Inflation

[divs4ever]

Brent crude now nosediving too. There's your recession fear indicator, none of this yield curve inversion rubbish.

the yield curve inversion ( to those who believe ) is a long term indicator ( 12 to 18 months ahead )

now oil is more interesting given several big players no longer trade exclusively in Petro-dollars ( a real risk of a disconnect between real commodity sales and the paper-markets , much like silver )

 

[over9k]

Terminal rate now dropped from 5.65 to 4.95 in three days. Wild.

There's only one reason this has happened and it isn't because they think inflation's tamed.

Whole curve's a good 75-85 points off its peak and futures are still almost entirely in the toilet with the exception of some of the FANG and those are obviously all only up because rates are down.

 

[over9k]

KEK.

Two year just cracked below 4% too. Lol. Oh tonight's going to be a bloodbath.

 

[moXJO]

View attachment 154306

KEK.

Two year just cracked below 4% too. Lol. Oh tonight's going to be a bloodbath.

It's like clown world.

 

[greggles]

It's like clown world.

Indeed, and the clowns are the politicians that have created this mess in the first place. We wouldn't have the issues with inflation now if there hadn't been so much money printing after COIVD hit. As Milton Friedman said, "inflation is caused by too much money chasing after too few goods." Well, this is what happens when you increase the money supply to an unprecedented degree and think that the chickens won't eventually come home to roost.

Now, of course, the ones really getting shafted are those on low incomes because as inflation destroys the buying power of their meagre wages, they aren't getting pay increases to offset the damage being done. It will only be getting much worse for them, and western economies will continue to lurch from one economic crisis to the next for the foreseeable future.

On the positive side, the volatility will be good for traders.

 

[farmerge]

That is exactly what we are.... And they get to write the terms of the loan contract.

On a risk vs reward basis it's a pretty bad deal.

Trust is a fragile thing.

Trust coming from a bank. I don't think so. Had a ripper many years ago with a loan. Trust and caring did,'t exist.

 

[farmerge]

It's like clown world.

Bring on the clowns

 

[qldfrog]

Bring on the clowns

Market is up as rates will stop growing: we are saved.
Thanks Biden
Sorry.I have to stop typing to start loading my ute tray with banknotes, I need to buy a loaf of bread this morning..
or I could buy the bakery: I just can find that ounce of gold I buried under the jacaranda....

 

[qldfrog]

Famous last words of the day

'We're not going to do that again': No federal bailout for Silicon Valley Bank

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday that the federal government would not bail out Silicon Valley B...

www.9news.com.au

Rol

 

[waterbottle]

Crypto up, yields down, stonks not doing anything spectracular ala covid bottom although still up.
Looks like the start of a risk on rally, except that we still have the feed meeting next week...
LOL if CPI comes in higher than expected too

 

[qldfrog]

Crypto up, yields down, stonks not doing anything spectracular ala covid bottom although still up.
Looks like the start of a risk on rally, except that we still have the feed meeting next week...
LOL if CPI comes in higher than expected too

Nahh CPI can be twisted to fit again...a whole week to forge delay data...
I kind of expect a flash of risk on this week and did a daily switch bear to bull last afternoon...small gamble with quick exit planned..that is pure trading..not investor

 

[Belli]

Last week I booked flights to FNQ in August through a travel agent. I was told they are feeling a slight downturn with bookings becoming light on.

Could be due to reported cost-of-living pressures.

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile, BOIL quietly ran 13%

 

[farmerge]

Market is up as rates will stop growing: we are saved.
Thanks Biden
Sorry.I have to stop typing to start loading my ute tray with banknotes, I need to buy a loaf of bread this morning..
or I could buy the bakery: I just can find that ounce of gold I buried under the jacaranda....

Mr Frog you may need ute and trailer markets is as bad as yesterday at the moment. Start digging.

 

[moXJO]

I don't think this is the tipping point. Just the groaning and creaking of an overburdened structure.

Feels like we have stupidity to come yet.

 

[waterbottle]

I don't think this is the tipping point. Just the groaning and creaking of an overburdened structure.

Feels like we have stupidity to come yet.

Agreed, lots of articles coming out about SVB being different t to all the other banks, somehow escaping same regulatory requirements etc etc.

 

[over9k]

A lot of other big banks are buying SVB stuff up so that actually bodes well for confidence, unlike with lehmann where nobody would touch it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64937251

"Bought" for one pound but importantly, taking on the obligations of whatever they've bought.

 

[over9k]

Bonds still dumping everywhere folks, including here in AU:

 

[waterbottle]

View attachment 154359

Bonds still dumping everywhere folks, including here in AU:

View attachment 154360

Dunnooooo 6 month is headin to back 5%. Too volatile to make any sense of this right now.

If I understand this right, bank funding is now totally independent of whatever short term bonds are priced at as the Fed will loan to them at whatever purchase price they paid.
So the banks should be able to remain liquid. If that works.

Which begs the question, why should the Fed stop hiking while they've got CPI printing welll over 2%?

 

[wayneL]

View attachment 154306

KEK.

Two year just cracked below 4% too. Lol. Oh tonight's going to be a bloodbath.

View attachment 154359

Bonds still dumping everywhere folks, including here in AU:

View attachment 154360

Quite the opposite to what I was expecting but, Hell, I'll take it.

Explosion|Implosion.... Pffft, whatevaaahhh!