Imminent and severe market correction

metric · 1 September 2009

Insiders Selling Stocks at Highest Level Since May 2008

Insiders Selling Stocks at Highest Level Since May 2008

Washington’s Blog
Monday, August 31, 2009

Best buying opportunity since the Great Depression?

TrimTabs is reporting that insiders know better:

Selling by corporate insiders in August has surged to $6.1 billion, the
highest amount since May 2008. The ratio of insider selling to insider buying
hit 30.6, the highest level since TrimTabs began tracking the data in 2004.

“The best-informed market participants are sending a clear signal that the
party on Wall Street is going to end soon,” said Charles Biderman, CEO of
TrimTabs.

TrimTabs explained that insider activity is not the only sign the rally is
about to end. The TrimTabs Demand Index, which tracks 18 fund flow and sentiment
indicators, has turned very bearish for the first time since March.

For example, short interest on NYSE stocks plummeted by 10.3% in the second
half of July and margin debt on all US listed stocks spiked 5.9% in July, while
51.6% of advisors surveyed by Investors Intelligence are bullish, the highest
level since December 2007.

“When corporate insiders are bailing, the shorts are covering and investors
are borrowing to buy, it generally pays to be a seller rather than a buyer of
stock,” said Biderman.

TrimTabs also reports that the actions of U.S. public companies have been
bearish. In the past four months, companies have been net sellers of a record
$105.2 billion in shares.

“Investors who think the U.S. economy is recovering are going to get a big
shock this fall,” said Biderman. “Companies and corporate insiders are signaling
that the economy is in much worse shape than conventional wisdom believes.”
http://www.prisonplanet.com/insiders-selling-stocks-at-highest-level-since-may-2008.html

explod · 1 September 2009

metric

“Investors who think the U.S. economy is recovering are going to get a big
shock this fall,” said Biderman. “Companies and corporate insiders are signaling
that the economy is in much worse shape than conventional wisdom believes.”

So Jim Sinclair on Minesite is pretty right.

Not sure how many days he is down to now but must be only a few months to the total collapse of the financial system.

Keep stocking those baked beans comrades

noirua · 2 September 2009

Looks as if markets are in for a considerable correction after the big run up. Even better stocks in the market can be unfairly sold, so it seems at times, and it may well be best to return to the sidelines for a while. You can't fight the trend.

Sean K · 10 September 2009

Oh dear, Australia's unemployment rate has skyrocketted to 5.8% during the worst economic disaster since Leonardo sank the Titanic. Run for the life boats!

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,26052644-462,00.html

Yes, we've put people on half pay and forced holidays. That has saved us. Of course.

The US is over a year into disaster and unemployment is 9.5 ish.

Uneployment is a lagging indicator of course.

Is that both ways?

Just wondering how that debt is going to be sorted that's all ....

MrBurns · 10 September 2009

I'm just about to dive into the market I cant see things actually going over the edge any more. If i stick with the 4 banks Rio and BHP not a lot can go wrong.

Uncle Festivus · 10 September 2009

kennas said:
Oh dear, Australia's unemployment rate has skyrocketted to 5.8% during the worst economic disaster since Leonardo sank the Titanic. Run for the life boats!

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,26052644-462,00.html

Yes, we've put people on half pay and forced holidays. That has saved us. Of course.

The US is over a year into disaster and unemployment is 9.5 ish.

Uneployment is a lagging indicator of course.

Is that both ways?

Just wondering how that debt is going to be sorted that's all ....

20,000 full time jobs lost last month, 30,000 this month. Green shoots just keep sprouting up everywhere?

Oh to be one of those helping out the economy on reduced pay & hours, not to mention the freeze in the minimum wage rate. I can see them all lining up at the check out helping to keep us out of recession. Woops, retail sales down worse-than-expected last month?

US underemployed rate is 17%.

Apparently debt is not a problem anymore, just mark it to market peak?

