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over9k
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Another recession indicator flashing
www.neartermforwardspread.com
Near Term Forward Spread
Near Term Forward Spread Data Anthony Diercks & Daniel Soques This chart shows the up-to-date calculation of the near term forward spread (NTFS) as outlined by Engstrom and Sharpe (2019) using U.S. yield curve data from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The near term forward spread is the
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IMO, it is a bit like the Paul Keating situation, the recession we had to have.
You will never put a lid on costs spiralling, if you don't burst peoples expectation, that the good times never stop rolling on.
It is times like now, where costs go up, wages go up, prices go up, statutory charges go up, house prices get bid up, that wealth inequality goes rampant.
The poor can't pass on their cost increases and they can't charge more for their skill set, so the Govt either has to increase the payments to the poor, or put a lid on the cost spiral.
I think it will be the later and IMO there is a fair way to go yet.
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Dark times.IMO, it is a bit like the Paul Keating situation, the recession we had to have.
You will never put a lid on costs spiralling, if you don't burst peoples expectation, that the good times never stop rolling on.
It is times like now, where costs go up, wages go up, prices go up, statutory charges go up, house prices get bid up, that wealth inequality goes rampant.
The poor can't pass on their cost increases and they can't charge more for their skill set, so the Govt either has to increase the payments to the poor, or put a lid on the cost spiral.
I think it will be the later and IMO there is a fair way to go yet.
None of the central bankers want deflation though - they're aiming for disinflation - and if by chance we do get deflation there will be measures to halt price falls.
As for wages, central banks don't like wage inflation.
over9k
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A story in four parts:
Last edited:
over9k
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Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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Australian survey expected inflation still above 5%. A very bad stat. I am thinking quite a few rate rises yet.
melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au
Consumer inflation expectations decline in October.
Consumer inflation expectations decline in October
melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au
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Phil Lowe's statement is an interesting one to read, particularly given the pause last year that led to the belief that the rate hike cycle was done.
His statement says otherwise.
Some choice quotes:
His statement says otherwise.
Some choice quotes:
- Inflation is expected to decline this year due to both global factors and slower growth in domestic demand. The central forecast is for CPI inflation to decline to 4¾ per cent this year and to around 3 per cent by mid-2025 (where is 2%???)
- The labour market remains very tight
- Given the importance of avoiding a prices-wages spiral, the Board will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms in the period ahead.
- The Board is seeking to return inflation to the 2–3 per cent range while keeping the economy on an even keel, but the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one.
- The Board expects that further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead to ensure that inflation returns to target and that this period of high inflation is only temporary
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Yellen: 'You don't have a recession' when U.S. unemployment at 53-year low
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday said she saw a path for avoiding a U.S. recession, with inflation coming down significantly and the economy remaining strong, given the strength of the U.S. labor market. "You don't have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs...
Only for tech, but still....
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if following the standard procedure to control inflation , i agreeAustralian survey expected inflation still above 5%. A very bad stat. I am thinking quite a few rate rises yet.
Consumer inflation expectations decline in October.
Consumer inflation expectations decline in October
but so many different factors this time rapidly shifting definitions , changed calculating methods , policies previously unimaginable
have they some arcane plan or are they truly desperate , trying to stall , bluff and lie as long as they can
the GameStop saga springs to mind where some are so certain of the outcome they take on insane short positions waiting for the carnage
will it all come tumbling down or have central banks one last rescue mission left in them
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If you take the raw data, not the adjusted,they are losing. Jobs at. High speed.
Yellen: 'You don't have a recession' when U.S. unemployment at 53-year low
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday said she saw a path for avoiding a U.S. recession, with inflation coming down significantly and the economy remaining strong, given the strength of the U.S. labor market. "You don't have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs...finance.yahoo.com
View attachment 152755
Only for tech, but still....
Could it be the case that the very people forging data are now believing these?
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Of course it all depends on which group you talk to.
For the homeowners with mortgages, there pain is for real, will continue, and most likely get worse.
However, for self funded retirees, things are decidedly rosier, will continue to be rosy, and likely to get rosier.
Mick
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Not really when real inflation is 10% or more and your flash online saving is at 4% with the stock market crash ahead
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I remember when rates were hitting rock bottom and there was some concern about people leveraging too much. One politician ripped out some data and said average Aussie mortgage is only around 500k... so even if rates go high its no issue. I wonder what those stats would be now.. unadjusted ?
Anyway any investment is a gamble
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Guess who's got a big mortgage? ?
Anyone wanna tell these clowns it should be much higher?
Anyone wanna tell these clowns it should be much higher?
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Yep as per usual most things go back to the long term trend, it isn't as though this is the first time interest rates have been higher than 0.5%.?
Don't worry some people have a plan.
Financial stress drives huge rise in credit card applications
In a further sign that rising prices are biting, credit card applications remain strong even as demand for other types of credit falls.
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JPowell + PLowe now in lock-step. Reiterates further hikes may be required. Markets pumping.
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These guys are such hypocrites, main stream media host on a 1m salary talking about greed and community focus ?
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Expensive habits?
It sounds as though the music is stopping, on the pass the property parcel pozi scheme that has been running in Sydney/Melbourne, now we find out who is caught holding the bundle.
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