Inflation

[Value Hunter]

Yeah, I meant to say less than two, but I had the 1.5 figure in my head because I had just fact checked it before posting, I am not sure why I wrote one, just a typo I guess. It’s been something I have been thinking about for a while.

Either way, my point remains, Australian birth rates are not creating population growth, only reason we are growing is immigration.

It’s a fact in pretty much most of the developed world, the global birth rate is about 2.3 or 2.5 depending on source, because it’s propped up by Africa and the Middle East. so most developed nations that want to maintain their population will require immigrants from the nations with higher birth rates.

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I am personally against population growth as it is just a ponzi scheme that is kicking the can down the road and crushing the average persons standard of living (especially in Australia). I think population shrinkage if managed well is not catastrophic like many people assume it is. Estonia for example has had a shrinking population since 1990 and they have been doing just fine.

And yes in a "first world" country the replacement rate of birth is usually around 2.1

I would argue that the divergence between the inflation rate actually faced by the average consumer in Australia and what the CPI figures say is quite large at the moment. I feel that the average person in Australia in reality is facing double digit inflation. I could write a lengthy post about the short comings of official CPI figures if I wanted to. If anyone here only had their cost of living rise by 1.2% in the past quarter feel free to post here and let me know.

 

[divs4ever]

I am personally against population growth as it is just a ponzi scheme that is kicking the can down the road and crushing the average persons standard of living (especially in Australia). I think population shrinkage if managed well is not catastrophic like many people assume it is. Estonia for example has had a shrinking population since 1990 and they have been doing just fine.

And yes in a "first world" country the replacement rate of birth is usually around 2.1

i like population growth if the infrastructure is already established ( to cater for that growth )

however , the infrastructure is inadequate and deteriorating , and 'the skill-shortage ' used to justify the increased migration , was self-inflicted and will create a doom-loop unless there are radical policy changes

this issue has been fermenting for decades

 

[sptrawler]

i like population growth if the infrastructure is already established ( to cater for that growth )

however , the infrastructure is inadequate and deteriorating , and 'the skill-shortage ' used to justify the increased migration , was self-inflicted and will create a doom-loop unless there are radical policy changes

this issue has been fermenting for decades

The skills shortage has come about by the privatisation boom and the false narrative of the boom in technology career opportunities, which didn't eventuate.

This along with ended up with the universities being the biggest employer of our youth, rather than the apprenticeship career path, how we turn that around when the Government are no longer involved in employing a blue collar workforce is close to impossible IMO.
Also there appears to be a complete lack of interest at all levels of Govt, in returning to the public service model, of carrying out the work themselves and providing the jobs for apprentices.
Much easier just to throw taxpayers money at contractors and import the workforce for them.

 

[divs4ever]

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[Value Collector]

I am personally against population growth as it is just a ponzi scheme that is kicking the can down the road and crushing the average persons standard of living (especially in Australia). I think population shrinkage if managed well is not catastrophic like many people assume it is. Estonia for example has had a shrinking population since 1990 and they have been doing just fine.

And yes in a "first world" country the replacement rate of birth is usually around 2.1

I would argue that the divergence between the inflation rate actually faced by the average consumer in Australia and what the CPI figures say is quite large at the moment. I feel that the average person in Australia in reality is facing double digit inflation. I could write a lengthy post about the short comings of official CPI figures if I wanted to. If anyone here only had their cost of living rise by 1.2% in the past quarter feel free to post here and let me know.

I don’t really mind if the global population began a slow shrink over time, but as long as the global population keeps growing, we kind of have a responsibility to accept some more people here.

We actually have plenty of room, we just have to figure out a way to get the population to spread out a bit more.

I think most if the problems you are talking about come from growth that happens to fast, slow population growth is ideal.

 

[Smurf1976]

the infrastructure is inadequate and deteriorating , and 'the skill-shortage ' used to justify the increased migration , was self-inflicted and will create a doom-loop unless there are radical policy changes

this issue has been fermenting for decades

I recall a lot of discussion about this during the period 1994 - 98 roughly.

Discussion as in formal workplace meetings at one end of the spectrum through to mainstream media articles and comment at the other.

 

[Smurf1976]

how we turn that around when the Government are no longer involved in employing a blue collar workforce is close to impossible IMO.

If you look at how we used to train tradespeople, it basically fell into two categories.

1. Business that manufactured, processed or refined something here in Australia.

2. Something owned by government. Utilities, public housing authority, transport department, etc.

That covered most of it, that's how such people were mostly trained and government intentionally trained more than they needed to keep. Signed them up for 4 years initially and at the end of that some would end up being kept on but many would go and work in the private sector.

 

[mullokintyre]

I am not sure Mullo understood the chart.

Really??

mick

 

[Value Hunter]

I don’t really mind if the global population began a slow shrink over time, but as long as the global population keeps growing, we kind of have a responsibility to accept some more people here.

We actually have plenty of room, we just have to figure out a way to get the population to spread out a bit more.

I think most if the problems you are talking about come from growth that happens to fast, slow population growth is ideal.

There is not enough infrastructure being built to adequately service the current population in Australia let alone to enable population growth without crushing living standards.

 

[Value Collector]

There is not enough infrastructure being built to adequately service the current population in Australia let alone to enable population growth without crushing living standards.

We are building infrastructure, as I said the recent surge in population growth is just probably happening too fast.

 

[Value Collector]

Really??

mick

Yeah, you seemed to think that you could get insights into population growth by looking at that chart, which obviously you can’t.

It’s a great chart to look at if you are trying to gain insights into airport traffic, not so great if you want to see population growth.

It’s ok, we all make mistakes, it’s an interesting chart, but it useless for the purpose you thought it was for.

