Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Inflation

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over9k said:
The question is why they're dumping and it's not because markets think inflation is under control.
Click to expand...
Indeed!!!!!!!!!

Either way it my thesis is that the debt market will blow up somehow. Exactly how that would happen I have never had a clue, I'm not that smart

But basically the stock market is the bond market's bitch... And the bond market has got out it's ropes, mouth gags and riding crops.

IOW, the stock market is a derivative of the bond market and we should be watching Bonds rather than stocks

FWIW
 

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Term deposit and "special bonus" savings account rates have dropped already. I trade through commsec but my other stuff I do through HSBC as they do foreign currency accounts and even do foreign currency savings & term deposit accounts you can view here: https://www.hsbc.com.au/accounts/products/foreign-currency-term-deposits/

You obviously expose yourself to exchange rate fluctuations but as I showed before, you'd be +8% in barely over a month if you'd timed an AUD-USD move just a few weeks back:

34563475634734573756.jpg

You get lots of perks of being a "premier" customer if you deposit enough cash with them too ;)
 
wayneL said:
Indeed!!!!!!!!!

Either way it my thesis is that the debt market will blow up somehow. Exactly how that would happen I have never had a clue, I'm not that smart

But basically the stock market is the bond market's bitch... And the bond market has got out it's ropes, mouth gags and riding crops.

IOW, the stock market is a derivative of the bond market and we should be watching Bonds rather than stocks

FWIW
Click to expand...
Yep and if the authorities have a choice between inflation or recession and are going to choose inflation then we bet on inflation.
 
waterbottle said:
CPI as expected but core holding up..... This is sticky and tricky
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Futures all moved (dropped), energy now the best sector premarket ;)

My two cents reference the next rate hike: It'll be exactly as stated in forward guidance. We've had this "are they still going to do what they said they'd do" question over and over and over and over and markets are now starting to think it too:

24356324634256456.jpg2345234624364326.jpg

The whole curve is well & truly off its dip and everything also bounced in response to the CPI data. This whole thing's been a storm in a teacup.

We now start the clock for when fixed income rates are right back where they were. It'll be before the end of the week the way we're going at the moment.

Yesterday was a hell of a buying opportunity.
 
over9k said:
Futures all moved (dropped), energy now the best sector premarket ;)

My two cents reference the next rate hike: It'll be exactly as stated in forward guidance. We've had this "are they still going to do what they said they'd do" question over and over and over and over and markets are now starting to think it too:

View attachment 154378View attachment 154379

The whole curve is well & truly off its dip and everything also bounced in response to the CPI data. This whole thing's been a storm in a teacup.

We now start the clock for when fixed income rates are right back where they were. It'll be before the end of the week the way we're going at the moment.

Yesterday was a hell of a buying opportunity.
Click to expand...
Yes, agree, an overreaction.
 
over9k said:
Unlikely. Too much carryon about "repeat of 2008". They'd probably nationalise them before they let them go under and that's in the united states, a country that considers nationalisation to be anathema.

I've really got to wonder if moral hazard is now going to become a problem. If they rescue SVB (and they have) are the rest of them now going to throw caution to the wind?
Click to expand...
5elc7i1a9ena1.jpg

Because fcuk your 250k limit, right?

Deposit insurance now guaranteed to infinity by the U.S government, now if we're one of a bank's creditors we just dump a couple hundred million in a term deposit instead (none of this corporate bond rubbish), default probability now effectively 0%.
 
262462474357.jpg

Tech layoffs continue, finance industry in structural decline, but I can't see why healthcare would be getting smashed too. That one seems quite odd.
 
And now that all the carryon is over, we can get back to this little conundrum:

23456246524562456.jpg

I made quite a big series of posts about this a little while ago and it hasn't gone away, nor is going to.

Services basically just means labour, food, and energy. It's people going out and doing stuff and paying someone else to facilitate it.
 
Not sure about energy, WTI crude is about to crack through $70...


Interesting to see what happens with goods inflation v. services. The latter is the main driver for CPI at this stage, but goods inflation keeps heading downwards.
Is it possible to have goods inflation negative I. E. Deflationary, whilst services remains positive?
 
over9k said:
And now that all the carryon is over, we can get back to this little conundrum:

View attachment 154382

I made quite a big series of posts about this a little while ago and it hasn't gone away, nor is going to.

Services basically just means labour, food, and energy. It's people going out and doing stuff and paying someone else to facilitate it.
Click to expand...

:cigar:

woohoo.jpg
 
waterbottle said:
Not sure about energy, WTI crude is about to crack through $70...


Interesting to see what happens with goods inflation v. services. The latter is the main driver for CPI at this stage, but goods inflation keeps heading downwards.
Is it possible to have goods inflation negative I. E. Deflationary, whilst services remains positive?
Click to expand...
U.S dollar's been pulling HARD though, which accounts for a significant amount of the moves in basically all USD denominated assets.

But as smurf's pointed out, the supply side is not exactly dramatically improving.
 
Credit suisse now staring down the barrel, europe markets all in the toilet (banks the worst), fixed income rates plummeting, U.S futures getting pummeled while the USD screams, it's just silicone valley bank contagion round two.
 


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