ILU - Iluka Resources

[So_Cynical]

Iluka is approaching a new 12 month (52-wk Low 3.04) and near 10 year low after
announcing that it will reduce production due to weak demand for its major products
thus far in 2009.

http://www.iluka.com/Default.aspx?page=130&did=453

So will ILU bounce now as it always seems to do, or can it go much lower, i would think
that "on paper" there is more SP downside...but the SP seems to be super resilient...at
least that's been the case so far...resilient as in no big March09 sell off and the Oct/Nov08
low coincided with the big (WA) interruption to gas supply and resulting reduced production.

Perhaps some of the long term holders will be tempted to bail now as there's been no
dividend sine 06 and looks to be a few years yet till ILU would be in a position to pay a
dividend again.

Would seem to be a great channel trading opportunity. :dunno:

 

[So_Cynical]

Hit a low of 2.83 today...i got in at 2.95...time will tell if i got it right :dunno:
closed above $3 so showing some resilience in the SP at these levels.

There is still lots to like about Iluka.

• World #1 Zircon producer (34%)
• World #2 titanium minerals Producer (18%)
• Sales revenue before hedging $1,018 million.
• Reserves equal to 10x 2008 production.
• Gearing (net debt/net debt + equity) was 17.4% at 31 Dec 2008.
• Top 20 hold over 75%

 

[bleach8]

Hit a low of 2.83 today...i got in at 2.95...time will tell if i got it right :dunno:
closed above $3 so showing some resilience in the SP at these levels.

There is still lots to like about Iluka.

• World #1 Zircon producer (34%)
• World #2 titanium minerals Producer (18%)
• Sales revenue before hedging $1,018 million.
• Reserves equal to 10x 2008 production.
• Gearing (net debt/net debt + equity) was 17.4% at 31 Dec 2008.
• Top 20 hold over 75%

I bought some at 3.07 just before it closed. I thought i would break 3.10 which would create a nice candle with volume. however, it came down to 3.01 , the candle doesnt look as good as before. it is still positive signal ...interesting to see what will happen to the price tomorrow. i predict its price will go lower again and bonce back within 2-3 trading days. I will close my postion at around $4 .

 

[So_Cynical]

I bought some at 3.07 just before it closed...I will close my position at around $4

The $4 target prob makes sense...with the production reductions its hard to
see ILU getting to the top of the old channel....the outlook has changed.

Lets just hope this is the turn around point.

 

[bleach8]

The $4 target prob makes sense...with the production reductions its hard to
see ILU getting to the top of the old channel....the outlook has changed.

Lets just hope this is the turn around point.

I think the current price is oversold. The outlook for ILU in 2-3years time is very positive. Zircon price is increasing this year which indicates the supply is at least matching the demand.

if the price is going down i will grab some more for sure.

 

[bleach8]

The $4 target prob makes sense...with the production reductions its hard to
see ILU getting to the top of the old channel....the outlook has changed.

Lets just hope this is the turn around point.

also, can you please tell me what would be a reasonable price to sell at the current outlook. I bought it based on today's positive candle stick. I don't have much idea of what to expect from this stock.

 

[So_Cynical]

also, can you please tell me what would be a reasonable price to sell at the current outlook. I bought it based on today's positive candle stick. I don't have much idea of what to expect from this stock.

Bleach i don't think we are allowed to give price targets, but at $4 i would be sitting on a
33%+ profit so would be very happy to exit original capital at that price....and if u look at
the 10 year chart i posted a few posts back, u will see there's been a lot of shares in Iluka
change hands at around the $4 mark.

Actually ill just bang up a quick chart to see...ah the 4.25 to 4.50 range is
very popular....ill just let the SP take me out with a stop..wherever.

 

[bleach8]

Bleach i don't think we are allowed to give price targets, but at $4 i would be sitting on a
33%+ profit so would be very happy to exit original capital at that price....and if u look at
the 10 year chart i posted a few posts back, u will see there's been a lot of shares in Iluka
change hands at around the $4 mark.