 

[divs4ever]

I don’t really mind if the global population began a slow shrink over time, but as long as the global population keeps growing, we kind of have a responsibility to accept some more people here.

We actually have plenty of room, we just have to figure out a way to get the population to spread out a bit more.

I think most if the problems you are talking about come from growth that happens to fast, slow population growth is ideal.

room , yes

the willingness to remove bottle-necks and constrictions , apparently not

third world citizens not so bad third world conditions , very bad ( ask New York and Chicago how 'sanctuary cities are going )

 

[divs4ever]

We are building infrastructure, as I said the recent surge in population growth is just probably happening too fast.

??? what like widening the road outside the acreage , it was gazetted and resumed before 1975 , they are now lass than 10% towards completing it , but they will probably have to redo the existing highway before finishing time anyway and BTW the highway is flood-prone , i don't see any earth/bridge-raising to stop that from happening again and again and again ( seems to happen nearly every year
)

 

[Value Collector]

??? what like widening the road outside the acreage , it was gazetted and resumed before 1975 , they are now lass than 10% towards completing it , but they will probably have to redo the existing highway before finishing time anyway and BTW the highway is flood-prone , i don't see any earth/bridge-raising to stop that from happening again and again and again ( seems to happen nearly every year
)

Pretty much everything, schools, hospitals, police stations, apartments, housing estates, water, highways etc etc.

Rome wasn’t built in a day.

 

[SirRumpole]

Pretty much everything, schools, hospitals, police stations, apartments, housing estates, water, highways etc etc.

Rome wasn’t built in a day.

This country should stabilise population growth until we have enough infrastructure to service our current population.

That means we need more housing, hospitals, schools and energy infrastructure.

No good bringing in migrants to build the stuff and then dominate it themselves.

Bring them in to build if we need to then send them home.

 

[qldfrog]

Pretty much everything, schools, hospitals, police stations, apartments, housing estates, water, highways etc etc.

Rome wasn’t built in a day.

China did it in less than a generation..
, I arrived 30y ago and discovered below par infrastructure in a first world country
In 30y, the only major road in Qld managed to add one lane from Brisbane to Noosa , I have never seen that stretch without roadworks and related slowdown or traffic jam .
3 decades for one lane addition on less than 100km
Population in se qld seems to have doubled, we have not built a single dam but managed to host the Commonwealth Games, prepare an Olympic, build the gabba twice, and a desalination plant which has never been used and will be rusted out of function when it will next be needed..
We build, and rebuild 1 lane bridges below flood water level on minor roads at a few millions a pop..personal experiences in both Moreton bay and Noosa shires..
Infrastructure in Australia should be a laughting matter and do not mention mobile or internet access .
This has a cost on an economy in reduced productivity and ongoing costs.an evil circle...

 

[Value Collector]

China did it in less than a generation..
, I arrived 30y ago and discovered below par infrastructure in a first world country
In 30y, the only major road in Qld managed to add one lane from Brisbane to Noosa , I have never seen that stretch without roadworks and related slowdown or traffic jam .
3 decades for one lane addition on less than 100km
Population in se qld seems to have doubled, we have not built a single dam but managed to host the Commonwealth Games, prepare an Olympic, build the gabba twice, and a desalination plant which has never been used and will be rusted out of function when it will next be needed..
We build, and rebuild 1 lane bridges below flood water level on minor roads at a few millions a pop..personal experiences in both Moreton bay and Noosa shires..
Infrastructure in Australia should be a laughting matter and do not mention mobile or internet access .
This has a cost on an economy in reduced productivity and ongoing costs.an evil circle...

You are not seeing the forest for the trees then, because heaps of infrastructure has been steadily built in SE Queensland.

1, In SE QLD there are no new dams, but the existing dams were all connected into a network, water recycling has been added and a desalinating plant added, and dam capacity has been added.

2, you say no new roads but the capacity on the syd bris route has tripled, almost every town bypassed, an extra gate way bridge. A tunnel under the Brisbane river, and an inner city bypass network. Under ground bus network.

3, Just in the Area of Brisbane I grew up in there are 4 entire new schools in the last 20 years.

4, extra runway built at the airport.

5, many expansions at the royal Brisbane hospital + new satellite hospitals u der construction.

6, new train lines and extra stations

There are many, many more examples.

 

[Value Collector]

This country should stabilise population growth until we have enough infrastructure to service our current population.

That means we need more housing, hospitals, schools and energy infrastructure.

No good bringing in migrants to build the stuff and then dominate it themselves.

Bring them in to build if we need to then send them home.

All of that stuff is constantly being built, and under construction right now, everywhere I look I see new housing built, energy infrastructure and schools.

Refer to the post above I replied to Frog of some of the examples I could think off just off the top of my head.

It’s a bit hard to open a new hospital with out the immigration that allows a doctor to move hear, have you noticed the number of Doctors in hospitals are immigrants? And the a lot of the workers that build them are immigrants.

 

[SirRumpole]

It’s a bit hard to open a new hospital with out the immigration that allows a doctor to move hear

We actually train doctors here you know.

And the a lot of the workers that build them are immigrants.

And a lot of them will use the facilities if they stay here, which is why their stay should be temporary until they finish the job.

 

[Value Collector]

We actually train doctors here you know.



And a lot of them will use the facilities if they stay here, which is why their stay should be temporary until they finish the job.

Not enough doctors obviously, and many of the doctors we train are immigrants or children of immigrants. Nearly 50% of our population are either immigrants themselves or children of immigrants, obviously we aren’t doing to bad at handling immigration.

I renovated two houses in 2021, and two thirds of the workers were not born here, yes they are using housing capacity, but they also add to capacity by building and renovating houses.

1 carpenter will use 1 house, but over his career he can build many houses, same with all the other trades, they produce much more than they consume.