Meanwhile, back in the real economy, the banking system continues to play hide & seek, with their fat pink arses hanging out from under the mahogany desks......not a pretty sight

http://www.scribd.com/doc/19144533/Slide-Show-2q-2009-Final

Average Joe · 11 September 2009

US Insider selling/buying ratio reaches 95x

$35 million to insiders buy of a whopping $367,720 in insider sales.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/most-recent-insider-sellingbuying-ratio-hits-95x

Glen48 · 11 September 2009

The F H B ends this month , the talk or a I R rise has stopped the economy dead it is tracks. House prices should start coming down soon. Unemployment is higher than the Fed's are letting on.

gooner · 11 September 2009

MrBurns said:
I'm just about to dive into the market I cant see things actually going over the edge any more. If i stick with the 4 banks Rio and BHP not a lot can go wrong.

If the crap hits the fan again, then those are the stocks that you really do not want to be in. A crap economy means low resource prices (BHP, RIO) and huge bad debts (ANZ, CBA, NAB, WBC).

TLS and WOW are fairly defensive if the crap hits.

Of the above stocks, I hold TLS

MrBurns · 11 September 2009

gooner said:
If the crap hits the fan again, then those are the stocks that you really do not want to be in. A crap economy means low resource prices (BHP, RIO) and huge bad debts (ANZ, CBA, NAB, WBC).

TLS and WOW are fairly defensive if the crap hits.

Of the above stocks, I hold TLS

Thanks, I've decided to sit on my hands for a while longer.

Uncle Festivus · 11 September 2009

Average Joe said:
US Insider selling/buying ratio reaches 95x

$35 million to insiders buy of a whopping $367,720 in insider sales.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/most-recent-insider-sellingbuying-ratio-hits-95x

Do you see more red than green???

http://www.finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx

Real1ty · 11 September 2009

Glen48 said:
Unemployment is higher than the Fed's are letting on.

Any facts to back up that statement or is it just more conspiracy rantings?

Oh, no need to answer i just realised which thread i am in

Uncle Festivus · 11 September 2009

Real1ty said:
Any facts to back up that statement or is it just more conspiracy rantings?

Oh, no need to answer i just realised which thread i am in

Most people read this thread to get the facts, instead of blind hope & rhetoric.

Go to the Feds own site for the real facts, or choose to ignore, which most do anyway?

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

Have a look at U-6 and explain that away.

dhukka · 11 September 2009

Uncle Festivus said:
20,000 full time jobs lost last month, 30,000 this month. Green shoots just keep sprouting up everywhere?

Oh to be one of those helping out the economy on reduced pay & hours, not to mention the freeze in the minimum wage rate. I can see them all lining up at the check out helping to keep us out of recession. Woops, retail sales down worse-than-expected last month?

US underemployed rate is 17%.

Apparently debt is not a problem anymore, just mark it to market peak?

Meanwhile, back in the real economy, the banking system continues to play hide & seek, with their fat pink arses hanging out from under the mahogany desks......not a pretty sight

http://www.scribd.com/doc/19144533/Slide-Show-2q-2009-Final

Good post uncle. I think the US Recession has finished, US 3Q09 GDP growth will be around 3% (mostly stimulus induced) and job losses are slowing. However the source of the problems emanated from the banks and as Uncles charts show, nothing has really changed, in fact it has gotten worse. This is one of the biggest risks to a sustainable recovery scenario and why more than a few are looking for a double dip sometime in 2010.

Sure the so-called stress tests gave a false sense of confidence that banks were OK and enabled some to raise capital, however the losses in the banking system are outstripping their ability to provide for them. The Commercial Real Estate debacle is only just starting to heat up and another wave of Alt-A mortgage rests will kick off toward the end of the year.

There will be more capital raisings needed in the US banking system, count on it.

explod · 11 September 2009

dhukka said:
Good post uncle. I think the US Recession has finished, US 3Q09 GDP growth will be around 3% (mostly stimulus induced) and job losses are slowing. .

