Imminent and severe market correction

[nunthewiser]

2700- 2900 overall bottom .......... no time limit given ............ china will be the catalyst for the final leg down ..... merely opinion only

happy to trade either direction in the meantime

please take a number on any attempts at discrediting my opinion .

 

[Sean K]

You sound like a jerk!

Kettle, this is pot, over.

 

[nunthewiser]

Kettle, this is pot, over.

LOL ..... sorry for my low content post but THAT deserved a giggle

 

[Whiskers]

I think most bm's Uncle festivus and co posting their rantings on this thread also believe the US gov't has aliens at their military bases and that we also never landed on the moon.

I think these guys have become even more delusional because they have either been shorting this market on their distorted beliefs and blown themselves up or have missed the 40% plus upward movement in the share market and are obviously very bitter.

Can't wait until they stop blaming the Fed, US gov't etc and start blaming the aliens instead

There's always going to be a few who post who have obviously lost some of their marbles

Hey jiggy, I am one who has dissagreed with Uncle about the severity of the current/past correction... BUT I don't discount the seriousness of the statistics he refers too and the associated economic problems.

Page 114 - 12 April 2008

[ QUOTE=Whiskers;282078]My main arguement why this downturn will not be as severe as some expect.

The residue will carry over for another day.

I just dissagree a bit about the timeframe and cycles that it will fall out in. I suspect that is because I place a greater emphasis on the psychology of the markets and regulators than the economic data itself.

Assuming the market has bottomed for the time being, maybe a year or two, the economic mess the US is in can't be just patched up and deferred indeffinately by political will.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Risking the rath of the Pollyanna Brigade to quote a bear journalist (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard), the heart of the problem is not only still there, but is getting worse. So it may have been an equity bottom, but yet to reach an economic bottom?

Negative money velocity & trade wars.......the globalised race to the bottom for the cheapest labour & the end of the consumer middle classes?

Both bank credit and the M3 money supply in the United States have been contracting at rates comparable to the onset of the Great Depression since early summer, raising fears of a double-dip recession in 2010 and a slide into debt-deflation.

Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said US bank loans have fallen at an annual pace of almost 14pc in the three months to August (from $7,147bn to $6,886bn).

"There has been nothing like this in the USA since the 1930s," he said. "The rapid destruction of money balances is madness."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-prompting-fears-of-double-dip-recession.html

 

[GumbyLearner]

Kettle, this is pot, over.

I know Kennas. I'm a hypocrite of the highest order and make outlandish claims without using any substantive argument or evidence to back up my posts. If you weren't a Mod I'm sure you would put me on Ignore.

I'm sure my ranting contributions to ASF are useless and mostly bordering on the ridiculous.

But at least, I know I'm still a Gumby and still a Learner.

 

[swm79]

Risking the rath of the Pollyanna Brigade to quote a bear journalist (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard), the heart of the problem is not only still there, but is getting worse. So it may have been an equity bottom, but yet to reach an economic bottom?

Negative money velocity & trade wars.......the globalised race to the bottom for the cheapest labour & the end of the consumer middle classes?



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-prompting-fears-of-double-dip-recession.html

if thats the case (banks reducing ratios refered to in the article) that means divs by the banks will have to be cut - that will be a first - alternatively we may see banks holding on to more profits OR issuing more equity....

therefore, banks will be re-rated downwards

hhhhmmmmm big issues there

 

[swm79]

i read this quote somewhere.... exactly how i see it at the moment

well... maybe not EXACTLY... there are still SOME cheap(ish) stocks out there worth getting on.... but not many!

...as long as the economy seems to be on the mend, investors' "appetite for risk" improves. They want to speculate on the recovery. But then, when the recovery proves an illusion...they're going to run for cover.

 

[swm79]

Good article from The Daily Reckoning:

We continue to laugh at recovery sightings. Yesterday, for example, the Fed reported to the nation that a recovery was underway. But even the Fed couldn't ignore the fact that consumers aren't spending money the way they used to. The New York Times comments:

"The prolonged slump in consumer spending has been one of the most serious points of worry for economists, and the Fed's warning about it deflated some of the market's optimism. About 70 percent of the economy depends on spending by consumers."

The other sticky wicket in this game is unemployment. Jobless ranks are swelling like a floating corpse. But the jobless numbers don't tell the whole story. There are 34 million Americans who live on food stamps. One out of every nine people depends on the government for his daily bread. The Financial Times fills in the details:

"Less attention has been paid to those still in the workforce, whose incomes are also being squeezed. The average working week is now about 33 hours, the lowest on record, while the number forced to work part- time because they cannot find full-time work has risen more than 50 per cent in the past year to a record 8.8m. Wages and benefits have decelerated.

"The food stamp data suggest that 'the labour market problems are more significant than you would expect, given just the unemployment rate', said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo. 'For me it suggests the consumer is not going to rebound or contribute to economic growth for the next year, as the consumer would in a traditional economic recovery.'

"Consumer spending has traditionally been the engine of the US economy, making up about two thirds of GDP. Economists fear that people may be unwilling to resume that role.

"Food stamps are distributed once a month on electronic cards that can be spent at many grocery stores. The $787bn stimulus bill added about $80 (€55, £50) to a family's monthly allowance, which now stands at an average $290.

