Inflation

[waterbottle]

Commentators are expecting a recession in 2023 but the recent GDP numbers were revised upwards. How does that make sense? Well I found a nice little editorial demonstrating that GDP numbers are overestimated to the upside during recessions -by a significant margin - so may not be the best indicator for what may happen.

Ouverture du document : 47977 - Etudes Economiques – BNP Paribas

 

[over9k]

Commentators are expecting a recession in 2023 but the recent GDP numbers were revised upwards. How does that make sense? Well I found a nice little editorial demonstrating that GDP numbers are overestimated to the upside during recessions -by a significant margin - so may not be the best indicator for what may happen.

Ouverture du document : 47977 - Etudes Economiques – BNP Paribas

Official numbers being fudged you say?

I am shocked.

 

[waterbottle]

Official numbers being fudged you say?

I am shocked.

You really think the government would do that? Just feed us lies?

 

[divs4ever]

You really think the government would do that? Just feed us lies?

think ?? NO !

have some interesting documents that prove it ?

yes and they have been doing so for over 30 years

however more of the masses are starting to become aware of this

now if the unions work out the ALP aren't doing what they are paid to do ( because the unions fund and provide the foot-soldiers to the ALP ) we have some interesting times coming

 

[over9k]

It's starting.

 

[waterbottle]

If China pivots, where is oil heading? ?

 

[qldfrog]

If China pivots, where is oil heading? ?

Maybe not next week or month but oil can only go up..more and more use,less and less exploration and a dream renewable green world which remains a dream

 

[over9k]

Last time this happened it lasted literally a day just FYI for everyone.

+3% for the nasdaq on this day, now today's jobs' numbers have it 2.25% into the red so probably about -3% once the session opens.

So yeah. Called it.

 

[over9k]

Energy the best of a bad bunch, only sector in the green at open. As usual every time some bad data comes out (which is all the bloody time now).

 

[divs4ever]

If China pivots, where is oil heading? ?

China will be buying a LOT from Russia and Iran so maybe the 'US oil price ' will not be directly affected since that oil will not be traded through official markets ( i suspect India will use a similar system )

however production shortfalls may be more influential on the oil price , especially since Europe has a trend of seizing Russian owned oil refineries ( that will make China VERY NERVOUS )

 

[divs4ever]

Maybe not next week or month but oil can only go up..more and more use,less and less exploration and a dream renewable green world which remains a dream

i would suggest 'more volatile ' thinking the world's two most populous nations are now buying a large amount of energy 'off-market'

i suspect the US will try to rig the ' official market ' just like they do with the gold/silver market ( and the real volume happens quietly in the background )

 

[qldfrog]

i would suggest 'more volatile ' thinking the world's two most populous nations are now buying a large amount of energy 'off-market'

i suspect the US will try to rig the ' official market ' just like they do with the gold/silver market ( and the real volume happens quietly in the background )

Exactly, we will have a paper oil at 57 usd a barrel demonstrating how good the EU and USA are at crushing Putin and soon evil Saudis..but your price at the pump will remain stratospheric and the west will levy more super profit taxes on our oilers making sure that no exploration is performed.
Well that is theory/plan .a cap on oil price LoL
I suspect Putin and OPEC will show the west a very long middle finger which might reach deep into our western leaders inner parts.not that Macron would complain based on popular talks in France ?
And if oil is bought with gold, noone will accept current "paper" gold

 

[divs4ever]

Exactly, we will have a paper oil at 57 usd a barrel demonstrating how good the EU and USA are at crushing Putin and soon evil Saudis..but your price at the pump will remain stratospheric and the west will levy more super profit taxes on our oilers making sure that no exploration is performed.
Well that is theory/plan .a cap on oil price LoL
I suspect Putin and OPEC will show the west a very long middle finger which might reach deep into our western leaders inner parts.not that Macron would complain based on popular talks in France ?
And if oil is bought with gold, noone will accept current "paper" gold

Russia will be selling via agreed long-term contracts to 'friendly customers ' ( and in agreed currencies/goods ) , now the Saudis may have a golden lining here especially if they develop their high-quality silica resource in parallel ( because China is restricting silica exports to Taiwan , would China do similar to South Korea ?? )

 

[Smurf1976]

the world's two most populous nations are now buying a large amount of energy 'off-market'

What this really marks is the first major move away from the petrodollar.

