Inflation

[waterbottle]

Australian GDP at 0.2%... Pretty much negative once they revise downwards

 

[mullokintyre]

Australian GDP at 0.2%... Pretty much negative once they revise downwards

The ABS says that it was 2.1% in nominal terms, so I guess that is after "seasonal adjustments".
It can't be after taking inflation into account, as inflation during that time was 2.1%, which would mean zero growth.
So in real terms GDP fell.
Given that the previous quarter the inflation was 1.3% and GDP growth was 0.6% for the quarter, that was a contraction in real term.
It is interesting to note that the ABS said that on a percapita basis, GDP actually fell 0.2% in the quater just ended, after managing a mere 0.1% per capita in December.
Are we in a technical recession?
from ABC News

The household saving ratio fell to 3.7 per cent in the March quarter, from 4.4 per cent.

It is sitting at the lowest level since the June quarter 2008, which was during the global financial crisis.

"The household saving ratio fell to its lowest level in nearly 15 years," Ms Keenan said.

As as aside, I just don't understand why it effectively takes over two months to get these figures out.
These figures are for the and of March quarter, here we are in June just getting them.
They really become of mere histroical interest, and other things have overtaken them, and I wonder if P Lowe had these figures available to him yesterday, would the RBA have raised rates?
We are poorly served by so many government institutions, its a wonder why they exist at all.
Mick

 

[waterbottle]

Chinese exports down 7.5%.... consensus was 0.4%. So much for the reopening recovery...
If China isn't selling, then who isn't buying? And if China isn't selling, then who isn't China buying from?

Things that make you go hmmmmmmm

 

[sptrawler]

This is another sector that members need to be wary of, single use clothing, it is a huge trend in todays younger generation but not only will tighter spending affect it, but also legislation is in the wind.
I can't think of where else to post it, as it will be hit by consumer spending tightening and also Governments are clamping down on it.



But what about the clothes on your back? It turns out they’re a problem, too, especially when they’re worn once and discarded — a “fast fashion” practice that is on the rise, with negative consequences for the environment, according to a recent consumer survey.

That’s right: More people are wearing outfits a single time and then tossing them in the garbage, where they end up in landfills or are incinerated.

A London-based polling firm, Censuswide, estimated in July that British consumers would spend more than $3 billion on one-use outfits this summer. Just the people who buy clothes specifically for going to music festivals spend about $300 million on 7.5 million outfits that are worn only once, according to the report.

So what’s the big deal? Is a one-and-done outfit really so bad for the environment?

Consumers are buying more clothes than ever before and wearing them far less frequently. The average consumer buys 60% more clothing than they did 15 years ago and keeps it half as long, according to figures released by the United Nations Alliance for Sustainable Fashion this year.

In the U.S., the amount of clothing waste has ballooned in the past several decades. More than 10 million tons of textiles were discarded in landfills in 2015, per the most recent available figures from the EPA, compared with just over 1.7 million tons in 1960. The production of textiles is also rising rapidly. More than 16 million tons of textiles were generated in the U.S. in 2015 compared with 1.76 million tons in 1960.

 

[mullokintyre]

There has been a lot of previous discussion about how inflation the world over has been driven by supply side issues.
If one looks at charts for both the BDI and for the Global container freight index, one can see that the freight part of of the supply side issues has largely evaporated.
The BDI is now back to where it was pre COVID.


The container freight index is back to where it was pre covid, and is about 1/5th of its high in September 2021.


Mick

 

[over9k]

It feels like the GFC all over again. Only difference was that I'd just finished school, not uni then.

Talking to our family real estate agent there's apparently an awful lot of junior real estate agents seriously rethinking their career choices at the moment too. They've just been too late to the party/missed the boat.

The difference is that this time a lot of it isn't going to be temporary.

 

[Smurf1976]

This is another sector that members need to be wary of, single use clothing, it is a huge trend in todays younger generation but not only will tighter spending affect it, but also legislation is in the wind.
I can't think of where else to post it, as it will be hit by consumer spending tightening and also Governments are clamping down on it.

Another thing I take from this is consumers are fundamentally irrational. What they say, what the really think, and what they do are all very different things.

Young people: Must fix climate change, against labour exploitation, against landfill, complaining about cost of living, etc.

Also young people: Buying single use clothing.

I don't want to derail the thread onto those other examples but my point is simply that what consumers say and what they actually do are completely different things.

 

[over9k]

Alright smurf, here's some irrationality:

Meanwhile:

View attachment 157294

Superior goods.

Quite a good bit of analysis done by some, well, analysts on this: They've taken a look at both the financials of the companies and what deals they've made with what payment providers and what percentage of their sales are being made on/with what payment methods and so on and so forth and wouldn't you know it, a lot, like a LOT of sales have been made on credit - credit cards, buy now pay later providers, all that kind of stuff, and it's THOSE sales that have plummeted in the recent quarterly results.

The "boom" we saw in so much of this frivolous BS was hugely credit driven. Classic case of the financially irresponsible (fake people) using credit to try to make themselves appear to have a lot more money than they really do. Consumerism at its core.

Now don't get me wrong, I (and plenty of others) predicted months ago that consumer goods sales would plummet and services demand (holidays, theme parks, casinos, comedy shows etc etc) would skyrocket once the world started reopening and that's *exactly* what has happened but it's just interesting to note how so much of these luxury brand sales have been made with money people just simply did not have.

