Inflation

[waterbottle]

View attachment 161152

Considering that FNGU is entirely U.S tech and china tech, and tech is a growth play, and china is going to hell in a handbasket while interest rates are also soaring, it makes sense that this is getting pummeled the hardest.

If growth plays and china are going to get pummeled then the only thing that's going to get smashed worse is a chinese growth play and this has all three in spades.

FNGD to bet against it

Also NDX100 dumps when the Fed starts cutting. SQQQ, FNGD, TECS.

 

[waterbottle]

Using crypto as the risk barometer, we're either approaching a buy the dip moment, or about to plummet to new lows...

 

[divs4ever]

Using crypto as the risk barometer, we're either approaching a buy the dip moment, or about to plummet to new lows...
View attachment 161173
View attachment 161174

yes i had noticed extra emotion in the crypto-verse

could be a real field of worms now Blackrock is playing crypto ETFs

i wonder how many derivatives whales are playing crypto angles ( apart from Blackrock )

 

[over9k]

 

[IvoryWolf]

For anyone who's been following my weekly video updates of the markets, a firm close below the 100 level on the TLT was noted in the week ending 28th July - further interesting times are certainly ahead (especially with the upcoming meeting at Jackson Hole this week).

Check out a summary of my own thoughts (as well as the market's thoughts and expert opinion by economists and central banks) in this article published earlier today:

TLT: A Bearish Barrier Amidst Upcoming Interest Rate Hike Decisions

Clear technical levels are evident on the TLT chart from the past for prospective positioning of trade opportunities. Click here for more on TLT ETF.

seekingalpha.com

 

[mullokintyre]

A couple of data points.
1. Oz used car prices have fallen to their lowest level since 2020.

2. The prbable reason is that people can not afford fuel for the cars anyway.






3. Hate to be one of the folks about to be pushed off that mortgage rate cliff.

Mick

 

[sptrawler]

The wealthy will pick up some bargains, not much changes.

 

[mullokintyre]

A couple of data points.
1. Oz used car prices have fallen to their lowest level since 2020






3. Hate to be one of the folks about to be pushed off that mortgage rate cliff.
View attachment 161241
Mick

just a liitle morevon that mortgage cliff.
As the writer says, its not so much a cliff as a wave of resets.
Either way, we have only just started the process.
Mick

 

[frugal.rock]

just a liitle morevon that mortgage cliff

That should be mor on
?

 

[IvoryWolf]

A couple of data points.
1. Oz used car prices have fallen to their lowest level since 2020.
View attachment 161238
2. The prbable reason is that people can not afford fuel for the cars anyway.

View attachment 161242




3. Hate to be one of the folks about to be pushed off that mortgage rate cliff.
View attachment 161241
Mick

I don't mean to be nasty here, but I disagree with the statement "They don't even explain to you you have changed from fixed to variable" in the tweet of #3. This is part of a contract that is signed upon agreement when entering into a mortgage. No explanation should be required at the time of expiry (this should be understood when SIGNING the contract). However, I am of the belief that more financial education should be instilled in school about all areas of finance. Absence of that - more accountability towards the brokers and banks at the point of 'sale' / signing contracts to ensure understanding of agreements by customers. But perhaps I'm too much of an idealist...

 

[over9k]

Only problem is that basically all the non-usd currencies are dumping because times are getting tough. Times getting tough = luxuries getting cut from the shopping list and travel is about as far up that particular list as it gets.

 

[divs4ever]

But perhaps I'm too much of an idealist

not in my opinion , but then if explained properly not many would enter a mortgage ( popping the 'housing bubble ' )

 

[IvoryWolf]

not in my opinion , but then if explained properly not many would enter a mortgage ( popping the 'housing bubble ' )

Ooooooo... good point @divs4ever - couldn't agree more. Could only imagine the fear in people's eyes had the 'possibility' of risk been mentioned about taking on a mortgage when interest rates were at such fantastic lows and Governor Lowe was 'reassuring' everyone that interest rates would not rise prior to 2024. Sarcasm? Me? Never. Realism? Definitely.

 

[mullokintyre]

Ooooooo... good point @divs4ever - couldn't agree more. Could only imagine the fear in people's eyes had the 'possibility' of risk been mentioned about taking on a mortgage when interest rates were at such fantastic lows and Governor Lowe was 'reassuring' everyone that interest rates would not rise prior to 2024. Sarcasm? Me? Never. Realism? Definitely.

