Inflation

[divs4ever]

CPI is a massively lagging economic indicator.

One could go so far as to say that it is the last economic indicator to move. Maybe a tie between CPI and employment on how much they lag.

So, no, that's not how it works at all.

a valid point but would argue wage increases lag even the CPI rises , therefore wage costs feed into further PPI rises risking creating a spiral

 

[waterbottle]

UK inflation at 10.7%, beats expectations of 10.9% lol

 

[wayneL]

I

UK inflation at 10.7%, beats expectations of 10.9% lol

Is that a bullish algorithm? I'm confused.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Not the other stuff that the fed acts on though, is it?

If the last few years didn't manage to convince you the Fed is inept and irrelevant, nothing ever will.

 

[waterbottle]

I
Is that a bullish algorithm? I'm confused.

Algorithm says: this is good for bitcoin

 

[sptrawler]

Algorithm says: this is good for bitcoin

Still can't convince myself to buy any, probably another missed opportunity.
But I did manage to jump onboard the potash shortage band wagon and bought some SO4 a while back, do you want to buy them for a really good price?

 

[moXJO]

I'm sure it's fine.

 

[over9k]

If the last few years didn't manage to convince you the Fed is inept and irrelevant, nothing ever will.

I'll give you inept, but irrelevant?

 

[Smurf1976]

If anyone needs any confirmation that we're seeing a broad re-run of the 1970's then this from the BBC ought to do it:



Yep, the UK now has enough ongoing and recurrent strike action to warrant an actual calendar to remind people who's striking on any particular day. Just like the 1970's.

Only a matter of time until we see this in other countries I expect, indeed I've noticed a bit more militancy in Australia in some sectors so it's coming.

 

[waterbottle]

If anyone needs any confirmation that we're seeing a broad re-run of the 1970's then this from the BBC ought to do it:

View attachment 150434

Yep, the UK now has enough ongoing and recurrent strike action to warrant an actual calendar to remind people who's striking on any particular day. Just like the 1970's.

Only a matter of time until we see this in other countries I expect, indeed I've noticed a bit more militancy in Australia in some sectors so it's coming.

That's nuts.

Australia probably doesn't have the same pressures that the UK and Europe are facing, particularly with a terminal rate just above 3....

 

[over9k]

SELL AT OPEN

 

[qldfrog]

Ok so .5% or 50 points increase by the Feds as expected ..yet market not happy.? .rates are still well behind inflation...

 

[waterbottle]

Ok so .5% or 50 points increase by the Feds as expected ..yet market not happy.? .rates are still well behind inflation...

Guidance is hawkish.

Fed now expecting a terminal rate of 5.1% with a GDP of 0.5%.

Feds going to crash the economy.

Lets wait for the press conference

 

[Smurf1976]

Fed now expecting a terminal rate of more than 5%.

True although that's only another 0.75% from the present isn't it? It's still saying that the rises are mostly done now.

Whether that turns out to be true is, of course, another matter....

 

[waterbottle]

True although that's only another 0.75% from the present isn't it? It's still saying that the rises are mostly done now.

Whether that turns out to be true is, of course, another matter....

Nah market was expecting the pivot to occur I. E. Fed pausing and conceding to the market given yields have been inverting for some time.
Fed just came out with a revised dot plot which essentially ignores market expectations and plans additional hikes.
Fed GDP estimate of 0.5% is probably an over estimate.... They may be signalling that we're heading for a recession without explicitly saying we're heading for a recession.

Time to wait for the presser

 

[waterbottle]

Just for reference, here are the dot plots pre and post meeting

 

[waterbottle]

JPowell doesn't think they're restrictive enough. Refers journos to dot plot for peak rate, although also admits plots have been revised throughout the year.
They still believe inflation will head upwards. Is this the China reopening effect?

Edit: still focusing on labour market as being source of inflation. Forecasting a 4.6% unemployment rate in 2023, let's see

 

[over9k]

Retail trading idiots jumped the gun, nothing more. I've made post after post after post saying we aren't out of the woods yet/how it's only been a day or whatever before markets have turned again even if we have gotten some decent data for a change but NOPE.

 

[waterbottle]

Retail trading idiots jumped the gun, nothing more. I've made post after post after post saying we aren't out of the woods yet/how it's only been a day or whatever before markets have turned again even if we have gotten some decent data for a change but NOPE.

LOL I think it's more than just retail moving the market.

 

[over9k]

JPowell doesn't think they're restrictive enough. Refers journos to dot plot for peak rate, although also admits plots have been revised throughout the year.
They still believe inflation will head upwards. Is this the China reopening effect?

Here's why I would still be nervous if I was him:



Remember that this is just the rig count too, not the flow rate. Rigs flow their fastest at the beginning and then the rate tapers off over time:



So take a ~1m barrels/day shortfall and then factor in how much they've diverted/are still trying to divert to europe to replace the russian supply too and there's a biiiig problem.