It'd be very interesting to take a look at what percentage of sales of services (the aforementioned holidays, theme parks, live theatre etc etc) are being made on credit. To my mind they just aren't the kind of thing you use credit to pay for (I've only ever used credit to cover some kind of unexpected expense that's been more than what I keep in my everyday account) but you can use afterpay to buy-now-pay-later a domino's freaking pizza now so maybe I'm just underestimating how absurd this BNPL craze is actually going to get.

If they're being bought with credit too then it's only a matter of time before the demand for services, like consumer goods before it, falls off a cliff as well.

Food for thought.

"These brands specifically target people they know cannot afford them".

Lol. It's almost as if the companies know why people want their ****/what kind of people want their ****.

 

[divs4ever]

Anyone for a 0.5% interest rise either next time, or the time after?

was waiting to see if the more logical 0.4% ( considering where we are first ) was a hike near-term

0.5% ( or 0.4% ) hike after the minimum wage raise , that sounds plausible ( after all REAL inflation is still much higher )

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile, russians destroy the nova kakhovka dam, energy prices spike in response.

 

[waterbottle]

Bank of Canada hikes to 4.75 after a 3 month pause...

 

[farmerge]

Alright smurf, here's some irrationality:




"These brands specifically target people they know cannot afford them".

Lol. It's almost as if the companies know why people want their ****/what kind of people want their ****.

When dealing with plastic and not cash is the problem. No concept of how much sits in the wallet.

 

[Value Collector]

When dealing with plastic and not cash is the problem. No concept of how much sits in the wallet.

I am a bit of the opposite, cash in my wallet seems like lazy money just there to be spent guilt free, so it’s easy to give it away.

But cash in the bank is in my offset account earning interest working for me, spending that seems like giving away real money that sh ok I’d be working for me.

With the ease of checking your balance through phone apps, right on the phone you are using to pay with, I am not sure the new generation sees much difference between cash and digital payments.

 

[divs4ever]

for me cash in the bank ( 'savers' ) account is mostly reserves for buying extra stocks/REITs we still have inflation to resist going forward , my guess is that most of the price rises we have had are baked in , sure food and fuel MIGHT come down in time , but other out-goings are more liable to increase rather than decrease , so that portfolio will need to grow along with my probable income needs

i will be steering towards the greater self-sufficiency path

educational times coming for the younger generations

 

[farmerge]

I am a bit of the opposite, cash in my wallet seems like lazy money just there to be spent guilt free, so it’s easy to give it away.

But cash in the bank is in my offset account earning interest working for me, spending that seems like giving away real money that sh ok I’d be working for me.

With the ease of checking your balance through phone apps, right on the phone you are using to pay with, I am not sure the new generation sees much difference between cash and digital payments.

Only problem there is the new eneration generally don't know the value of a dollar.
Oh so very easy to buy with plastic just figures on the receipt and means very little.
If forking out of the wallet and there isn't enough of the folding in it hmm can't buy it.

 

[over9k]

Clown world.

 

[sptrawler]

View attachment 157966

Clown world.

Yep the Government has its foot to the floor on the accelerator, while asking the RBA why it can't slow down the car, clown world for sure. ?

Maybe the government should concentrate on the housing crisis, that is going to cause some really serious social issues very soon IMO. This is becoming a very serious issue and I don't think the Canberra bubble is aware of how it could blow up in their faces, time will tell.
The real problem is people are beginning to expect the Govt to fix it for them, when in reality they are making it worse for them, the longer the Govt takes to NO, the bigger the backlash will be.

 

[farmerge]

Yep the Government has its foot to the floor on the accelerator, while asking the RBA why it can't slow down the car, clown world for sure. ?

Maybe the government should concentrate on the housing crisis, that is going to cause some really serious social issues very soon IMO. This is becoming a very serious issue and I don't think the Canberra bubble is aware of how it could blow up in their faces, time will tell.
The real problem is people are beginning to expect the Govt to fix it for them, when in reality they are making it worse for them, the longer the Govt takes to NO, the bigger the backlasd will be.

We were in the Midland Gate shopping centre for lunch a couple of days ago.
Wouldn't have thought that too many people are concerned about inflation.
Food hall pretty full ie 11.30am, struggled to find 2 chairs together and the shops on the fringe had people coming and going while were hoeing into Chinese tucker.

 

[mullokintyre]

We were in the Midlanf Gate shopping centre for lunch a coupel of days ago.
Wouldn't have thought that too many people are concerned about inflation.
Food hall pretty full ie 11.30am, struggled to find 2 chairs together and the shops on the fringe had people coming and going while were hoeing into Chinese tucker.

Yo Farmer, do you recall what was the demographic of these people?
one of my rellos says that she along with a few other senior cits, go to the shopping malls as an outing.
In hot weather, the air conditioning is cheap, In cold weather the heating is cheap.
They have to neither heat nor cool their own place, plus they can meet other like minded old farts.
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

We were in the Midlanf Gate shopping centre for lunch a coupel of days ago.
Wouldn't have thought that too many people are concerned about inflation.
Food hall pretty full ie 11.30am, struggled to find 2 chairs together and the shops on the fringe had people coming and going while were hoeing into Chinese tucker.

The daughter who is a low income worker, is still giving the two grandsons lunch money, instead of making them sandwiches.
I don't interfere, just observe.