Inflation

[divs4ever]

well an associate in the transport industry , often complains about staff shortages and poached staff

but i note LAU and KSC have traveled well despite the challenges , so consolidation in the industry , perhaps ?

( i hold bothLAU and KSC )

 

[waterbottle]

NVDA with a big earnings report. Looks like it's doing well to hold up everyone

 

[wayneL]

? ? ?

Inflation? I'm thinking of putting mine in a safety deposit box!!!

 

[waterbottle]

? ? ?

Inflation? I'm thinking of putting mine in a safety deposit box!!!

View attachment 161332

Made of silver?

 

[wayneL]

Made of silver?

Ya'd think so!

I also have one of these in my ute. Mind you it's nearly 30 years old and has probably driven nearly a million nails. Still with the original shaft and in great condition, over $200 at the time, so value over the years.

Still.... Holy shyyt!!

PS real men use the 14oz version of this

 

[over9k]

U.S jobless claims come in at 230k vs estimated 240k, futures all take a hit in response, especially growth plays.

This nvidia pump has been quite a sell opportunity.

 

[waterbottle]

The market is back to normal. Bad is good, good is bad.

 

[wayneL]

The market is back to normal. Bad is good, good is bad.

...and, Sept/Oct approacheth.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Like the theft of copper , tool theft from their utes is a huge problem on sites, tradies say.

 

[farmerge]

Like the theft of copper , tool theft from their utes is a huge problem on sites, tradies say.

If it is not nailed, bolted or conceted then beware.
Recently had a couple of chains and binders i use to tie down one of my tractors on the truck removed.
Obviously the low life had a greater need of them than I did.

 

[over9k]

Crunch time approacheth.

 

[mullokintyre]

For some commentators, supply side issues have been the driving force behind recent bouts of inflation.
Well going by the two main freight indices, the freight component is no longer an issue.
Firstly the BDI. Its now at the same level it was in 1the late 1970's, well down from recent highs, and 85% down from the all time highs in 2007.
View attachment 161294

Then there is the container freight index.
Once again its back to where it was pre covid days.

View attachment 161295

Just a bit more on freight indicators.
Yellow, one of the US larger trucking chains, went into bankruptcy earlier this month.
Although it has struggled for some time, it may be a harbinger of further unpleasant tidings.
Many small trucker owener/operatros businesses are running at a loss in the US.
From The produce news

August 24, 2023
Two transportation brokers report that truck rates are extremely low without a lot of hope of overall improvement on the horizon. On the other hand, a San Joaquin Valley grape shipper said his rates have been climbing as he recently secured a load to Texas that was about 15 percent higher in mid-August than it was earlier in the month.
“Trucking is not a way to get rich right now,” said Mark Durfee, general manager of Giltner Logistics, based in Twin Falls, ID. “There are no earth-shattering rates out there. Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Utah are soft. The Southeast is soft. The Midwest is soft. You tell your California grape shipper to give me a call. I’ll find him a truck.”
Yet Jared Lane, CEO of Grapeco Farms, based in Delano, CA, insists his rates have been climbing and as California grape shipments are expected to continue to increase for at least another month. He said truckers have the upper hand. “The rates are not as high as they were a couple of years ago, but they are increasing. The rate (to his Texas buyer) was $4,600 last week and this week it was $5,200,” he said on Aug. 16.
Durfee agreed. He said some produce haulers can demand more for isolated pockets, but overall truck rates are down and not keeping up with costs. He noted on Aug. 17 that from Central California to Boston, a spot rate of $8,000 is currently on the high side, with many being much lower than that. Typically, July and August will see produce truck rates hit their peak as tree fruit and grape volume from the San Joaquin Valley creates great demand, but that has not happened this year.

Durfee added that “Southern California and Arizona are just wastelands right now if you are on the spot market. The rates are horrible.”

Coast-to-coast summer rates can easily surpass five digits. During the peak of the truck shortage in 2020 and 2021, cross-country rates above $13,000 were not unheard of. That equates to a per mile cost well above $4.

