ILU - Iluka Resources

[reece55]

Still liking what I see here in ILU....

High level volume on the breakout, reduced volume on the inevitable pull back.... If 6.00 holds (which is about a 50% retracement of the recent upward action) and we see some positive action, hopefully we will now form a lower low and higher high to create a break of the downtrend.....

Love the substantial holder movements in this stock!!!

Cheers
Reece

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Hi Reece,

I'm in 2 minds on this one - has all the ammo been spent on this advance or is it rebuilding for another charge? I'm waiting for better confirmation, & possibly an ann from the company to the effect that the $AU hasn't affected the bottom line.

Then theres always the possibility of a takeover, still bubbling from 2 years ago?

UF

 

[Uncle Festivus]

MINERAL sands miner Iluka reported exploration success yesterday at its $400 million Eucla Basin mineral sands project in South Australia, but concerns about the high Australian dollar are weighing on sentiment.

Also yesterday, UBS hiked its forecast for the Australian dollar - causing it to slash its 2008 earnings forecast for Iluka.
The rampant domestic currency is now starting to weigh on the outlooks for companies with offshore earnings exposure.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,22024980-5005200,00.html

 

[reece55]

MINERAL sands miner Iluka reported exploration success yesterday at its $400 million Eucla Basin mineral sands project in South Australia, but concerns about the high Australian dollar are weighing on sentiment.

Also yesterday, UBS hiked its forecast for the Australian dollar - causing it to slash its 2008 earnings forecast for Iluka.
The rampant domestic currency is now starting to weigh on the outlooks for companies with offshore earnings exposure.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,22024980-5005200,00.html

Well, unfortunately looks like we received our answer today..... Bummer...

However, price action is the important element in the equation, so I will leave this one on the watchlist until we see some strength....

Still, the fund managers obviously like the Company at present.... However, PPT et al liked CDR at one stage, which took a mega backflip.....

Cheers

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Well it's happened, stating the obvious I guess. The big question is will there be more casualties from the exchange rate appreciation?

Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX: ILU.ax) fell as much as 4 percent to A$5.64 -- its lowest level in nearly five weeks -- after the mineral sands miner cut its full-year earnings forecast on Wednesday by about half, citing an unfavourable exchange rate for the Australian dollar.

 

[reece55]

Hey Uncle
ILU has reared it's head again today, I bought some about a week ago for the SMSF as a long term hold at 6.02...

Another potential higher low, all we need now is the higher high and things are looking good. Plenty of buyer interest when the earnings downgrade was announced, perhaps the substantial shareholders mopping up some cheap shares.

I continue to really like the nice movement that ILU is showing now, yes it's let us down in the past, but lets see where we go from here.

Cheers

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Hey Uncle
ILU has reared it's head again today, I bought some about a week ago for the SMSF as a long term hold at 6.02...

Another potential higher low, all we need now is the higher high and things are looking good. Plenty of buyer interest when the earnings downgrade was announced, perhaps the substantial shareholders mopping up some cheap shares.

I continue to really like the nice movement that ILU is showing now, yes it's let us down in the past, but lets see where we go from here.

Cheers

Hi Reece,
As per chat, it may indeed be some of the subs mopping up in readiness for ????? Someone accumulating maybe; the lowish volume could indicate supply drying up? Could even be desperation buying from those in the know getting set?
Certainly a day out of the ordinary.

 

[ozambersand]

Gee I love watching the bids for the pre-market auction. Someone is bidding 8000 shares at $70 each for Iluka shares!

I'd sell mine if I thought that would actually happen! Lucky for whoever it is, the actual price doesn't get taken into account!

 

[Dutchy3]

This one on the verge of altering direction on a weeking basis ... the shocks of the last few weeks now starting to wear rather thin on some of the stocks defining their own futures ... chart later

 

[somesortoftrader]

Has anyone been following ILU closely in the last week?

Seems they have dropped (read plunged) on the back of a profit down-grade,..... which is based on a rising Australian dollar, and maybe on a prelonged high Australian dollar? Any thoughts? seems the drop is greater than it should be.

