Neither. I was all ready to go 50% into FNGU until the tech earnings last night flipped everything. Now, now I agree with a headline I just saw about how things are now "extremely uncertain".Was expecting a run and agree with the "double top" theory. I'm pretty loaded on tech, because the biggest degenerates always fomo the most into it.
I don't thInk it has legs though.
Yeah it looks a bit irrational to me.Neither. I was all ready to go 50% into FNGU until the tech earnings last night flipped everything. Now, now I agree with a headline I just saw about how things are now "extremely uncertain".
It might be a hold cash and pucker for a while now.
Inflation though appears to have subsided so the soft landing hypothesis is still valid.US jobs and services PMI out - both posting a significant beat to the upside for Jan 2023. Markets dumping, probably in fear of an inflation busting belting courtesy of JPowell.
Really not that much of a drop though and the AUD dropped more than 2% against the USD so the night actually ended up neutral.US jobs and services PMI out - both posting a significant beat to the upside for Jan 2023. Markets dumping, probably in fear of an inflation busting belting courtesy of JPowell.
The revisions to the data go back to June 2022, and for some reason, were all to the upsideIn accordance with annual practice, the establishment survey data released today have
been benchmarked to reflect comprehensive counts of payroll jobs for March 2022. These
counts are derived principally from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW),
which counts jobs covered by the Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax system. In addition,
the basis for industry classification in the establishment survey has been revised
from the 2017 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) to NAICS 2022.
Approximately 10 percent of employment was reclassified into different industries as
a result of the NAICS revision. Implementation of NAICS 2022 resulted in major
revisions reflecting content and coding changes in the retail trade and information
sectors, as well as minor revisions within the mining and logging, manufacturing,
wholesale trade, financial activities, and other services sectors. Many industry
titles and descriptions were also updated to better reflect official NAICS titles.
Revisions due to both the NAICS 2022 conversion and the benchmark process affected
more historical data than typical in the annual benchmark process. The NAICS
revisions are reflected for the entire history of affected industries for both
seasonally and not seasonally adjusted data. Details of the updated titles and new,
discontinued, and collapsed industries (and resulting changes to tables B-1 through
B-9) are available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnewseries.htm.
The total nonfarm employment level for March 2022 was revised upward by 568,000
(+506,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis, or +0.3 percent). The average not
seasonally adjusted benchmark revision (in absolute terms) over the past 10 years is
0.1 percent.
The over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for March 2022 was revised from
+6,425,000 to +7,096,000 (seasonally adjusted). Table A presents revised total
nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis from January to December 2022.
All revised historical establishment survey data are available on the BLS website at
www.bls.gov/ces/data/home.htm. In addition, an article that discusses the benchmark
and post-benchmark revisions and other technical issues is available at
www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm.
The revisions - in case there was any question - were to the upside, and made the Establishment survey data appear even stronger. A lot stronger in fact: there were upward revisions to all monthly payrolls reports starting with June 2022 as shown in the chart below.
But heres the kickerBut the one place where the revisions were most notable was in the Household survey which is used to calculate the actual number of employed workers. What it showed was an even more remarkable surge in employment in January, which surged by a whopping 894K in January, and together with the upward revised 717K in December, a grand total of 1.6 million in two months.
... the number of full-time workers in March 2022 was 132.587 million. Fast forward to January 2023 when it was 132.577: that's right: total US full-time workers declined by 10K over a period of 10 months. Meanwhile, part-time workers soared from 25.908 million to 27.400 million, an increase of 1.492 million!
So, I doubt that this report will do much for the feds thinking.This is what Bloomberg chief economist Anna Wong put it: "The January jobs report showed extremely robust growth, higher than the highest estimate in the Bloomberg survey. If it seems too good to be true, that’s because it is too good to be true — the gain is mostly due to seasonal factors and revisions to past data. The Fed likely won’t place too much weight on this report in formulating policy."
There was a short discussion on the radio yesterday morning. Apologies if already posted or mentioned.
Has high inflation peaked in the US?
The US Federal Reserve's decision to lift interest rates by 25 basis points was widely expected, it's the smallest rate rise in nearly a year.
Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Policy told RN Breakfast that he believes the "crisis of high inflation" will soon be over in the US, if its not already.
Guest:Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Michigan
Has high inflation peaked in the US? - ABC listen
The US Federal Reserve's decision to lift interest rates by 25 basis points was widely expected, it's the smallest rate rise in nearly a year. Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Policy told RN Breakfast that he believes the "crisis of high inflation" will soon be over in the US...www.abc.net.au
John De wouldn't it be great to be a fly on the wall when the Reserve brains trust are waffling on around the round (oblong, rectangle, square) table knowing full well that their decision (if it is a rates increase) won't affect them one iota.
Oh me, oh my, that's my dream of living without a worry, but I don't think it is on the cards somehow.When you don’t need a car because your job covers all transportation, and your income is set to rise automatically on a regular basis, and you live in a gated community, and all your friends are multi millionaires, it’s pretty difficult to know how the rest of the community live & pay bills.
If you want to see how that works out, take a watch of this movie, it shows how those who live outside of the gated community live.When you don’t need a car because your job covers all transportation, and your income is set to rise automatically on a regular basis, and you live in a gated community, and all your friends are multi millionaires, it’s pretty difficult to know how the rest of the community live & pay bills.
Might watch this, looks interestingIf you want to see how that works out, take a watch of this movie, it shows how those who live outside of the gated community live.
I found it certainly an eye opener, loosely based on fact.Might watch this, looks interesting
sptrawler an interesting read. I don't mind a bit of blood and guts type of story.If you want to see how that works out, take a watch of this movie, it shows how those who live outside of the gated community live.
It wasnt so much blood and guts, just a very realistic expose of life in Jo Burg, the ex pat South African guys I worked with said it was fairly mild compared to reality.sptrawler an interesting read. I don't mind a bit of blood and guts type of story.
That's unfair to the hard working RBA blokes and blokesses, they will probably get villified on social media, about the very worst thing that can happen to a person.John De wouldn't it be great to be a fly on the wall when the Reserve brains trust are waffling on around the round (oblong, rectangle, square) table knowing full well that their decision (if it is a rates increase) won't affect them one iota.
Yeah, they can't do 15 as some would assume it's the last one, and 25 implies staying open-ended.40.... To make it a normal number.
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