Imminent and severe market correction

[Macquack]

I think most bm's Uncle festivus and co posting their rantings on this thread also believe the US gov't has aliens at their military bases and that we also never landed on the moon.

I think these guys have become even more delusional because they have either been shorting this market on their distorted beliefs and blown themselves up or have missed the 40% plus upward movement in the share market and are obviously very bitter.

Can't wait until they stop blaming the Fed, US gov't etc and start blaming the aliens instead

There's always going to be a few who post who have obviously lost some of their marbles

So jiggy, you reckon the Global Financial Crisis didn't happen either?

 

[Nyden]

So jiggy, you reckon the Global Financial Crisis didn't happen either?

I don't think anyone believes that, but many of us are merely playing with what's actually happening, and what's being presented - not what we hope will happen. In other words, the recession may be over

If you go back to threads in 01-02, I'm sure there were many calling for the last recession to keep on going as well. For new lows to be reached, idiots completely cashed up, waiting for the 'grand fall', guess what happened to them? They're money was enormously eroded, and they lost huge amounts of spending power (vs property, shares, basically everything).

At the moment, the risks of not being in the market still greatly outweigh the risks of being in it. I've been averaging 3-4% a blooming week! Anyone not seeing what is going on, is completely blind. Simple as that

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I think most bm's Uncle festivus and co posting their rantings on this thread also believe the US gov't has aliens at their military bases and that we also never landed on the moon.

I think these guys have become even more delusional because they have either been shorting this market on their distorted beliefs and blown themselves up or have missed the 40% plus upward movement in the share market and are obviously very bitter.

Can't wait until they stop blaming the Fed, US gov't etc and start blaming the aliens instead

There's always going to be a few who post who have obviously lost some of their marbles

That's a nice reposte but as usual zero facts to back any of it up with, just some unsubstantiated conjecture, especially the bit about going short etc. You must have some special power to be able to know how & what I trade?

Apparently you are unable to appreciate someone trying to put forward an apparently alternative view, based on facts and government data, fwiw.

The central banks have done an excellent job in passing the current problem into the future but basically the same fundamental problems, which got us here in the first place, still exist, as per charts from FDIC.

Perhaps you can explain how these charts are incorrect, or for that matter, do you actually understand them?

 

[Knobby22]

True Festivus.
Even the regulation of banking in the US is going badly. If we are not careful, it will all happen again within 10 years and this time there will be no escape.

I can see the USA becoming a socialist state in the future where socialism is practised on companies and banks but not individuals.

The bipartinship over there is frightening. I am usually pretty positive but am really starting to get scared.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Simple mathematics for the USA (and others ie debt to GDP ratio's) - money coming in does not equel money going out = huge deficit(s)

Only the timing is unknown???

 

[Sean K]

Simple mathematics for the USA (and others ie debt to GDP ratio's) - money coming in does not equel money going out = huge deficit(s)

Only the timing is unknown???

Any chance this will be fixed over time?

 

[swm79]

China is four or five times as big in population, but on a per capita basis they still are 1/25 the earnings power of the US.

John R Talbott is a former investment banker with Goldman Sachs and author of Obamanomics and The 86 Biggest Lies on Wall Street:

Australia is heavily import and export dependent and so I’ll bet businessmen in Australia looks mostly to China, Japan and the US to predict Australia’s export function and China right now is doing very well and Australia is seeing a big commodities boom because of it. But whereas it was real over the last 20 years, this year, I don’t think it’s real. This year I think the Chinese government is just propping up commodity prices. They’re making too many purchases, given the economic outlook. China itself is not an independent economy. They produce and manufacture for the US, so if the US is not consuming, China is going to have to slow down. They are not going to be able to replace all of their exports to the US with domestic consumption.

