CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
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So the options expired worthless as i understand since VIX went nowhere...
Very surprising, isn't it?!
So... is the market now thinking no taper in the immediate future? Or tapering is just being delayed for a month or two?
The tone of the Fed statement makes it a bit uncertain when taper will start... this is going to be a fun monthly event (even more so than it has been for the past few years).
Speakers
12:30EDT/16:30GMT Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George speaks on "The Federal Reserve and the Economy" before the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research Shadow Open Market Committee meeting
12:40EDT/16:40GMT US Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo Speaks on Challenges in Global Financial Services (New Haven, Connecticut)
12:55EDT/16:55GMT US Fed's Bullard Speaks on "U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy" before a New York Association for Business Economics Luncheon
13:45EDT/17:45GMT Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota gives academic talk at NYU Stern - Source TradeTheNews.com
Very surprising, isn't it?!
So... is the market now thinking no taper in the immediate future? Or tapering is just being delayed for a month or two?
The tone of the Fed statement makes it a bit uncertain when taper will start... this is going to be a fun monthly event (even more so than it has been for the past few years).
Very surprising, isn't it?!
So... is the market now thinking no taper in the immediate future? Or tapering is just being delayed for a month or two?
The tone of the Fed statement makes it a bit uncertain when taper will start... this is going to be a fun monthly event (even more so than it has been for the past few years).
I really have very little understanding of how the taper is supposed, or actually going, to play out in real terms in the market. Just being wary, relatively tight ranges and low participation in my chosen markets.
Low participation? I'd think so, the HSI is open but its mid-autumn festival in China...the Shanghai market is closed.
ha, yeah not just today. Have a look at how september opened (with a bang) then look at the daily ranges since the 5th.
After 2 weeks in India for work and only minimal trading access, I am back in the seat and looking at all the new highs on the indexes I track, and wondering how sustainable it is, then I look at breadth and it's telling me still not yet, we just aren't seeing the deterioration which we saw running into the flash crash or 2011 ugliness and definitely nothing like the insane breadth weakness running into the GFC. Even the Aussie market seems "healthy" in this respect, with indices retracing on resources pain, rather than pushing higher.
I also note some of my more predictive stuff (an example of which I posted not long ago in its own thread) concurs that these new highs aren't especially dangerous, with focus on various market fundamentals playing a much greater role than macro scare risk.
For long term stuff this is definitely not the place to be initiating new longs, but on the short term I would not fight the trend and look for little swings here and there as well as trying to capture those wonderful low volatility drifts when they come about.
Since I last checked in, cumulative NYSE breadth is certainly starting to look interesting compared to the NYSE broad ETF, third push without a new high...you can see it as weakness on the Summation Index, barely registering above 100!
View attachment 54429
NASDAQ cumulative breadth definitely a lot stronger, and again you can definitely see it reflected in the appropriate Summation Index.
View attachment 54430
Also interesting to note that most historically reliable valuation measures for the SP500 (CAPE, MV/GNP, Tobins Q, etc) seem to be in the top 5-10% most expensive of all available measurements and these expensive areas have always led to poor long term returns for investors and good opportunities for those with long volatility and value type strategies.
EDIT: I am not necessarily clearing existing longs out of the book just yet, but might start looking for short term signals to go short an index intraday and cover at the close.
What do those charts mean sinner? In lamens terms
Babobank: Fed will taper sooner or later.
EDIT: I am not necessarily clearing existing longs out of the book just yet, but might start looking for short term signals to go short an index intraday and cover at the close.
Currencies acting a bit funny this morning, AUD has been thinner than usual but volume traded pretty good so far, reckon we could get some volatility today
On another note, how people in a democratic country can let Berlusconi happen, i don't know...
I think were are going to need a black swan on top of the shut down to really get a bit of action. Unless the shut down itself shows up some ugly crack.
Most are still focusing on fundamentals of individual companies.
Not enough selling yet.
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