Inflation

[over9k]

Better than expected but still a drop in real terms. Problem is, it's another large figure that they actually want lower - higher wages means a stronger demand side.

Normally wage growth is a good thing but when wage growth is high as well as inflation is high then you have a demand side that's stratospheric - it's not just being driven by a supply side restriction. This is how you get what's called a "wage-price-spiral". A simple google/investopedia search of it will tell you what that is.

"Worst case scenario for the BOE".

Probably another 50 points of rises by the end of the year for the U.K rather than the 25 that had been priced in. I'll bring up the GILTS numbers when I can get around to it. Been a busy day.

 

[over9k]

It's not a dress rehearsal though, we swear.

 

[over9k]

XJO down 1.5% today. AUD down another 0.2% and now closer to 64 cents than 65. It's still not too late!

 

[over9k]

XJO/AUD continue to take it in the proverbial.

 

[over9k]

63 points more worth of hikes now being priced in by year's end for the U.K.

So two more 25 point hikes virtually a certainty, 50/50 probability of a third.

 

[sptrawler]

The Aussie Dollar isn't looking too healthy either.


1 AUD = 0.50848 GBP Aug 15, 2023 19:30 UTC.
1 AUD = 1.084133 NZD Aug 15, 2023 13:39 UTC
1 AUD = 0.87 SGD
1AUD = 0.87 CAD

 

[over9k]

Fitch now as good as said it's about to downgrade their credit rating.

 

[noirua]

Inflation in the U.K. remains higher than many comparable nations. According to the European Union's preliminary harmonized measures for July and others not included, Poland inflation was 11%, Sweden 9.3%, UK at 6.8%, German at 6.5%, France at 5.0%, Italy at 6.4%, Belgium at 4.14%, Luxembourg at 3.2% and Spain at 2.1%. The eurozone as a whole had inflation at 5.3% in July, falling from 5.5% in June, while inflation in the U.S. was 3.2%, Mexico 4.79%, China at -0.3%, Hong Kong at 0.2%, Turkey 38.2%, Russia 3.24%, Indonesia 3.52%, Venezuela at 1,198%, Argentina at 51.2%, and Canada 3.3%.

Inflation is falling in Australia and New Zealand. Here's how we stack up with the rest of the world

Inflation might be softening in some places around the world, but the price of things like groceries remains high.

www.abc.net.au

 

[waterbottle]

RIP China.

Let's see what the RBA does tomorrow. Surprise hike?

 

[over9k]

RIP China.

Let's see what the RBA does tomorrow. Surprise hike?

Not if the housing lobby has anything to say about it

 

[sptrawler]

RIP China.

Let's see what the RBA does tomorrow. Surprise hike?

Well if it isn't, it will be a shot in the arm, for the pollies property portfolios. ?

 

[wayneL]

Not if the housing lobby has anything to say about it

Our Pacific Pesos won't like it. (If they don't raise, or (gasp) drop it that is)

 

[over9k]

AUD just about to crack 64 U.S cents

 

[over9k]

Ruh-roh.

 

[over9k]

1 month chart:

 

[over9k]

2:1 with GBP coming up next.

 

[wayneL]

So essentially, (and I know there are other factors... China etc) we are destroying the value of our dollar for the benefit of a few over-indebted Muppets and hocked up politicians?

I propose we change our national language to some rough dialect of Spanish.

Caramba, amigos!

 

[over9k]

So essentially, (and I know there are other factors... China etc) we are destroying the value of our dollar for the benefit of a few over-indebted Muppets and hocked up politicians?

I propose we change our national language to some rough dialect of Spanish.

Caramba, amigos!

Economy. Whole economy. Think of exchange rate and interest rate like an economic health barometer - the lower it is the worse they are.

 

[divs4ever]

well initially we had the Holy Dollar and The Dump created from Spanish silver pesos .. well our current dollar isn't so holy now so maybe the dump is the fate we deserve for wandering off commodity backed currencies

 

[waterbottle]

I've started to notice a few more property listings in Sydney with prices now stagnant.

Not sure if RBA is going to tolerate the AUD being beaten this low, particularly when crude has risen.