The way I would draw it is I don’t think this is the recovery we’re experiencing now. I think what we’re on is a 'straight down' slope and if you’re seeing any positive numbers coming out of Australia or China or the US, they’re a direct result of huge government interference. The Chinese economy is less than a $2 trillion economy when measured at market exchange rates and yet they have a stimulus plan of over $500 billion. The US economy spent $700 billion overnight on a TARP [Troubled Asset Relief Program] plan and there are suggestions that they may have either given away or invested or spent or guaranteed something like $23 trillion of commercial paper and bank deposits and money market funds. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac debt, etc, etc, etc.

So, with that huge level of government involvement, there’s got to be some sort of blip in the short run, but again, you don’t get out of the downward spiral unless you address the fundamental issues and the fundamental issues are too much borrowing, too much corrupt practice, too much criminal practice going on on Wall Street and a huge amount of government, corporate and individual debt that has to be repaid. People were borrowing against their homes in the US for decades and that’s all stopped and now they’ve got the debt and they don’t have the house and now they’ve got to pay all that back. That’s got to slow consumption.

It took a major financial crisis that almost bankrupted the global financial system to make people realise that we had a very serious problem occurring in our financial system and what did we do? We raced around like Humpty Dumpty soldiers and horses trying to put the old system back together again and we put together these banks that were too big to fail. We put back together the credit default swap market and the derivatives market which is so interconnected you can’t allow anybody to claim bankruptcy. We tried to put back together the securitisation market which allowed banks to completely flush assets with no risk to their balance sheets and to throw all the risk onto other parties and so, you know, there’s a reason why the global financial system almost collapsed. It seems silly to me for our reforms to put that same system back together again and if they’re successful in doing it, then all we’re doing is delaying the day of mourning when this all happens again.

 

[lasty]

"China is four or five times as big in population, but on a per capita basis they still are 1/25 the earnings power of the US."

Yup but those figures of wealthy US citizens is some what misleading.
A small percentage holds the wealth in the US
Take Leichenstein for example GDP per capita the rank number 1 in the world.

 

[swm79]

"China is four or five times as big in population, but on a per capita basis they still are 1/25 the earnings power of the US."

Yup but those figures of wealthy US citizens is some what misleading.
A small percentage holds the wealth in the US
Take Leichenstein for example GDP per capita the rank number 1 in the world.

thats all well and good but that misses the point.

the point is that China produces for US to consume... therefore any slow down in the rate of consumption in the US is going to have a negative effect in china.... and therefore australia.

America doesnt consume -> china doesnt produce -> china doesnt purchase our resources

Then add to that the fact that nothing has been fixed in the US - TARP was given to Paulson's friends on Wall Street and that China is trying to get rid of their US bonds by issuing quazi-sub-prime loans and its 2008 all over again!

What happens when the stimulus packages are wound back? The US has got $23 trillion of guarantees out there.

How do you go into a market place like the money market or the commercial banks and tell their investors 'by the way you no longer have a government guarantee' and how do you scale back huge government programs when that’s the only thing that’s supporting any type of GDP growth?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Any chance this will be fixed over time?

Yes, if they reduce Social Security and Medicare to minimum?, a 50% or more cut to the military budget, and an elimination of all other federal programs? Apart from that, there shouldn't be too much disruption to daily life?

 

[swm79]

Yes, if they reduce Social Security and Medicare to minimum?, a 50% or more cut to the military budget, and an elimination of all other federal programs? Apart from that, there shouldn't be too much disruption to daily life?

Obama's got a social security and Medicare deficit that has a negative present value of something like $35 trillion to $40 trillion and Americans have started savings, but they’re not saving that many trillion dollars a year. To get to fund $2 trillion, they need all of America’s savings and all of China to continue their savings in US Treasury securities, like they have historically, and then they need some more....

 

[jiggy]

I wish i could copy and paste paragraphs and pull up charts that that try to justify the distorted beliefs of those on the extreme.

Sounds like there are alot of shorters who have blown themselves up

maybe if you didn't believe in so much of the rubbish and conspiracy theories u purport you might not be so bitter and make some money.

A good book called - Sharemarket investing for dummies. ......................could be a good start

Just to add to the common theme on this thread........................Aliens are buying treasuries not the chinese

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I wish i could copy and paste paragraphs and pull up charts that that try to justify the distorted beliefs of those on the extreme.

