Inflation

[over9k]

In case anyone's wondering if the old barbell play is what to go for if you're thinking about a growth run - not this time. This time, it's pure tech driven.

 

[over9k]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google

40 basis points on the cards for AU now

 

[Knobby22]

According to the market, US interest rates to drop mid year. According to Alan Kohler on the ABC, the IMF are expecting a soft landing to the USA and a harder one for us.

Seems counterintuitive.

 

[over9k]

I've been saying that USA is going to be the best of a bad bunch for a long time.

Europe's still knocking on the door of what, 11%, officially?

 

[waterbottle]

View attachment 152481

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google

40 basis points on the cards for AU now

Phil Lowe was one of the first to signal a pause in 2022... I don't know if he'd have the nads to go for 40bps hike, let alone continue hiking much longer!

 

[over9k]

Phil Lowe was one of the first to signal a pause in 2022... I don't know if he'd have the nads to go for 40bps hike, let alone continue hiking much longer!

Depends what his political masters tell him

 

[moXJO]

Phil Lowe was one of the first to signal a pause in 2022... I don't know if he'd have the nads to go for 40bps hike, let alone continue hiking much longer!

Yeah, it's starting to slow down out there pretty fast now. I don't know if Phil can take the heat from destroying the economy.
Not with this day and age flash mobs.

 

[Smurf1976]

Just an observation that US natural gas is now trading at $2.53

That's ridiculously cheap and I find it hard to believe there isn't an economic signal being sent there. Gas at that price, is equivalent in energy terms to oil at under $14 per barrel, it's ridiculously cheap.

For comparison, Australian gas prices with the government's cap are at USD $16 per million BTU's (the US basis for trading) and if we look at international prices, well the latest for LNG puts it circa $44.50 USD per million BTU.

So US natural gas has basically crashed. From $8.80 six months ago now down over 70% to almost the same nominal price as 25 years ago. Economic signal?

Noting for clarity that US gas trading is normally a price per million BTU's and Australian trading is a price per gigajoule so conversion is required of the units.

 

[over9k]

Alright, markets not giving a f**k now, it's growth and tech led growth full steam ahead - nasdaq's run and SOX have run too but as I showed a few posts back, big tech is where it's at. TQQQ 9%, SOXL 5%, FNGU 19% just on the day.

I've torched GUSH & UDOW, kept hold of NRGU, grabbed a bit more degen FNGU today and kept some cash now primed for a buy tomorrow.

Markets simply do not care at this point.


What was that guy saying about the fed being irrelevant or something???

 

[waterbottle]

Alright, markets not giving a f**k now, it's growth and tech led growth full steam ahead - nasdaq's run and SOX have run too but as I showed a few posts back, big tech is where it's at. TQQQ 9%, SOXL 5%, FNGU 19% just on the day.

I've torched GUSH & UDOW, kept hold of NRGU, grabbed a bit more degen FNGU today and kept some cash now primed for a buy tomorrow.

Markets simply do not care at this point.


What was that guy saying about the fed being irrelevant or something???

Meme stonks making a come back.
It's risk on, and there's nothing that looks like its about to stop it.

Maybe a double top recession?

 

[over9k]

Meme stonks making a come back.
It's risk on, and there's nothing that looks like its about to stop it.

Maybe a double top recession?

Big tech reported earnings after hours, almost exactly in line with estimates and then actually sold off a bit.

But futures then rebounded after the carryon so it might all be a storm in a teacup.

 

[mullokintyre]

From ITV News

The Bank of England has once again pushed up interest rates, in the tenth hike in a row.

Seven members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to increase the base interest rate from 3.5% to 4%, with two voting to keep it unchanged.

The MPC also softened its language, removing a promise to act “forcefully” to return inflation to its target level.

“Looking further ahead, the MPC would adjust the Bank rate as necessary to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit,” the minutes of the meeting said.

