25 May 2016

fiftyeight said:
I have been thinking about this.

Are highs and lows more likely on a Monday or Friday or are they more likely at the start and end of any 5 day period. The test would have to eliminate this, possibly by testing all 5 day periods.

Just had a look at TH's old blog as he ran this on the HSI, does not look like he tested for this. Someone in the comments had a similar thought but there is no reply

Ole Troy at Rancho likes his stats....

Most probable days of the week for highs and lows

fiftyeight · 25 May 2016

CanOz said:
Ole Troy at Rancho likes his stats....

Most probable days of the week for highs and lows

Hmmm, cannot really tell from the discription but

I recorded which days set the high and low price for that week

Is there any particular reason a Monday to Friday week is important?

I would like to see the numbers run on a 5 day period say Wednesday to Tuesday.

All we can say at the moment is that the first and last day of this 5 day period show more highs and lows

Monday and Friday may well still have more highs and lows but it may not be as significant or they may not be significant at all.

I assume I am missing something as usual haha

Next break I will get some data and have a look.

Or if anyone has the appropriate .csv file, email it to me and ill try do it at work

cynic · 25 May 2016

fiftyeight said:
Hmmm, cannot really tell from the discription but

Is there any particular reason a Monday to Friday week is important?

I would like to see the numbers run on a 5 day period say Wednesday to Tuesday.

All we can say at the moment is that the first and last day of this 5 day period show more highs and lows

Monday and Friday may well still have more highs and lows but it may not be as significant or they may not be significant at all.

I assume I am missing something as usual haha

Next break I will get some data and have a look.

Or if anyone has the appropriate .csv file, email it to me and ill try do it at work

Given that many traders prefer to avoid carrying net directional exposure over the weekend, what sort of actions might those traders typically take on a friday? And those same traders on the following monday will then want to...

fiftyeight · 25 May 2016

cynic said:
Given that many traders prefer to avoid carrying net directional exposure over the weekend, what sort of actions might those traders typically take on a friday? And those same traders on the following monday will then want to...

So if they are net long (and assuming the smart are correct the market should be trending up) and do not want to hold over the weekend they will sell on Friday sending the price down. Then would buy on Monday sending the price up. This suggests the opposite to the data we have so far. There would be a lot of selling pressure on Friday therefore it should be very similar to Thursday.

A standard week is obviously important to the psyche, so there would be case as to why Monday and Friday are significant, I am just not sure the data has conclusively shown this yet

CanOz · 25 May 2016

fiftyeight said:
So if they are net long (and assuming the smart are correct the market should be trending up) and do not want to hold over the weekend they will sell on Friday sending the price down. Then would buy on Monday sending the price up. This suggests the opposite to the data we have so far. There would be a lot of selling pressure on Friday therefore it should be very similar to Thursday.

A standard week is obviously important to the psyche, so there would be case as to why Monday and Friday are significant, I am just not sure the data has conclusively shown this yet

If it's over 80% then it's pretty conclusive.

In bull markets Friday closes high as people rush to get involved, in bear markets people don't want to hold through the weekend....Fridays close lower. that's from Larry Williams I think...must look it up.

cynic · 25 May 2016

fiftyeight said:
So if they are net long (and assuming the smart are correct the market should be trending up) and do not want to hold over the weekend they will sell on Friday sending the price down. Then would buy on Monday sending the price up. This suggests the opposite to the data we have so far. There would be a lot of selling pressure on Friday therefore it should be very similar to Thursday.

A standard week is obviously important to the psyche, so there would be case as to why Monday and Friday are significant, I am just not sure the data has conclusively shown this yet

I do admire your critical angle on this.

And in your bull market example, the counterparties to those net long would be...

fiftyeight · 25 May 2016

CanOz said:
If it's over 80% then it's pretty conclusive.

The numbers may not be so strong after further analysis

In bull markets Friday closes high as people rush to get involved, in bear markets people don't want to hold through the weekend....Fridays close lower. that's from Larry Williams I think...must look it up.

The smart money moves the market? So they have been watching youtube all week and then realise **** we forgot buy. Hmmm

People not wanting to hold over the weekend in a bear market seems to make a bit more sense to me.

I expect to be wrong on this one, I am just not convince yet as I think there might be a few holes which I will look in to.

fiftyeight · 25 May 2016

CanOz said:
In bull markets Friday closes high as people rush to get involved

cynic said:
Given that many traders prefer to avoid carrying net directional exposure over the weekend

Hang on hang on

Can is saying in a bull market everyone is rushing to buy on a Friday. cynic is saying that traders are trying to get net flat. Surely at best this supply and demand would roughly equal out.

Additionally, if this edge was as significant and obvious would it not be traded out

Someone send me a csv file so I can figure this out, I am going round and round in my head now haha

There is a comments section on Rancho, hopefully we get a reply

cynic · 25 May 2016

fiftyeight said:
The numbers may not be so strong after further analysis

The smart money moves the market? So they have been watching youtube all week and then realise **** we forgot buy. Hmmm

People not wanting to hold over the weekend in a bear market seems to make a bit more sense to me.

I expect to be wrong on this one, I am just not convince yet as I think there might be a few holes which I will look in to.

It might comfort you to know that I share some of your uncertainty and have genuine admiration for your willingness to view those statistics critically.

Are you certain it's the smart money buying the weekly high or selling the weekly low ? Sounds to me more like another kind of money operating at those extremes.

International markets traders banter

cynic

fiftyeight

Modest

It's in the chart

Joules MM1

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Modest

It's in the chart

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

Joules MM1

Modest

It's in the chart

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Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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