Sounds like there are alot of shorters who have blown themselves up

maybe if you didn't believe in so much of the rubbish and conspiracy theories u purport you might not be so bitter and make some money.

A good book called - Sharemarket investing for dummies. ......................could be a good start

Just to add to the common theme on this thread........................Aliens are buying treasuries not the chinese

That doesn't make sense, but good luck to you. Why are you trying to justify the distorted beliefs of those on the extreme?

I wish you were smart enought to post some sort of supporting documentation too, but as that's not possible you should just stick to being a Lemming

Where are these shorters that have blown themselves up - any facts to back that up??

Now about the 'rubbish & conspiracy theories', which would they be exactly?

The ones that show charts and stats from the US Federal Reserve, or maybe the FDIC, or various government released statistics?? Make some money - where did that $130k come from??

Start posting something factual to back your, loosly termed "argument", or go back to the kiddies creche in PollyAnna land.

 

[swm79]

I wish i could copy and paste paragraphs and pull up charts that that try to justify the distorted beliefs of those on the extreme.

Sounds like there are alot of shorters who have blown themselves up

maybe if you didn't believe in so much of the rubbish and conspiracy theories u purport you might not be so bitter and make some money.

A good book called - Sharemarket investing for dummies. ......................could be a good start

Just to add to the common theme on this thread........................Aliens are buying treasuries not the chinese

hahahahahahahahahaha

GREAT argument... who mentioned anything about being short or making losses???

i've made money on the rally... but the "cut and paste jobs" are indicating that this rally may be running out of steam

if you want me to back that up with some "facts" (or leading indicator alarm bells) then i've got some for you: iron ore spot price down 25% since 2009 highs, chinese HRC price down 20%, Baltic dry down over 40% from 09 peak, base metal pirces down 5-10%, chinese equity market fallen 205 recently... gold up... US bond yeilds weak indicating downturn, but markets indicate a recovery???

by all means keep playing your "conspiracy theory" drum.... each to their own

 

[communique]

Have a little respect jiggy. The reason this thread is in existence is because of Uncle. His first post alerted everyone to what eventually happened.

 

[swm79]

Have a little respect SWM. The reason this thread is in existence is because of Uncle. His first post alerted everyone to what eventually happened.

huh? if you read my posts me and UF agree... my last post is to jiggy

 

[communique]

huh? if you read my posts me and UF agree... my last post is to jiggy

Apologies. I should have said Jiggy.

 

[swm79]

Apologies. I should have said Jiggy.

ok.

he discredits the thoughts of everyone by talking about "conspiracy theories" and "aliens" because he doesnt understand the consequences of what he's reading. he obviously doesnt know what any of it means.

he cant provide any counter arguments or facts... even if they are cut and paste

 

[wayneL]

I wish i could copy and paste paragraphs and pull up charts that that try to justify the distorted beliefs of those on the extreme.

Sounds like there are alot of shorters who have blown themselves up

maybe if you didn't believe in so much of the rubbish and conspiracy theories u purport you might not be so bitter and make some money.

A good book called - Sharemarket investing for dummies. ......................could be a good start

Just to add to the common theme on this thread........................Aliens are buying treasuries not the chinese

There is a certain sort of person who feels the need to go all ad hominem and build silly straw man arguments against those who hold the opposite view.

It's childish!

Why should you give a rat's jiggy? There is something pathological about your post here. It's an opinion and people will trade to it for better or for worse.

As it happens, economy bears are doing pretty OK on gold.

BTW, how many Sharemarket Investing for Dummies bought at 6500?

...and FWIW, I'm pretty much a market neutral and or MOMO trader. I couldn't give a **** which way the market is going. Actually, I do best when not much is happening at all.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Aliens are buying treasuries not the chinese

And aliens are also controlling the mark-to-market accounting rules of the major banks on Wall Street.

You really should dyor jiggy.

You sound like a jerk!