Inflation

[over9k]

Translation: Europe's realised they can't afford the sanctions.

 

[over9k]

This entire week has just been "flog at open, buy at close".

 

[over9k]

Energy the best of a bad bunch, only sector in the green at open. As usual every time some bad data comes out (which is all the bloody time now).

HMMMMMM HOW SURPRISING (not)

Energy the only sector still in the green premarket. This week's been a ripper.

 

[over9k]

Weak hands are green hands boys.

 

[over9k]

Plenty of this happening too. Inflation is making mincement of the entire industry.

Very few traders are winners in a bear market. Energy is the *only* play at the moment.

 

[divs4ever]

View attachment 150395

Plenty of this happening too. Inflation is making mincement of the entire industry.

Very few traders are winners in a bear market. Energy is the *only* play at the moment.

??? it appears so, if you bought in during previous lows , but then maybe i am underestimating the traders' skills , there is undoubtedly plenty of volatility in the sector

 

[over9k]

??? it appears so, if you bought in during previous lows , but then maybe i am underestimating the traders' skills , there is undoubtedly plenty of volatility in the sector

I've posted some of my more recent degen plays a couple of pages back but here's some earlier ones divs just in case you're worried I've been BS'ing you all and put my mouth where my money isn't:



To state the obvious, this list is by no means exhaustive, but hopefully this should calm any doubts.

 

[divs4ever]

worried about your trading results , absolutely not

that is between you and your accountant , i do worry that you are playing in a rigged game ( that you cannot rig )

as i understand it , trading depends on scale and your need for 'an adequate margin ' for the risk taken , now a commercial trader has ways to get reduced fees and other trade regulations ( for example one trade/buy i am trying to grab has THREE 62 cent orders in front of me , )

be careful with energy , i am guessing a large amount of commodity is traded away from official exchanges ( for example Russian is now more strongly preferring long-term contracts which will be sold without a transit into US dollars )

 

[over9k]

Yeah you're describing alligator positions divs. Nothing new there.

 

[waterbottle]

I've posted some of my more recent degen plays a couple of pages back but here's some earlier ones divs just in case you're worried I've been BS'ing you all and put my mouth where my money isn't:

View attachment 150397

To state the obvious, this list is by no means exhaustive, but hopefully this should calm any doubts.

I hope you don't get cut from GS

 

[over9k]

I hope you don't get cut from GS

Wouldn't take a job at GS even if they offered it to me. I've got friends in places and my desire to do the hours etc that they do is zero. I'd go & do a trade or something before I did 80-100 hours a week in a corporate job.

Anton Kreil had (has) the right idea.

 

[mullokintyre]

Doug Casey has put out a most interesting newsletter on food and inflation.

In 1906, Alfred Henry Lewis stated, "There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy." Since then, his observation has been echoed by people as disparate as Robert Heinlein and Leon Trotsky.

The key here is that, unlike all other commodities, food is the one essential that cannot be postponed. If there were a shortage of, say, shoes, we could make do for months or even years. A shortage of gasoline would be worse, but we could survive it, through mass transport or even walking, if necessary.

But food is different. If there were an interruption in the supply of food, fear would set in immediately. And, if the resumption of the food supply were uncertain, the fear would become pronounced. After only nine missed meals, it’s not unlikely that we’d panic and be prepared to commit a crime to acquire food. If we were to see our neighbour with a loaf of bread, and we owned a gun, we might well say, "I’m sorry, you’re a good neighbour and we’ve been friends for years, but my children haven’t eaten today – I have to have that bread – even if I have to shoot you."

But surely, there’s no need to speculate on this concern. There’s nothing on the evening news to suggest that such a problem even might be on the horizon. So, let’s have a closer look at the actual food distribution industry, compare it to the present direction of the economy, and see whether there might be reason for concern.

The food industry typically operates on very small margins – often below 2%. Traditionally, wholesalers and retailers have relied on a two-week turnaround of supply and anywhere up to a 30-day payment plan. But an increasing tightening of the economic system for the last eight years has resulted in a turnaround time of just three days for both supply and payment for many in the industry. This a system that’s still fully operative, but with no further wiggle room, should it take a significant further hit.