So what does the GBP do in response?
It drops against the AUD ( see FTXWire ) and against the USD (see DFX )
In the olden days, you increased interest rates you increase your currency.
Its a new world.
Mick

 

[Smurf1976]

Third stage of this rally then down we go?

I’m not convinced we’ve seen the ultimate bottom of this bear market yet.

 

[over9k]

From ITV News


So what does the GBP do in response?
It drops against the AUD ( see FTXWire ) and against the USD (see DFX )
In the olden days, you increased interest rates you increase your currency.
Its a new world.
Mick

Stagflation now so they're boned. They're tipping into recession.

 

[moXJO]

Was expecting a run and agree with the "double top" theory. I'm pretty loaded on tech, because the biggest degenerates always fomo the most into it.

I don't thInk it has legs though.

 

[JohnDe]

There was a short discussion on the radio yesterday morning. Apologies if already posted or mentioned.

Has high inflation peaked in the US?​

The US Federal Reserve's decision to lift interest rates by 25 basis points was widely expected, it's the smallest rate rise in nearly a year.

Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Policy told RN Breakfast that he believes the "crisis of high inflation" will soon be over in the US, if its not already.

Guest:Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Michigan

Has high inflation peaked in the US? - ABC listen

The US Federal Reserve's decision to lift interest rates by 25 basis points was widely expected, it's the smallest rate rise in nearly a year. Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Policy told RN Breakfast that he believes the "crisis of high inflation" will soon be over in the US...

www.abc.net.au

 

[divs4ever]

There was a short discussion on the radio yesterday morning. Apologies if already posted or mentioned.

Has high inflation peaked in the US?​

The US Federal Reserve's decision to lift interest rates by 25 basis points was widely expected, it's the smallest rate rise in nearly a year.

Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Policy told RN Breakfast that he believes the "crisis of high inflation" will soon be over in the US, if its not already.

Guest:Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Michigan

Has high inflation peaked in the US? - ABC listen

The US Federal Reserve's decision to lift interest rates by 25 basis points was widely expected, it's the smallest rate rise in nearly a year. Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Policy told RN Breakfast that he believes the "crisis of high inflation" will soon be over in the US...

www.abc.net.au

in a land of shifting definitions and formulas ...NO

gaslighting rules ( for better or worse )

 

[Knobby22]

There was a short discussion on the radio yesterday morning. Apologies if already posted or mentioned.

Has high inflation peaked in the US?​

The US Federal Reserve's decision to lift interest rates by 25 basis points was widely expected, it's the smallest rate rise in nearly a year.

Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Policy told RN Breakfast that he believes the "crisis of high inflation" will soon be over in the US, if its not already.

Guest:Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Michigan

Has high inflation peaked in the US? - ABC listen

The US Federal Reserve's decision to lift interest rates by 25 basis points was widely expected, it's the smallest rate rise in nearly a year. Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Policy told RN Breakfast that he believes the "crisis of high inflation" will soon be over in the US...

www.abc.net.au

Very interesting commentsby the economics professor who is based in the USA. He says inflation is probably below 3% at the moment in the USA and that we have been coming out of a few hard times and going back to normal.

There are deflationary pressures. China is back on stream, winter will be ending soon in the Northern hemisphere easing energy costs, new recessionary impacts (even if partial), hopefully the drought over in Europe.
I saw the over supply of money is easing off.

Something could come out of the blue but it looks to me that the USA inflation is coming under control near present interest rates. Not as confident about Australia though.

 

[waterbottle]

Re: double top theory, markets tend to bottom once the Fed is done cutting. There's a historical precedent behind that.

What happened in 2008? Didn't markets double top before going bust?
Meanwhile, earnings have been patchy. Sure, some companies have been successful, but many have had mixed results (so far) with a poor outlook, and some have flopped entirely.

What happens if China doesn't rebound like everyone expects? The world is hoping that China bails everyone else out ala 2015.

The flipside is that none of this actually matters and markets don't care and we've just been through a mild V-shaped recession.

 

[JohnDe]

What if….