My sources, particularly "the Pravateer newsletter" which is one of the best independant sources of the real economic situation, paint a very different picture to that.

I would be interested in the sources for your particular take ?

Uncle Festivus · 11 September 2009

dhukka said:
Good post uncle. I think the US Recession has finished, US 3Q09 GDP growth will be around 3% (mostly stimulus induced) and job losses are slowing. However the source of the problems emanated from the banks and as Uncles charts show, nothing has really changed, in fact it has gotten worse. This is one of the biggest risks to a sustainable recovery scenario and why more than a few are looking for a double dip sometime in 2010.

Sure the so-called stress tests gave a false sense of confidence that banks were OK and enabled some to raise capital, however the losses in the banking system are outstripping their ability to provide for them. The Commercial Real Estate debacle is only just starting to heat up and another wave of Alt-A mortgage rests will kick off toward the end of the year.

There will be more capital raisings needed in the US banking system, count on it.

GDP = Government Derived Propaganda

Yes, as long as the money keeps rollin' in the show will continue, but Geithner has just said the show is about to come to an end. Surely we can take him at his word, so it looks like the banks can now bank roll the recovery by themselves, seeing how they are now flush with profits.

It's remarkable that nobody cares that the GDP figures are almost entirely made up of government spending; even China's GDP would be around 2% without it, when they need around 8% just to stand still. The export market to the USA fell again the last month, another 25% yoy fall.

The US debt to GDP percent will be over 100 next year ie they will be flat out just paying the interest bill, let alone the principle. BTW, current interest bill is approx $10BILLION per week.

Meanwhile, our very own sub prime bubble is percolating away not so quietly, thanks to the RBA caught between a rock & a hard place with the interest rate increase button covered by glass marked <break in case of runaway inflation - caution - takes 6 months for effect>

dhukka · 12 September 2009

explod said:
My sources, particularly "the Pravateer newsletter" which is one of the best independant sources of the real economic situation, paint a very different picture to that.

I would be interested in the sources for your particular take ?

On the jobs front the evidence couldn't be clearer, US job losses have slowed considerably as shown below.

Remember that US GDP is reported at an annual rate so for a 3% annual rate of growth the third quarter would need to grow at 0.75%. I think that is realistic given the cash for clunkers stimulus to industrial production and the fact that housing and employment will be less of a drag.

Donga · 12 September 2009

I might live to eat these words, but even from sunny Barcelona where I am this week, as compared to the lucky country, I am staggered this thread still exists. Guys give up, the recovery is well underway and while some of you have been waiting for this I & S correction, a wonderful bull opportunity is passing you by. See you at the ASX 5000 ticker tape by the end of the year.

Real1ty · 12 September 2009

Uncle Festivus said:
Most people read this thread to get the facts, instead of blind hope & rhetoric.

Go to the Feds own site for the real facts, or choose to ignore, which most do anyway?

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

Have a look at U-6 and explain that away.

I would say that most people that contribute to this thread do so to try to discredit the up move in the market, not fact just my opinion.

Not sure why you replied to my post as i didn't quote your statement but that of another poster or was it the "conspiracy rant" part that caught your attention :

I asked a poster if he had facts to back up his claim that the unemployment figures are higher than are being reported.

You then gave a link to the official reported stats from the official USDOL site.

So how are they being hidden when they are there for all to see?

jiggy · 13 September 2009

I think most bm's Uncle festivus and co posting their rantings on this thread also believe the US gov't has aliens at their military bases and that we also never landed on the moon.

I think these guys have become even more delusional because they have either been shorting this market on their distorted beliefs and blown themselves up or have missed the 40% plus upward movement in the share market and are obviously very bitter.

Can't wait until they stop blaming the Fed, US gov't etc and start blaming the aliens instead

There's always going to be a few who post who have obviously lost some of their marbles

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