Actually ill just bang up a quick chart to see...ah the 4.25 to 4.50 range is
very popular....ill just let the SP take me out with a stop..wherever.

What do u think about today?no break through!but price after volume, we will see if it will be true! I dont really understand their 1st q production report announced today! Is it a bad news? Or? It didnt have much impact on price

 

[skc]

What do u think about today?no break through!but price after volume, we will see if it will be true! I dont really understand their 1st q production report announced today! Is it a bad news? Or? It didnt have much impact on price

The news today is bad, but price has fallen enough that the bad news is already priced in. Just look at what QAN and FLT has done after their recent profit downgrade announcement. See the news here. http://business.smh.com.au/business/iluka-march-quarter-sales-revenue-falls-772-20090416-a80o.html

I bought on the same candle yesterday looking for a reversal. My stop is yesterday's low. Today was an inside range day so nothing changes for me, although would have preferred to see an up day.

Pardon me for budding in the conversation.

 

[So_Cynical]

The news today is bad

LOL the news today is great what a difference a day can make...ILU closed
up 9% today, but was up around 12% intra day.

Below from today's ann. http://www.iluka.com/Default.aspx?page=130&did=461

Iluka intends to accept Unimin’s offer for its shareholding in (CRT) Consolidated
Rutile Limited, currently approximately 187 million shares representing approximately
51% of CRL shares, in the absence of a superior proposal.

Offer is 41 cents per share, and that should be around 75 million for Iluka, adding
substantially to Iluka's cash position...hey we mite even get a dividend out of it. :dance:

 

[ozbecool]

ILU - Iluka Resources - when to sell

RE: I don't have much idea of what to expect from this stock

<< Go to the library or a bookstore and buy some share trading books - or at least one. Or alternatively browse the net for GENERIC exit strategies - there are many to choose from - one of the simplest one (yet not fully optimal) is :
- keep watching the stock while it keeps climbing
- every new peak sets your new PEAK price
- when the price falls X% off the above peak then sell

Example:
- first you PRESET your X level at say 12 % (before even buying the stock, or soon after).
- assume you bought stock XYZ at $3
- then prices start climbing .. $3.2, $3.40, $3.25, $3.7 ... $4.4, $4.5 , $4.3.
- so now YOUR NEW PEAK is $4.5 and at this level SELL EXIT level = $4.5 * (1 - 0.12) = $3.96
- prices now linger ... $ 4.1, $4.4 ... $4.0 , $3.9 !!! - oops - sell trigger here
- so because $3.9 is BELOW your PREDEFINED EXIT POINT so you sell !

Note if you DO NOT sell now at $3.9 (or you adjust X to a higher % value thus lowering the EXIT PRICE) then you can as well ditch any strategy you develop because you do not conform to your own rules.

You can add to the above few more trend indicators etc (like stochastic, Donchian, bollinger bands, exponential averages) but in a nutshell the above is one of the simplest TREND FOLLOWING STRATEGIES without the need to use complex statistics etc. For more details buy yourself an excellent book written by Michael W.Covel : "TREND FOLLOWING", printed 2007. Price is now only AUS $30 at DYMOCKS BOOKSELLERS. When you read that book then you will know why I said that this is an excellent book.

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: ILU - Iluka Resources - when to sell

RE: I don't have much idea of what to expect from this stock

<< Go to the library or a bookstore and buy some share trading books - or at least one. Or alternatively browse the net for GENERIC exit strategies - there are many to choose from - one of the simplest one (yet not fully optimal) is :
- keep watching the stock while it keeps climbing
- every new peak sets your new PEAK price
- when the price falls X% off the above peak then sell

Example:
- first you PRESET your X level at say 12 % (before even buying the stock, or soon after).
- assume you bought stock XYZ at $3
- then prices start climbing .. $3.2, $3.40, $3.25, $3.7 ... $4.4, $4.5 , $4.3.
- so now YOUR NEW PEAK is $4.5 and at this level SELL EXIT level = $4.5 * (1 - 0.12) = $3.96
- prices now linger ... $ 4.1, $4.4 ... $4.0 , $3.9 !!! - oops - sell trigger here
- so because $3.9 is BELOW your PREDEFINED EXIT POINT so you sell !

