Inflation

[sptrawler]

I'm in 40 camp.
I think the journo's with mega mortgages are trying to talk it down.

In the real world, outside of Sydney/Melbourne, things are still bubbling along, what's the old saying?
"The higher you go, the further you fall". Could be the house prices in some areas.

Nick Scali delivers record revenue, no slowdown yet​

RBA’s flurry of interest rate hikes since May are not hurting furniture sales for Nick Scali which has posted record revenue and a boom in furniture orders for the start of 2023.

 

[waterbottle]

Australian retail sales down 3.9% MoM. Didn't the US have similar results? Is the consumer in trouble?

 

[divs4ever]

Australian retail sales down 3.9% MoM. Didn't the US have similar results? Is the consumer in trouble?

those with large debt commitments would be , at best official rates will only plateau in the near term , meanwhile other costs will edge up

 

[JohnDe]

Australian retail sales down 3.9% MoM. Didn't the US have similar results? Is the consumer in trouble?

Depends on where you look, and the time frame.

Nick Scali books interim record sales and is not seeing any slowdown in January despite economic headwinds

Sales orders for the chain in January were almost 23 per cent above pre-Covid-19 levels.

Nick Scali is the first major national retailer to report its interim results for fiscal 2023 and its guidance that sales through January – traditionally the chain’s strongest month of the year – had remained strong despite the economic headwinds bodes well for the wider sector this reporting season.

The furniture group also enjoyed the extra sales and profitability for the first six months of 2023 from its acquisition of Plush-Think Sofas with profit margins from the newly acquired sofa specialist improving through the first half.

But analysts took a more pessimistic view of the furniture chain’s first-half results, pointing to a 26 per cent drop in customer deposits for new furniture against the same time last year and a 33 per cent slide against 2022 as an indicator of easing supply chain delays and slowing demand.

 

[divs4ever]

Depends on where you look, and the time frame.

first NCK seems to be an outlier in the consumer discretionary sector

then you have to second guess where the new sales are coming from

are the customers improving the home ready for extra residents ( mum , dad , or adult kids ) , are there still some 'home-flippers ' operating or maybe air BNB investors are coming back into the game

 

[JohnDe]

first NCK seems to be an outlier in the consumer discretionary sector

then you have to second guess where the new sales are coming from

are the customers improving the home ready for extra residents ( mum , dad , or adult kids ) , are there still some 'home-flippers ' operating or maybe air BNB investors are coming back into the game

I didn't realise that AirBNB investors left the market. From my sources they had a bumper holiday period, huge profit increase compared to the same period last year.

As for "improving the home ready for extra residents (mum, dad, or adult kids)", They must be very well off to purchase premium furniture for such projects, when there are the likes of Ikea and Freedom. But each to their own.

 

[divs4ever]

given that virus scare and the resultant travel restrictions i would have thought buying a new property to BNB would have been less popular not to mention solid house prices during that period , now sure existing BNB players could have switched to short-term leases ( 3 or 6 months ) ( and replaced the worn furniture later )

 

[JohnDe]

given that virus scare and the resultant travel restrictions i would have thought buying a new property to BNB would have been less popular not to mention solid house prices during that period , now sure existing BNB players could have switched to short-term leases ( 3 or 6 months ) ( and replaced the worn furniture later )

I'm not sure what you mean by short term leases of 3 to 6 months.

The AirBNB owners I know rent by the day or week, no leases, and 30 days is the maximum allowable by the rules in place. Not many change the furniture, demand for the properties was extremely high, it is more common to change the TV than furniture.

 

[mullokintyre]

This table from The ABS was released today.


from it we can see that Volume of sales has dropped by 0.2 percent over the quarter, which suggests that the majority of the fall was due to prices easing.
This is reflected in the YOY comparison to the 2021 quarter., where volume of sales was up around 1.8%, but the value was up 7.5%, suggesting that most of the sales increases were due to price increases.
When you look at the various categories for the retail sales from the same page,



It would seem that non food items were where the contraction mainly took place.
When you look at the non seasonality adjusted sales, things seems somehwat more rosy (depending on your viewpoint).


And finally, eating out is almost immune to anything.



Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

This table from The ABS was released today.

View attachment 152676
from it we can see that Volume of sales has dropped by 0.2 percent over the quarter, which suggests that the majority of the fall was due to prices easing.
This is reflected in the YOY comparison to the 2021 quarter., where volume of sales was up around 1.8%, but the value was up 7.5%, suggesting that most of the sales increases were due to price increases.
When you look at the various categories for the retail sales from the same page,
View attachment 152677


It would seem that non food items were where the contraction mainly took place.
When you look at the non seasonality adjusted sales, things seems somehwat more rosy (depending on your viewpoint).

View attachment 152678
And finally, eating out is almost immune to anything.
View attachment 152679


Mick

Disregard the first part of my previous post, i just realised that for some reason, the ABS shows monthly dollar sales, but then the comparison under neath is quarterly volume sales.
Sorry about that.
I should have read those headings more closely.
Me culpa.
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

The shopping centres/ food halls and pubs are still looking pretty full around Perth

 

[mullokintyre]

The shopping centres/ food halls and pubs are still looking pretty full around Perth

They folk at ABS have seasonally adjusted the WA spenders to the bottom of the pack with Victoria.

 

[sptrawler]

They folk at ABS have seasonally adjusted the WA spenders to the bottom of the pack with Victoria.

View attachment 152681

Is that compared to Christmas spending? ?

 

[mullokintyre]

Is that compared to Christmas spending? ?

Nah, its a rehash of the December figures. The talk is that much of the "normal" christmas spending was brought forward into November because of the black Friday sales, Halloween etc.
I am surprised they don't include Thanksgiving, we seem to have got every other scammy celebration from America.
Mick

 

[farmerge]

The shopping centres/ food halls and pubs are still looking pretty full around Perth

No shortage of clientele at the Midland food hall

 

[over9k]

Almost as if there's a few economies staring down the proverbial barrel at the moment huh?

Another degen FNGU buy at 420 tonight.

 

[over9k]

Sorry, make that NRGU*

 

[divs4ever]

Nah, its a rehash of the December figures. The talk is that much of the "normal" christmas spending was brought forward into November because of the black Friday sales, Halloween etc.
I am surprised they don't include Thanksgiving, we seem to have got every other scammy celebration from America.
Mick

just part of the cultural genocide they are planning so we blindly follow into 'wokeist cultural'

these poor clowns must think we are all silly school-girls who can get crushed by social isolation ( not understanding the smaller the 'in-crowd' , the less relevant they are )

 

[over9k]

Relevant

 

[waterbottle]

View attachment 152690

Relevant

Does this mean it's going to hurt for longer?