Also should the board be questioned in relation to the timing of the announcement? The announcement seems to be timed conveniently after the DRP (dividend reinvestment plan) has bought shares at a much higher price. They [the board] would surely have known they were planning to release the profit downgrade. They [the board] have hardly done me any favours with that one!

 

[CanOz]

Hey Uncle
ILU has reared it's head again today, I bought some about a week ago for the SMSF as a long term hold at 6.02...

Another potential higher low, all we need now is the higher high and things are looking good. Plenty of buyer interest when the earnings downgrade was announced, perhaps the substantial shareholders mopping up some cheap shares.

I continue to really like the nice movement that ILU is showing now, yes it's let us down in the past, but lets see where we go from here.

Cheers

Curious to know when or if you got out of this Reese? Guessing that your shorting it with a few CFDs to hedge.

Cheers,

 

[reece55]

Curious to know when or if you got out of this Reese? Guessing that your shorting it with a few CFDs to hedge.

Cheers,

Hi Can
Ended up getting out quite quickly out of this one, out at about 6.35 - 6.40 from memory, which was just about the high (thank god). After reviewing the forecast for the AUD:USD at the time, I didn't want a large exposure to the USD. Add to the fact that the it just could stay above the 200 MA and the 6.40 zone had heavy sellers. In the end I opted for a quick profit, as the stock was still in a primary downtrend. God is it looking ugly now - you shorting Can, I know that Nick actually called this one perfectly a while back.

Cheers

 

[CanOz]

Hi Can
Ended up getting out quite quickly out of this one, out at about 6.35 - 6.40 from memory, which was just about the high (thank god). After reviewing the forecast for the AUD:USD at the time, I didn't want a large exposure to the USD. Add to the fact that the it just could stay above the 200 MA and the 6.40 zone had heavy sellers. In the end I opted for a quick profit, as the stock was still in a primary downtrend. God is it looking ugly now - you shorting Can, I know that Nick actually called this one perfectly a while back.

Cheers

No i'm not short anything...except maybe time...just finished the super busy time here and into the busy time...i've got two posi's on, but its hard to find the time for the analysis. I think i'll leave it to my GF.

Cheers,

 

[Buddy]

I am very disappointed in the performance of this company and it's new CEO. Has anyone noticed that since his departure from Wesfarmers to Iluka, the performace of this share has gone from around a $7 share to $4 - 4.50. Half year results are now out, and OK, have been knocked by the exchange rate. (Now there's a story in there too, why are mineral sands so dependant on the dead US$?) SO now we suffering shareholders are being told that there is no interim dividend. I honestly cannot remember the last time Iluka (or Westralian Sands) did not pay a dividend. All I can say is, poor performance Mr Robb.

 

[Buddy]

Share price down 16% today.
Either the market has no idea, or this is a very, very poor performance.
I suggest the latter.

 

[Buddy]

Records go all the way back to 1987, and 2 dividends have been paid every year since then (I held them back in 1987), until this year. Good one Mr Robb. Well done. : Actually, pathetic!

 

[reece55]

Yeah, well it was a pretty sad state of affairs today, hammered down on the result (well, i think mostly the forecast).....

It's a pity, my uncle works for them in Native Title and his view is that the Eucla Basin stuff has only just begun and it's going to be terrific for them..... Still, it's price that pays and at the moment this is a stock that no one wants.... Got hand it to Nick, he had been calling this one as a long term short for ages and I just refused to go along with the analysis - looks like he was right on the money....

Cheers

 

[Dutchy3]

Bought this one today

Looks to me like the SP could close above resistance 490 - 500 this week.

Nice volumes in the last few months suggests that a base may have formed

 

[mattyhammer]

I was just checking out the ILU page on the ASX site and noticed a massive volume spike (around 40000000 shares traded) on 22 Aug 08. I had a look at their announcements and PPT bought in but from what I can see they accumulated IVO 800000 shares. Anyone know how to find out who and what was bought & sold on that day? Seems to be a buy cos the share price rose again over the next few days to correct the quick loss a few days preceding the buy in. The Volume is a bit out of the ordinary, that's all.

 

[[t..o..m]]

Iluka increases profit forecast

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=647336

Looks like the extremely low aussie dollar is doing wonders for ILU - $50 Mill expected profit increase from $20 Mill!