If holding USD isn’t the guaranteed and only means of accessing oil then that removes a major reason to hold or even use USD at all.

It’s only a matter of time until other countries and commodities go the same way I expect.

 

[divs4ever]

What this really marks is the first major move away from the petrodollar.

If holding USD isn’t the guaranteed and only means of accessing oil then that removes a major reason to hold or even use USD at all.

It’s only a matter of time until other countries and commodities go the same way I expect.

yes , that is how i see it also ,

the second reason is the debt market , whoever if US funds/Treasuries are no longer guaranteed safe from seizure/confiscation ( whether a minor criminal or sovereign holder ) that is a second excuse to hold US Dollar removed

the third play will be the 'digital dollar '

i hope those US taxpayers have broad shoulders

i think China's idea of direct goods swaps will gain a lot of traction ( and will not only help gold and silver )

 

[qldfrog]

yes , that is how i see it also ,

the second reason is the debt market , whoever if US funds/Treasuries are no longer guaranteed safe from seizure/confiscation ( whether a minor criminal or sovereign holder ) that is a second excuse to hold US Dollar removed

the third play will be the 'digital dollar '

i hope those US taxpayers have broad shoulders

i think China's idea of direct goods swaps will gain a lot of traction ( and will not only help gold and silver )

I see Smurf you and i are on the same mental train.
I have moved some of my USD currency exposure to CHF and believe CHF from historic reasons, stores of PM and finance haven status could gain relatively soon.
Ironically, the AUD could do relatively well due to our ability to be a commodity backed currency and a "relatively" low debt levels

 

[divs4ever]

I see Smurf you and i are on the same mental train.
I have moved some of my USD currency exposure to CHF and believe CHF from historic reasons, stores of PM and finance haven status could gain relatively soon.
Ironically, the AUD could do relatively well due to our ability to be a commodity backed currency and a "relatively" low debt levels

our defense budget commitments could see those debt levels explode , as well as some newer Government policies

the other danger is IF commodities ( in Australia ) are no longer traded in US Dollars .

what if .. our biggest customers ( China , India , Japan and South Korea ) want to transact in a different currency ,

now iron and metals in exchange for electronics and autos would work for South Korea , maybe for Japan as well

Australia's core problem is we don't value-add on our commodities ( very often )

 

[waterbottle]

What this really marks is the first major move away from the petrodollar.

If holding USD isn’t the guaranteed and only means of accessing oil then that removes a major reason to hold or even use USD at all.

It’s only a matter of time until other countries and commodities go the same way I expect.

Good point, I'd never thought of that although what has happened to countries in the past that tried to steer away from the petrodollars?
Methinks Russia needs some Freedom

 

[over9k]

China will be buying a LOT from Russia and Iran so maybe the 'US oil price ' will not be directly affected since that oil will not be traded through official markets ( i suspect India will use a similar system )

however production shortfalls may be more influential on the oil price , especially since Europe has a trend of seizing Russian owned oil refineries ( that will make China VERY NERVOUS )

They can't get anywhere near what they need from russia.

 

[divs4ever]

They can't get anywhere near what they need from russia.

there are still a few 'Russia-friendly ' stans up there , and i reckon China can cut a deal with Afghanistan as well , add in under-explored Mongolia as 'future producers ' , and the Chinese stockpiles ( they reputedly have ) and i reckon they can just about do it especially if the West applies sanctions on Chinese exports ( would the West do that again ?? )

also China learned a trick or two on recycling

it won't 'a time of abundance ' but they only have to out-last the West and get a clear path to partnering half of Africa

currently i would rather be playing China than the EU in the new world monopoly game