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probably on the way to Hell without even a hand-basket to travel in
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Eh, I'm a bit optimistic.
St. Jerome may be right about the soft-landing fable.
Iron ore price up more than 50% compared to the beginning of the month, so there must be some legs behind the China re-opening.
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so am i , i am still 95% in the market
China will recover for sure , but will it be a trading partner or bitter enemy by then ??
sorry Jerome ain't no saint to me , he lied at least three times too often ( September 2019 Repo Madness lost me )
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Less than an hour until US CPI.
Inflation expectations down.
Inflation nowcasting predicting 7.27...
Inflation expectations down.
Inflation nowcasting predicting 7.27...
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Inflation continuing to head downwards! 7.1%
Green shift, here we gooooo
Green shift, here we gooooo
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US futures are surging on the news as more signs of inflation peaking are helping fuel speculation that a pause in the Fed's hiking cycle could come soon.
The S&P500 is testing the resistance around the previous highs at 4100. All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see if the index can break higher in what is likely to be an extremely volatile week before things quiet down for the holidays.
over9k
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7.1 vs 7.3 yearly and 0.1 vs 0.3 month-on-month and markets go nuts.
Last edited:
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Didn’t last long…
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There's that volatility, and it looks like we could be in for more of the same as the week progresses.
Still higher on the day, but sellers seem to be doing a good job defending the 4100 resistance on the S&P500 for the time being
over9k
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Interesting sell-off. Let's see what the Fed does tomorrow, more importantly the JPowell speech.
If anything we're looking at 50bps, maybe 25?
Inflation is down trending (and has been for several data points) with yield curves inverting. They must be close to their terminal rate.
They might decide to pause after tomorrow (as Phil Lowe has done, who seemed to be leading the world with the pivot).
If they do, that begs the next question: when's the recession happening? Or have we already been in a recession all along with overestimated GDP reports?
If anything we're looking at 50bps, maybe 25?
Inflation is down trending (and has been for several data points) with yield curves inverting. They must be close to their terminal rate.
They might decide to pause after tomorrow (as Phil Lowe has done, who seemed to be leading the world with the pivot).
If they do, that begs the next question: when's the recession happening? Or have we already been in a recession all along with overestimated GDP reports?
over9k
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Pure stupidity. I'm kind of amazed the retail traders haven't run out of money to do this with yet.
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Nice bloomberg article summarising how COVID lockdown has stunted China's economy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ely-worsened-before-abrupt-covid-policy-shift
IMO, this adds fuel to the theory that Xi is desperate. Fed has likely over tightened - to the detriment of the UK, several emerging economies and Europe.
Would be interesting to see how much China's reopening will add to inflation in 2023, particularly with use of oil. US CPI has gone from 9.1 to 7.1% over 6 months, how likely is it that they hit 3.1% in Dec 2023?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ely-worsened-before-abrupt-covid-policy-shift
IMO, this adds fuel to the theory that Xi is desperate. Fed has likely over tightened - to the detriment of the UK, several emerging economies and Europe.
Would be interesting to see how much China's reopening will add to inflation in 2023, particularly with use of oil. US CPI has gone from 9.1 to 7.1% over 6 months, how likely is it that they hit 3.1% in Dec 2023?
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Just thinking back to the crazy responses this post (based purely on basic mathematics) garnered at the time, and yet, just as basic mathematics would dictate, we are tracking the red line.
YoY inflation comparisons remain crazy hard.
Even consistent +0.2% monthly prints from here are going to see CPI at 2% mid 2023.
Anything less than that...well...I will let the math speak for itself.
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but can you rely on the data used to calculate that CPI print ??
now China , for instance will MAKE that print so regardless of the bodies needed to attain that desire
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Assuming nothing else disrupts the downward trajectory...
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Well, the timing couldn't have been better. Western markets will shut down for the next 1-2 weeks. Gives China enough time to recover from COVID.
www.scmp.com
v.redd.it
Doesn't look too different compared to Australian emergency departments tbh
Beijing hospitals under pressure after China’s sudden zero-Covid switch
Infected doctors and other staff are pushing on at work so hospitals in China’s capital can continue to treat the public.
www.scmp.com
r/China - Hospital emergency room in Tianjin under Covid surge
229 votes and 99 comments so far on Reddit
v.redd.it
Doesn't look too different compared to Australian emergency departments tbh
over9k
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Question is if we're going to get the whole "Well we had 8% last year so if we have 0% this year that's still kinda 4% over the two years..."
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CPI is a massively lagging economic indicator.
One could go so far as to say that it is the last economic indicator to move. Maybe a tie between CPI and employment on how much they lag.
So, no, that's not how it works at all.
over9k
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Not the other stuff that the fed acts on though, is it?
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