ILU - Iluka Resources

[oldblue]

From FN Arena.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=ACE458AB-BE07-8714-86EB95FAC1A1F36D

I don't hold ILU.

 

[mark299]

ILU: ILUKA RESOURCES

Latest update from BuySellSignals

http://www.buysellsignals.com/10211121

Does anyone have any idea why this share price is decreasing today?

 

[tinhat]

Re: ILU: ILUKA RESOURCES

Latest update from BuySellSignals

http://www.buysellsignals.com/10211121

Does anyone have any idea why this share price is decreasing today?

Because share prices don't travel in straight lines. I think your article explains it - taking a rest. ILU share price is fairly quick to close any gaps and it gapped up yesterday. It will have to come back down to 17.84 to fill in yesterday's gap which it might do at some stage over the next few weeks.

 

[mark299]

Re: ILU: ILUKA RESOURCES

Because share prices don't travel in straight lines. I think your article explains it - taking a rest. ILU share price is fairly quick to close any gaps and it gapped up yesterday. It will have to come back down to 17.84 to fill in yesterday's gap which it might do at some stage over the next few weeks.

Thanks for the reply. Is ILU a good long term investment ? 3 years or more!

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: ILU: ILUKA RESOURCES

Thanks for the reply. Is ILU a good long term investment ? 3 years or more!

3 years? will the BRIC bubble continue?

Pull up the ILU 3 year price chart and tell me where you would want to enter and now look at how far we are from that point.

 

[robusta]

Downgraded sales forecast out today, sp down about 20%. I think with a long term view buying below $9 should work out ok.

 

[tinhat]

Downgraded sales forecast out today, sp down about 20%. I think with a long term view buying below $9 should work out ok.

I think that if you believe that the world is not going to end soon then the price is a great price to buy at. My days of catching falling knifes are over though. Would rather wait for a turn around in price and buy with momentum.

 

[Boggo]

Re: ILU: ILUKA RESOURCES

Does anyone have any idea why this share price is decreasing today?

Pull up the ILU 3 year price chart and tell me where you would want to enter and now look at how far we are from that point.

The weekly chart tells the story, you can see where the smart (in the know) money was exiting.
Another classic example of when the news hits the streets its already done and dusted and all that are left are the mum and dad investors.

(Please folks, don't turn this into another tech vs fundamental discussion. The intention of this post is to highlight this as another example of where its too late when the news hits the streets, the smart money who are in the know have been and are gone. BBG was another recent example of the same)

(click to expand)

 

[skc]

Re: ILU: ILUKA RESOURCES

The weekly chart tells the story, you can see where the smart (in the know) money was exiting.
Another classic example of when the news hits the streets its already done and dusted and all that are left are the mum and dad investors.

(Please folks, don't turn this into another tech vs fundamental discussion. The intention of this post is to highlight this as another example of where its too late when the news hits the streets, the smart money who are in the know have been and are gone. BBG was another recent example of the same)

I think this perfectly illustrates the "confluence" of fundamental and technical analysis. The smart money is fundamental analysis. Technical analysis attempts to read the fundamental analysis done by others. Some times one camp gets it more right than the other.

The bottom line is... you can be a fundamental guy or you can be a technical guy - but you need to be good and to be right in order to make money.

And my musing back in Aug 2011...

So ILU has HY NPAT of $146m... so full year is around $300m? $350m?

And their market cap is... WTF $6.7B That's like a PE ~20.

Can someone explain why they deserve such high earning multiple?

The chart is looking like it's going to roll over...

 

[robusta]

I think that if you believe that the world is not going to end soon then the price is a great price to buy at. My days of catching falling knifes are over though. Would rather wait for a turn around in price and buy with momentum.

Probably all academic for me anyways, my buy order is in at $8.32 I would be interested if anyone technically minded would hazard a guess as to where the next support is however.

 

[pixel]

Probably all academic for me anyways, my buy order is in at $8.32 I would be interested if anyone technically minded would hazard a guess as to where the next support is however.

$8.32 is the obvious support level (from early 2011).
If that failed, I'd short down to $7.50-ish, with luck even $6.85.

Have to draw a fairly long bow to find a reasonable set of target figures...

 

[robusta]

$8.32 is the obvious support level (from early 2011).
If that failed, I'd short down to $7.50-ish, with luck even $6.85.

Have to draw a fairly long bow to find a reasonable set of target figures...

View attachment 47807

Cheers pixel I agree in the short term the sp is a bit of a lottery, they are in a better financial position now than 2011 however.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I wouldn't be making a decision today.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

The support at $8 will be big enough to ensure it doesn't even touch it. How close then? $8.15? Not today, tomorrow.

 

[robusta]

The support at $8 will be big enough to ensure it doesn't even touch it. How close then? $8.15? Not today, tomorrow.

Thank you for that it would be nice to pick this one up closer to $8.00 than to $8.50. I will be hoping for a risk off night on Wall Street.

 

[Boggo]

Thank you for that it would be nice to pick this one up closer to $8.00 than to $8.50. I will be hoping for a risk off night on Wall Street.

If it stabilizes in the blue area it could be of interest, otherwise stand back.

(click to expand)

 

[Gringotts Bank]

boggo, it's missing today's vital candle.

 

[Boggo]

boggo, it's missing today's vital candle.

You will have to display what you mean GB.

(I am going out to their Jacinth-Ambrosia project site in west SA on the 18th for the day)

 

[Ves]

A certain Buffett-wannabe said that this was trading at a discount to intrinsic value as recently as May. Fairly sure his program also put a value of $18 on it at the time too. Wonder what it is today?

A great example of a stock that looks fantastic if you look through the rear view mirror.

 

[robusta]

A certain Buffett-wannabe said that this was trading at a discount to intrinsic value as recently as May. Fairly sure his program also put a value of $18 on it at the time too. Wonder what it is today?

A great example of a stock that looks fantastic if you look through the rear view mirror.

Once again this highlights the trouble RM has with relying on forecasts, happily this can create opportunity when those forecasts are missed. As long as the downgrade is not a permanent state of affairs.