“Right now, truckers are only getting $2.50 per mile and often have to settle for $1.50 for the backhaul,” Stenderup said.

He blamed the lower rates mostly on the efficiency of the marketplace, not on an oversupply of trucks or an undersupply of product. He noted that the truck boards create a situation where everyone — including the shipper and buyer — can see almost exactly where the demand is and where the trucks are.

Those truck boards also allow truckers to efficiently move from one load to the next. In essence that lets a trucker do more hauls in a month or a year. More hauls mean more supply even though the actual supply hasn’t increased.

Normally it takes us 4-5 days to book a truck for direct shipments. Right now we’re able to get a truck within 24 hours. A couple weeks ago we had one in one hour, a full trucks, not LTL (Less Than Truckload).
Prices are down now 25-35 percent from a year ago or so. Prices are up a bit the last few weeks, mostly from Yellow/Holland shuttering.
RV trailers are also in the basement.

My contact friend ships liquid consumable chemicals to greenhouse and nursery operations for water treatment.

There will be an increase in shipping but will that happen before an industry shakedown with a huge number of bankruptcies? Before a full blown recession?

Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

OZ retail sales out from ABS

Given the level of inflation, the 2.1 increase YOOY is actually a decrease in sales in real terms.


The graph in current prices seasonally adjusted shows a consistent downturn for the last year.

As can be seen from the chart below, the biggest surprise was the increase in department store retailing.


As one might expect, the ACT seems almost immune to any forms of slowdown.

Mick

 

[divs4ever]

As one might expect, the ACT seems almost immune to any forms of slowdown.

except a tax-payer strike

 

[qldfrog]

except a tax-payer strike

It must be fun to live there, being completely removed from economic constraints.
This might explain some of our politicians decisions

 

[mullokintyre]

Oz inflation continuing to fall.
Evil Murdoch Press

Australia’s inflation readings continued to cool rapidly for July and should be shifting the conversation in financial markets away from whether the peak in interest rates has been reached, to a far bigger discussion about the timing of coming interest rate cuts.
The monthly consumer-price index rose 4.9 per cent in the 12 months to July, well below the expected rise of 5.2 per cent, and compares with an increase of 5.4 per cent over the year to June, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. The stellar July result compares with a peak in December of an 8.4 per cent increase.

The rapid cooling in prices growth so far in 2023 will already be putting downward pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent forecast that inflation will run at a rate of just 4.1 per cent by the end of this year, down from 6.0 per cent in the second quarter.
So dramatic is the capitulation in inflation pressures, it won’t be long before the guns of the media and economic commentators are turned back on the RBA for tightening interest rates too far in the first place.

With Michele Bullock set to become RBA governor in just a matter of weeks, it now looks likely that she will soon be able to start talking about the prospect of reducing interest rates in early next year, instead of the second half of 2024 as most economists currently expect.

The fly in the ointment is of course fuel increases.
Diesel is well over $2 in our area, so with so much of our economy dependent on transport via trucks, that will not make transport costs weaken too much.
Mick

 

[Knobby22]

Oz inflation continuing to fall.
Evil Murdoch Press

The fly in the ointment is of course fuel increases.
Diesel is well over $2 in our area, so with so much of our economy dependent on transport via trucks, that will not make transport costs weaken too much.
Mick

Looks like a soft landing. Congrats due to all involved.

 

[mullokintyre]

Looks like a soft landing. Congrats due to all involved.

Thanks.
mick

 

[over9k]

RBA pauses exactly as expected. Snoozefest of a week.

 

[mullokintyre]

Todays RBA decision to leave rates where they are, may have been the trigger for the AUD USD pair to fall 0.5%.
With oil creeping up again to high 80's in USD terms, there is now a possibility that OZ will now start to import inflation due to falling currency perturbations.
Fuel prices will continue to increase which will feed into transport costs,
The big question is, do we go into a recession, into a deflationary spiral, or a period of stagflation?
Mick