Does it really matter other than in the futile exercise of looking to someone/something else to blame?
The real problem is the reversion itself.
Discussions as to whether individuals should or should not have entered into mortgages will not change that nor ameliorate its effects.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

Does it really matter other than in the futile exercise of looking to someone/something else to blame?
The real problem is the reversion itself.
Discussions as to whether individuals should or should not have entered into mortgages will not change that nor ameliorate its effects.
Mick

there is a trend to teach to younger citizens not to think deeply

given that handicap there is plenty of blame to apportion sure such a trend would be acceptable in a government-centric regime , but in a 'free-market economy ' it amounts to heresy how will you ever improve without initiative and forward thinking .

replace the word 'mortgage' with superannuation ( which is now compulsory ) and you see the same traps

remember not all who would take out a mortgage are potential renters ( they may 'stay at home' longer until inheriting or saving a sizable deposit taking upward pressure from the market )

 

[IvoryWolf]

Does it really matter other than in the futile exercise of looking to someone/something else to blame?
The real problem is the reversion itself.
Discussions as to whether individuals should or should not have entered into mortgages will not change that nor ameliorate its effects.
Mick

And that is my point exactly @mullokintyre - everyone needs to take accountability and responsibility for their own actions, rather than looking for a scapegoat and someone to blame. However, how many people have whinged and complained and blamed Governor Lowe, for instance? Just take a look at all of the Facebook forums. Really? Did everyone think that interest rates were going to remain that low forever? And now we have the consequences - particularly that graph of red presented by yourself yesterday afternoon. I agree with you about the effects - they could be dire - but as most Aussies will generally say "She'll be right mate", with a thumbs up and a wink (maybe whilst they're dying inside). But will it? We'll just have to wait and see. I hope so, for everyone's sake.

 

[wayneL]

And that is my point exactly @mullokintyre - everyone needs to take accountability and responsibility for their own actions, rather than looking for a scapegoat and someone to blame. However, how many people have whinged and complained and blamed Governor Lowe, for instance? Just take a look at all of the Facebook forums. Really? Did everyone think that interest rates were going to remain that low forever? And now we have the consequences - particularly that graph of red presented by yourself yesterday afternoon. I agree with you about the effects - they could be dire - but as most Aussies will generally say "She'll be right mate", with a thumbs up and a wink (maybe whilst they're dying inside). But will it? We'll just have to wait and see. I hope so, for everyone's sake.

Some of us tried to tell them hey?

 

[sptrawler]

I don't mean to be nasty here, but I disagree with the statement "They don't even explain to you you have changed from fixed to variable" in the tweet of #3. This is part of a contract that is signed upon agreement when entering into a mortgage. No explanation should be required at the time of expiry (this should be understood when SIGNING the contract). However, I am of the belief that more financial education should be instilled in school about all areas of finance. Absence of that - more accountability towards the brokers and banks at the point of 'sale' / signing contracts to ensure understanding of agreements by customers. But perhaps I'm too much of an idealist...

I love your sentiment, but over the last 30 years Australia's education system and it's outcomes has been sliding down the literacy and numeracy scale, so it borders on comedy to think they would introduce financial education, when they can't even teach them simple multiplication, reading or even the times table.
like I said it's a great thought but very low probability and a pointless exercise as only a very few would understand it and the wealth gap would only increase.

not in my opinion , but then if explained properly not many would enter a mortgage ( popping the 'housing bubble ' )

The property ponzi in Sydney/Melbourne has been and still is a great play, as long as the governments keep supporting it, it is just about a sure gamble, I wish I had been on it.
But I was silly enough to think the Government cared about housing affordability and would pop the bubble, my bad I should have known better when the politicians are riding the wave.
All the Government has to do is ensure the very bottom of the ponzi is affordable, then the scheme is self supporting, therein lies the reason for the increase in basic wage and first home buyer deposits I mean grants.



Like those in Sydney who bought a house are doing it tough, but most will still have positive equity, only a very few wouldn't be in front.

Why would the Government want to prick it? reduction in stamp duty, reduction in bank stability and a definite recession, all just to help those most needy. As if that's going to happen.

Keep pumping baby, keep pumping.

 

[mullokintyre]

For some commentators, supply side issues have been the driving force behind recent bouts of inflation.
Well going by the two main freight indices, the freight component is no longer an issue.
Firstly the BDI. Its now at the same level it was in 1the late 1970's, well down from recent highs, and 85% down from the all time highs in 2007.


Then there is the container freight index.
Once again its back to where it was pre covid days.

 

[sptrawler]

The commentators should read the ABS info IMO, it makes for interesting reading, make of it what you will.

Wage Price Index, Australia, September 2024

The WPI measures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics

www.abs.gov.au

​