If there were a month where significant inflation took place (say, 3%), all profits would be lost for the month for both suppliers and retailers, but goods could still be replaced and sold for a higher price next month. But, if there were three or more consecutive months of inflation, the industry would be unable to bridge the gap, even if better conditions were expected to develop in future months. A failure to pay in full for several months would mean smaller orders by those who could not pay. That would mean fewer goods on the shelves. The longer the inflationary trend continued, the more quickly prices would rise to hopefully offset the inflation. And ever-fewer items on the shelves.

From Germany in 1922, to Argentina in 2000, and to Venezuela in 2016, this has been the pattern whenever inflation has become systemic, rather than sporadic. Each month, some stores close, beginning with those that are the most poorly capitalised.

In good economic times, this would mean more business for those stores that were still solvent, but in an inflationary situation, they would be in no position to take on more unprofitable business. The result is that the volume of food on offer at retailers would decrease at a pace with the severity of the inflation.

However, the demand for food would not decrease by a single loaf of bread. Store closings would be felt most immediately in inner cities, when one closing would send customers to the next neighbourhood seeking food. The real danger would come when that store also closes and both neighbourhoods descended on a third store in yet another neighbourhood. That’s when one loaf of bread for every three potential purchasers would become worth killing over. Virtually no one would long tolerate seeing his children go without food because others had "invaded" his local supermarket.

In addition to retailers, the entire industry would be impacted and, as retailers disappeared, so would suppliers, and so on, up the food chain. This would not occur in an orderly fashion, or in one specific area. The problem would be a national one. Closures would be all over the map, seemingly at random, affecting all areas. Food riots would take place, first in the inner cities then spread to other communities. Buyers, fearful of shortages, would clean out the shelves.

Importantly, it’s the very unpredictability of food delivery that increases fear, creating panic and violence. And, again, none of the above is speculation; it’s a historical pattern – a reaction based upon human nature whenever systemic inflation occurs.

I had heard that quote about being 9 meals from anarchy, but the number has varied over time.
Mick

 

[over9k]

Doug Casey has put out a most interesting newsletter on food and inflation.

I had heard that quote about being 9 meals from anarchy, but the number has varied over time.
Mick

I've heard "society is only ever one missed meal from a revolution".

 

[divs4ever]

I've heard "society is only ever one missed meal from a revolution".

one missed meal MIGHT be an overstatement given the number of skipped breakfasts/lunches/dinners i have encountered in my years of employment ( by myself and co-workers ) , but nine ( in a short space of time ) would be an interesting number especially for those with families , although the traditional family structure is already under pressure ( which may increase or decrease that number of skipped meals )

but food and water are the biggies in a cohesive society . a disrupted society carries it's own risks

 

[over9k]

Told you they'd crack eventually.

 

[divs4ever]

assuming they actually cared about the virus , and didn't use it as a convenient excuse to test out various population control measures ( like some of the West did )

 

[waterbottle]

View attachment 150410

Told you they'd crack eventually.

Next question is whether their hospitals will get overwhelmed and what effect that would have.
There's also talk of a 2-week new year shutdown for 2023.

Interesting that China is now reopening in an environment where Europe is at war and is/heading into a recession, meanwhile US factory orders in China supposedly dropping 40% (if media reports are to be believed).

What exactly are they reopening into? Xi must see something else - what is it?

 

[over9k]

Next question is whether their hospitals will get overwhelmed and what effect that would have.
There's also talk of a 2-week new year shutdown for 2023.

Interesting that China is now reopening in an environment where Europe is at war and is/heading into a recession, meanwhile US factory orders in China supposedly dropping 40% (if media reports are to be believed).

What exactly are they reopening into? Xi must see something else - what is it?

Desperation

 

[divs4ever]

Next question is whether their hospitals will get overwhelmed and what effect that would have.
There's also talk of a 2-week new year shutdown for 2023.

Interesting that China is now reopening in an environment where Europe is at war and is/heading into a recession, meanwhile US factory orders in China supposedly dropping 40% (if media reports are to be believed).

What exactly are they reopening into? Xi must see something else - what is it?

well , it depends on what they foresee

a smart company would have re-tooled and say set up for increased penetration into the Russian market with mid/high quality stuff

phones,autos ( and EVs ), all that stuff Western Companies no longer retail in Russia ( especially electrical/electronic ) and of course China should sell some of the same stuff inside China to save on foreign currency reserves , and don't forget the rest of Asia where several nations are still INCREASING their population , if ( REAL ) Chinese GDP can grow 1% or 2% for the next two years they should be doing fine

 

[waterbottle]

Desperation

If true, Australia is fooked