over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
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Oh yeah, the fact that we see almost vertical movements within seconds of a data dump or fed statement like this every single time such a data dump or fed comment occurs:You think they did, but you have no evidence that this is the case. All the evidence from people who study how markets function shows the opposite.
If you knew more about how markets worked, you would realise you're wrong.
Come on dude, let's hear you explain why we see things like a 3% move in NDX futures within 60 seconds of a jpowell statement. You assert that it's not the fed causing it, so let's hear it, why does it really occur so much so quickly so consistently?
I'll wait.
Absolute shite. An options trader doesn't know the exact second powell is going to make some kind of statement in response to a question or whatever. You can buy options that expire minutes/seconds after the CPI dump or whatever if you want but you have no idea when powell is or isn't going to say something that'll move markets massively.The resolution of event risk moves markets today just as it always has. Options dealers and market makers especially. It's the event and participants, not the content of the event that drives the price action. As a stylised simple example, let's say a lot of people were buying puts into the CPI print. After the CPI is over they no longer need the puts because the event has passed. Now the options dealers need to do a lot of trading to handle that flow. It's a lot of money. It shows up as price action for a few days. It doesn't mean anything.
Options dealers and market makers do not have a view on the Fed. They do not care.
Yes, and it's the content of the event that dictates what the participants will do. Again, how are you not getting this?It's the event and participants, not the content of the event that drives the price action.
Tell me exactly what you mean by a big move in response to a data dump or fed comment meaning something.It doesn't mean anything.
Hah, that's what I thought.Keep waiting, I don't mind if you want to delude yourself.
Hang on a minute mate, why are you saying the fed needs to back way off right now? I thought the fed was irrelevant?Great chart from @LizAnnSonders (Chief Investment Strategist for Schwab) on Twitter
US inflation YoY comparisons are now crazy hard. Even +0.2% MoM every month is going to have CPI at 2% by mid '23. Anything less than that could be staring down a deflationary barrel.
View attachment 147675
Inflation swaps etc are pricing this in already.
Fed needs to back way off right now.
since several ( former ) Fed officials have been detected front-running the markets and HFTs usually including news-filtering software a VERY quick response hints at fore-knowledge and/or automated tradingCome on dude, let's hear you explain why we see things like a 3% move in NDX futures within 60 seconds of a jpowell statement. You assert that it's not the fed causing it, so let's hear it, why does it really occur so much so quickly so consistently?
I'll wait.
But the fed's irrelevant bro, how could it raise rates and knife the economy into a crisis? The fed doesn't effect markets according to you.If something truly crazy happens, like oil gapping to $200-300, is raising rates really going to be the right reaction? They will be knifing the economy into a crisis. I just don't see it.
@Joe Blow This guy is either galactically stupid and genuinely believes what he's saying or he doesn't and he's just arguing in bad faith. Either way, it's getting tiresome.
It's almost as if they're in some way connected.We're debating semantics at this point. Even if you didn't think the Fed was 'relevant' to the economy/market, the fact that the market movements are correlated with Fed members speaking is enough of a reason to take notice.
And you can add Canada to the list .Looks like the ECB and BoE also hiked overnight, both planning on increasing further into 2023.
Phil Lowe is going to have to backpedal...
Personally I'm happy to agree to disagree and won't choose to block anyone I disagree with.If no common ground can be found, and no progress is being made, then I would consider the use of the software's ignore feature. It's a last resort move, but that's what it's there for.
subject to revision , of course
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