Note if you DO NOT sell now at $3.9 (or you adjust X to a higher % value thus lowering the EXIT PRICE) then you can as well ditch any strategy you develop because you do not conform to your own rules.

You can add to the above few more trend indicators etc (like stochastic, Donchian, bollinger bands, exponential averages) but in a nutshell the above is one of the simplest TREND FOLLOWING STRATEGIES without the need to use complex statistics etc. For more details buy yourself an excellent book written by Michael W.Covel : "TREND FOLLOWING", printed 2007. Price is now only AUS $30 at DYMOCKS BOOKSELLERS. When you read that book then you will know why I said that this is an excellent book.

Or u can simply choose to take profit, like i did yesterday...19% in 3 weeks is fine for
me...actually i like ILU long term, so decided to leave the profit in as free carry so just
withdrew my capitol.

People try to complicate what is essentially a very simple thing...stocks go up, stocks
go down...u buy, u sell, simple...i suppose i wouldn't make much selling a 1 page book.

 

[rhen]

Is ILU ready to change direction?
The Bull states: BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

Iluka Resources (ILU)

The $84 million received from selling its 51 per cent stake in Consolidated Rutile will provide some relief regarding the debt position of this major mineral sands miner and processor. Iluka’s share price is trading near decade lows due to high levels of capital expenditure on expanding existing operations and developing new mines. Weak zircon and rutile sales in Asia is affecting the group’s profitability. Wind the clock forward a year or two, and we forecast a return to high profitability as a global economic recovery results in substantial share price gains.

Fundamentally, my regular source suggests ILU may not be ready.
However, for the daily candles, it does look interesting (to me at least) for a possible trade.

 

[So_Cynical]

Is ILU ready to change direction?
The Bull states: BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

ILU looks to be very good for a trade, well into the buy zone...buying under $3 was proven to be
profitable last time, and as nothing has really changed, i figure it will be again.

 

[Jgr64]

Anyone got any thoughts on Iluka. It's jumped from ~ $3.50's to over $4.00 in recent days (but low volume) ?

 

[So_Cynical]

Anyone got any thoughts on Iluka. It's jumped from ~ $3.50's to over $4.00 in recent days (but low volume) ?

Outlook is now positive, capital expenditure coming to an end and the global economic cycle
on the up...still i reckon $4 is toppy...keeping in mind im not a trend follower.

 

[Out Too Soon]

Looks like $4 was "toppy", I was in at 3.95 without a stop loss I still think this will recover well soon but I should have put a stop under it

Just starting to go sideways, probably about to make a break up (or down),
-hopefully up.

 

[Out Too Soon]

Well I did set a stop loss after that & I did lose a bit but who said "once bitten twice shy" I'm back in again & expecting a healthy recovery, don't know if it will get back to $4 in one climb tho.

 

[Tukker]

Well I did set a stop loss after that & I did lose a bit but who said "once bitten twice shy" I'm back in again & expecting a healthy recovery, don't know if it will get back to $4 in one climb tho.
View attachment 34508

Watch out for a double dip scenario. If the price breaks down, below 3.25, a medium downtrend could be established. Look for a bit of a recovery on Monday as selling pressure releases and then possible sell off on Wednesday onwards.

 

[Out Too Soon]

Watch out for a double dip scenario. If the price breaks down, below 3.25, a medium downtrend could be established. Look for a bit of a recovery on Monday as selling pressure releases and then possible sell off on Wednesday onwards.

Sure did "double dip", well spotted. Recovering today, hope it continues, $3.20ish is definitely abandon ship territory
Good luck to those holding, I've still got a sell in at $3.99 but that seems kinda silly at present