Logique
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Uber bearish isn't it, but some nice charts! We're in for a rough few months if their analog is correct.
International markets traders banter
- Thread starter Trembling Hand
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CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Everyone tries to be the clever one that called the retrun of the bear. If they're wrong, you never hear of them again, if they're right they're a legend for a single call.
If anything we look more like October 2005
Danny Riley thinking the bears have finally turned bullish....
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Trembling Hand
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Everyone tries to be the clever one that called the retrun of the bear. If they're wrong, you never hear of them again, if they're right they're a legend for a single call.
If anything we look more like October 2005
They always play the same game. Add a heap of charts with lots of commentary to make it look smart, so much so you actually cannot see the price action and then try to shoehorn the current situation into a past one that they missed and still want to play out.
sinner macro update (click the little green arrow from above quote to see the previous charts).
First up is VIX. Positive signs here for the equity and short vol bulls, if you recall the last post my major concern was the elevated VIX becoming structural but it looks like vols have been crushed which provides the necessary foundation for either a "low volatility drift higher" like early/mid 2014 (good for equity bulls) or "low volatility consolidation" like early/mid 2015 (good for short equity vol bulls).
One does get the impression of "busting at the seams" from this chart (at least, my
) and I would ask, given the state of the global economy are equity vols priced appropriately? Taking a look at the CBOE put/call ratios, equity put/call ratio is still elevated but total put/call ratio is coming off some.
Breadth. Big change in participation since the last post, with the % of SP500 components above their 200SMA almost doubling (prev 27.6 cur 47.4). If the improvement carries into next month I might be adopting some more longs,but for me this is still on the fence. Other breadth measures are certainly weaker.
Also, consider how much higher participation was in 2013, that giant divergence is still sitting there.
TED spread still on the highs, no narrowing here, still cautious about this becoming structural (elevated, but not above 0.5).
Credit. Actually widened since the last measure before coming back in a little. The broader message is that we are still much narrower than the GFC, but the propensity towards widening is concerning. Not much in the way of "demand for risk" on show here.
Industrial metals look like they are consolidating. Optimistically, we can say, "at least the freefall has been arrested for now", but on the other hand this doesn't really look like a base from which new demand is built (opinions appreciated there).
Brent. Actually a good sign here that $50 is some kind of support. Volatility is still relatively high compared to 3y ago. It doesn't look like the beginnings of a rally to me, but I get the impression that most oil market participants would just settle for some short term price stability and are very tired of the rollercoaster.
BDI. Shipping has come way off, which is not a great sign, looking back on the chart it does look like a number above 800 has been supportive of equity prices so will be watching this level closely to see how we move around it.
No major updates to sentiment as only small shift has occurred with some investors moving away from a bearish 6 month outlook into neutral.
No major updates to valuations, although it will be interesting to see updated data as the US earnings season rolls through.
Bonus chart: total US capacity utilisation YoY % change, from FRED.
BDI. Shipping has come way off, which is not a great sign, looking back on the chart it does look like a number above 800 has been supportive of equity prices so will be watching this level closely to see how we move around it.
No major updates to sentiment as only small shift has occurred with some investors moving away from a bearish 6 month outlook into neutral.
No major updates to valuations, although it will be interesting to see updated data as the US earnings season rolls through.
Bonus chart: total US capacity utilisation YoY % change, from FRED.
How many "analog" chart analysis have been blown out of the water since 2009? I would say: all of them.
How many more would it take before people start to accept that it's not a valid forecasting method purely on empirical outcomes? Even if it turns out that this particular analog forecasts the next crash perfectly, at best we can say a broken clock is right twice a day, considering how many similar analysis have turned out bunk.
Safehaven has a small handful of good contributors on their blogroll (those who are already widely read elsewhere), but otherwise it is a great place to visit if you want to lose some money (speaking from experience).
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All good points Sinner. Thanks for replying.
First time i've seen safe haven, but not the first doomer post thats for sure. THey still get me from time to time
Trembling Hand
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Anyone been looking at this one?
"Well, you know this is a bull market!"
"Well, you know this is a bull market!"
I'm holding a bunch of the NQ component stocks, Apple, Ebay, Gilead, Garmin, Intel, NetApp, Seagate, Western Digital and a few other tech stocks.
Spotted this on VICE today,
http://motherboard.vice.com/en_ca/r...he-war-in-syria-complex-systems-theorists-say
Commodity Traders Helped Spark the War in Syria, Complex Systems Theorists Say
The title is obviously a little sensationalist but the research covered (and link to abstract) is interesting enough. I'm asking around my academic friends for a copy of the full paper.
http://motherboard.vice.com/en_ca/r...he-war-in-syria-complex-systems-theorists-say
Commodity Traders Helped Spark the War in Syria, Complex Systems Theorists Say
The title is obviously a little sensationalist but the research covered (and link to abstract) is interesting enough. I'm asking around my academic friends for a copy of the full paper.
Trembling Hand
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The sooner they pull the 1000 or so keyboard warriors out of their homes, line them up against the wall and put a bullet in their heads the better!! Damn day traders!!
hehe, the abstract claims
So apparently not just daytraders up against the walls.
I got a copy of the paper but haven't had a chance to read it yet.
Trembling Hand
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OMG! Its spreading,
Georgia Man Smashes Door at Waffle House After the Price of Sausage Biscuits Goes Up By 50 Cents
Go long gold and guns.......
Trembling Hand
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Anyone who trades with AMP futs ever get "NFA rebates"? Just noticed it today on my statement and no idea what it is?
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typo. Should say NFI.
Did you get overcharged or overpay for something to the National Futures Association?
Trembling Hand
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No idea. That would seem to be what happened but no word from AMP. They probably saw my last months trading and felt sorry for me so decided to give me back some bro....
skc
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No idea. That would seem to be what happened but no word from AMP. They probably saw my last months trading and felt sorry for me so decided to give me back some bro....
Lol. The Futures Association recognises that futures trading is a zero sum game. There are no winning traders without the losers. The NFA rebate was introduced in order to acknowledge the contribution of losers to the industry as a whole...
P.S. I can't shake the feeling that the second day reaction to the FOMC change of stance would be negative...
Trembling Hand
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Lol. The Futures Association recognises that futures trading is a zero sum game. There are no winning traders without the losers. The NFA rebate was introduced in order to acknowledge the contribution of losers to the industry as a whole...
Makes sense!
The DAX is setting it up for ya nicely then.
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