Nothing very original about keeping the masses fed with government food. The Romans figured it out 2,000 years ago. You have to distract the mob with pane et circenses (bread and circuses). Otherwise, they vote you out of office...or burn down the capitol.

"Everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses," wrote Juvenal.

 

[grace]

2700- 2900 overall bottom .......... no time limit given ............ china will be the catalyst for the final leg down ..... merely opinion only

happy to trade either direction in the meantime

please take a number on any attempts at discrediting my opinion .

Hey nun, I hope you are right actually. Why do you think china will be the catalyst for the final leg down....what news do you expect? Just curious.

 

[jonojpsg]

Hey nun, I hope you are right actually. Why do you think china will be the catalyst for the final leg down....what news do you expect? Just curious.

Hey grace, sorry to butt in, but I would have thought the bad news from China would be along the lines of, "Hey, we've spent all we can for the moment on stimulus and our banks have lent all they can for the purposes of increasing the value of real estate and we've bought up all the spare base metals we need for the moment, and, oh yes, our domestic demand isn't quite enough to make up for the massive drop in US/other demand so our GDP figures for the next year(or year after next) will actually be more like 4% rather than 8% - sorry"

That might shake the index down a thousand IMO of course

 

[nunthewiser]

Hey nun, I hope you are right actually. Why do you think china will be the catalyst for the final leg down....what news do you expect? Just curious.

basically a wake up call on the big "china dream" everyone counting on to continue the wheels turning ... not many ppl actually looking at some of the facts re industry in china ie stell mills closing by the dozen , stockpiles building ....... trade negotiations getting tightened ....... money lending tightening . . china is the "great white hope" everywhere one looks and they have the power to put the screws on currencies , resources , precious metals at any time they wish .....

i could be wrong but i truly believe that china is where this game of chess hits checkmate ...... i could be wrong ........ i am often ......

i am no economist , just a dude with an opinion on what i see around me and what i read between the lines in the media/business pages

but i truly think we and the rest of the so called develpoed world in for a major shakeup when the master chess players decide they have positioned themselves to there full advantage for pulling the rug out

OPINION ONLY

take from it what you wish

 

[nunthewiser]

in my dribbling all that it does NOT mean i will sit on my hands waiting for my thoughts to come true either .. happy to trade and add to various long term positions when i see fit and in no way going to waste time over it waiting for something that MAY never happen

my posts are my thoughts only , i am in no way qualified in economics, i cant even bloody spell .....

just my thoughts

 

[grace]

basically a wake up call on the big "china dream" everyone counting on to continue the wheels turning ... not many ppl actually looking at some of the facts re industry in china ie stell mills closing by the dozen , stockpiles building ....... trade negotiations getting tightened ....... money lending tightening . . china is the "great white hope" everywhere one looks and they have the power to put the screws on currencies , resources , precious metals at any time they wish .....

i could be wrong but i truly believe that china is where this game of chess hits checkmate ...... i could be wrong ........ i am often ......

i am no economist , just a dude with an opinion on what i see around me and what i read between the lines in the media/business pages

but i truly think we and the rest of the so called develpoed world in for a major shakeup when the master chess players decide they have positioned themselves to there full advantage for pulling the rug out

OPINION ONLY

take from it what you wish

Yes, it is a very dangerous game we play indeed. My thoughts perhaps more on the line of how the USA/China financial conflict will play out.

 

[nunthewiser]

Yes, it is a very dangerous game we play indeed, pegging all of our dreams on a communist country.

yep a country thats already proven that contracts agreed on are not worth a pinch of poo when it comes to the crunch

we are on one playing field with our rules/ways of doing business . they play on there field and play the ggame how it suits them best in the long run REGARDLESS of our rules

who,s gunna argue with them over it , who is going to enforce any break of queensbury rules when it comes to the crunch ...

 

[nunthewiser]

maybe im just paranoid and its all sunshine and lollipops after all

 

[jono_oz]

Yes, it is a very dangerous game we play indeed, pegging all of our dreams on a communist country.

I totally agree - you just have to see how commodities go up and down on the mere mention of a Chinese slow down - let alone an actual one!!

So many people forget that they are indeed still a communist country where the only rights are those of the Supreme Council.

Ask Mr Hu - he knows just what that means.

 

[jiggy]

Good article from The Daily Reckoning:

Lol ...Daily Reckoning is such a "balanced" newsletter to refer to lol......says it all really.........:fu::321::headshake:shake:

I thoughts bonds were at current levels due to the spectre of coming deflation??!!!!!!

 

[Sean K]

Lol ...Daily Reckoning is such a "balanced" newsletter to refer to lol......says it all really.........:fu::321::headshake:shake:

I thoughts bonds were at current levels due to the spectre of coming deflation??!!!!!!

I didn't see anything in that related to bonds and deflation.

What's your 'balanced' view?

 

[wayneL]

Lol ...Daily Reckoning is such a "balanced" newsletter to refer to lol......says it all really.........:fu::321::headshake:shake:

I thoughts bonds were at current levels due to the spectre of coming deflation??!!!!!!

Speaking of balanced...