Inflation

[Knobby22]

This Andy Capp cartoon goes back to the 70s. Still relevant.

 

[divs4ever]

yes some British humour is timeless ( unlike their out-of-date policy-makers )

 

[over9k]

Judging by this week's selloff and how far futures are into the red I'd say that confidence in 25 rather than 50 has, shall we say, waned a little.

 

[over9k]

XOM reports:



Should've bought more yesterday. Dammit.

 

[over9k]

Fed raises 25 points (slows the rate) but states that the rises will now go on for longer. So we're still going to get to the same peak rate, it'll just be later than anticipated.

Markets pretty neutral on the news really!

Edit: seeing a bit of green but nothing like the movements we've seen in response to all the other hikes. About 1/5th of the volatility.

 

[waterbottle]

Fed raises 25 points (slows the rate) but states that the rises will now go on for longer. So we're still going to get to the same peak rate, it'll just be later than anticipated.

Markets pretty neutral on the news really!

Let's wait and see what happens at the grilling session in 30 min.

They're still on course for further hikes - no pivot.

Not bullish IMO given market expected 25bps but JPowell slapping back hopes of a monetary loosening.

 

[over9k]

Here's AU's numbers for those trading AU markets:

 

[waterbottle]

Here's AU's numbers for those trading AU markets:

View attachment 152467

Except that Aus CPI has continued heading upwards... Not sure how they can justify a slowdown if the premise for hikes was rising CPI!!

 

[waterbottle]

Job openings up, job creation low... Services inflation likely to be a persistent thorn. Let's see what JPowell says

 

[waterbottle]

Key points:

1. More work to do
2. Need price stability
3. Ongoing increases will be appropriate to be sufficiently restrictive (so we're not there yet?)
4. Need to be restrictive for some time
5. Acknowledges slow down in growth but points to continued elevation in jobs market
6. Labour market out of balance
7. Need more evidence that inflation is heading downwards
8. Inflation expectations remain well-anchored
9. Inflation remains too high despite recent falls
10. Continuing balance sheet reduction
11. Continuing to aim for 2% target
12. Full effect of monetary restraint will take time
13. 25bps hike selected given lag in effect. Will allow FOMC to review economic conditions and effects of hike.
14. Reducing inflation will require below trend growth and labour market softening
15. Starting the course until job is done

My take: going to hike until people lose more jobs or employers demand fewer workers.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Key points:

1. More work to do
2. Need price stability
3. Ongoing increases will be appropriate to be sufficiently restrictive (so we're not there yet?)
4. Need to be restrictive for some time
5. Acknowledges slow down in growth but points to continued elevation in jobs market
6. Labour market out of balance
7. Need more evidence that inflation is heading downwards
8. Inflation expectations remain well-anchored
9. Inflation remains too high despite recent falls
10. Continuing balance sheet reduction
11. Continuing to aim for 2% target
12. Full effect of monetary restraint will take time
13. 25bps hike selected given lag in effect. Will allow FOMC to review economic conditions and effects of hike.
14. Reducing inflation will require below trend growth and labour market softening
15. Starting the course until job is done

My take: going to hike until people lose more jobs or employers demand fewer workers.

Summarising, pain is good for you?

 

[waterbottle]

Summarising, pain is good for you?

Market loves it

 

[over9k]

Market loves it

Soft landing narrative is in.

 

[CityIndex]

Market loves it

Interesting that the market's initial reaction has been to take Powell's presser as dovish, when the comments he made actually seemed pretty hawkish

 

[mullokintyre]

Soft landing narrative is in.

Never let the facts get in the way of a good narrative.
Mick

 

[over9k]

Never let the facts get in the way of a good narrative.
Mick

I sold some NRGU at $602 and made a degen FNGU buy a few days back that I didn't mention on account of having absolutely no confidence in it at all but we got the 25 points this time so it's absolutely screamed. SOXL's been on an tear too but I've missed that.

I will mention that on all the other occasions that markets have gotten exactly what they wanted from the fed we've seen things scream on the day only to fall off a cliff the literal day after so it's going to be very interesting to see what tomorrow brings.

I bought some NRGU at 470 today, held on to my FNGU play, that's all I've done. META's reported earnings actually in line with estimates and is up 17% after hours so FNGU's deep into the green as well.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Pity the blocker needs to create content.

 

[waterbottle]

Nah JPowell Q&A sounded like he wanted to say they're pivoting, without saying they're pivoting.

Market loves it.
Bull run until something breaks, maybe housing?

 

[over9k]

Considering the dumps straight after the fed announcement day runs that we've seen, tomorrow & friday will be telling.

 

[mullokintyre]

Market loves it.

But for all that love, the DOW only ended up by 7 points, a miserly 0.02%
The NASDAQ did a little better, going up by 2%, and the NYSE was up 0.5%
The Canadians were not so impressed with the TSX going down by 0.01%.
Reckon people are still edgy, not believing the media beat up stories.
Mick