Inflation

[over9k]

Aramco posts blowout annual profit.

I am shocked I tell you, truly shocked.

 

[mullokintyre]

Roubini now thinks we will only get 25BPS next month, possibly none.
Mick

 

[wayneL]

oh oh , and read the bank fine print most banks treat you as an unsecured creditor

That is exactly what we are.... And they get to write the terms of the loan contract.

On a risk vs reward basis it's a pretty bad deal.

Trust is a fragile thing.

 

[waterbottle]

Roubini now thinks we will only get 25BPS next month, possibly none.
Mick
View attachment 154288

CME fed watch tool now flipped.

98% chance of a 25bps hike at next meeting.

 

[waterbottle]

Historically, markets bottom once the Fed is done cutting. So are we staring down the final down leg?
Also what happened to all he talk about a soft landing? Is that even possible with a bank failure?

 

[over9k]

Historically, markets bottom once the Fed is done cutting. So are we staring down the final down leg?
Also what happened to all he talk about a soft landing? Is that even possible with a bank failure?

Well there's the question of recession vs inflation and we all know what the general public (and establishment) would prefer.

Futures soared in response to the silicon valley bank rescue package and have been melting all day, NDX was +1.3 and is now down to +0.7 and dropping along with all of europe remaining deep into the red with no climbout in sight.

Edit: NDX down to +0.5 and still going. Not giving me confidence at all.

 

[over9k]

Dax is still 2.2 into the red despite this. The recession narrative has well & truly taken hold.

Edit: Now -3.0 and still going. Lol.

Edit 2: Now -3.2. German 2 year now set for "largest drop on record".

I'm actually wondering if this might be good news for my degen gas play as if things go to shite they'll be absolutely desperate to keep the factories open/running.

With that being said, it's the same story everywhere - rates are off the boil but markets are plummeting anyway and it's the recession fears that are driving both.

Markets clearly assuming the central banks will let inflation run hot rather than deeper recession.

 

[over9k]

Terminal rate now dropped from 5.65 to 4.95 in three days. Wild.

There's only one reason this has happened and it isn't because they think inflation's tamed.

 

[over9k]

Well there's the question of recession vs inflation and we all know what the general public (and establishment) would prefer.

Futures soared in response to the silicon valley bank rescue package and have been melting all day, NDX was +1.3 and is now down to +0.7 and dropping along with all of europe remaining deep into the red with no climbout in sight.

Edit: NDX down to +0.5 and still going. Not giving me confidence at all.

Now down to +0.1 and everything else is red. USD is now pulling HARD. Oh my.

 

[waterbottle]

Terminal rate now dropped from 5.65 to 4.95 in three days. Wild.

There's only one reason this has happened and it isn't because they think inflation's tamed.

Yep, US 6 months was going to be the peak, looks like it's heading to below 5 wtf

 

[waterbottle]

View attachment 154297

Dax is still 2.2 into the red despite this. The recession narrative has well & truly taken hold.

Edit: Now -3.0 and still going. Lol.

Edit 2: Now -3.2. German 2 year now set for "largest drop on record".

I'm actually wondering if this might be good news for my degen gas play as if things go to shite they'll be absolutely desperate to keep the factories open/running.

With that being said, it's the same story everywhere - rates are off the boil but markets are plummeting anyway and it's the recession fears that are driving both.

Markets clearly assuming the central banks will let inflation run hot rather than deeper recession.

Up until now the only thing the Fed has been reacting to has been economic data.

If the Fed wasn't swayed by the UK bond crisis, then should they really be swayed by SVB going bankrupt?

I mean, there's a chance here they St Jerome has really seen the light and is willing to let zombies die.

 

[over9k]

Up until now the only thing the Fed has been reacting to has been economic data.

If the Fed wasn't swayed by the UK bond crisis, then should they really be swayed by SVB going bankrupt?

I mean, there's a chance here they St Jerome has really seen the light and is willing to let zombies die.

Unlikely. Too much carryon about "repeat of 2008". They'd probably nationalise them before they let them go under and that's in the united states, a country that considers nationalisation to be anathema.

I've really got to wonder if moral hazard is now going to become a problem. If they rescue SVB (and they have) are the rest of them now going to throw caution to the wind?

 

[waterbottle]

Unlikely. Too much carryon about "repeat of 2008". They'd probably nationalise them before they let them go under and that's in the united states, a country that considers nationalisation to be anathema.

I've really got to wonder if moral hazard is now going to become a problem. If they rescue SVB (and they have) are the rest of them now going to throw caution to the wind?

They've rescued the depositors, not the bondholders or shareholders.

The remaining debtors are now probably going to have to deal with a more restrictive lender or turn to the remaining, likely conservative, banks.

 

[waterbottle]

Holy **** the 2-10 year spread...

Bond yields dropping hard.

 

[over9k]

Holy **** the 2-10 year spread...

Bond yields dropping hard.

Yeah, and not for a good reason.

 

[divs4ever]

Very true, you let inflation run, the economy/ country collapses and like a phoenix the gov of the day creates a "new" currency to restart a cycle. ALWAYS since Babylon and Roman time.you just do not want to live thru these reset time..but this is not your..our choice is it?
In the meantime most lose it all.

that is the usual plan

but will it be different this time

 

[waterbottle]

****, Biden is going to be on TV

 

[divs4ever]

Holy **** the 2-10 year spread...

Bond yields dropping hard.

better them than me ( buying bonds )

 

[divs4ever]

****, Biden is going to be on TV

LOL ,

must be more important than a toxic train-wreck

 

[over9k]

Brent crude now nosediving too. There's your recession fear indicator, none of this yield curve inversion rubbish.