- Joined
- 29 November 2009
- Posts
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- 1
I see this quote a lot, particularly in regard to those flogging black box systems for many thousands of dollars.
Is this essentially a truism?
If a black box system could generate consistent profits, why would it need to be sold? Why wouldn't the developers make their fortunes by simply trading the system themselves?
Selling something to a lot of people takes a lot of energy and money. Seminars need to be arranged. Venues need to be booked. Salesmen need to be employed. The essential infrastructure of a business needs to be set up: office, P.O. Box, phone, website, and so on, and so on...
Has anyone here actually made consistent profits from following entry/exit signals from a black box system or are they all basically rubbish? If they are, why hasn't ASIC cracked down on the spruikers selling these black box systems to ordinary Aussies from anywhere from $5,000 to $10,000+?
Would be very interested in hearing people's opinions.
2. Does parameter values of the system, have different fixed values (i.e. optimised) for different members of the constituent list ? THEY SHOULD ALL BE THE SAME. (Sorry for being loud).
Cannot resist a Simpson's quote here. The one when Homer attends a "Million$ for Nothing" seminar and the dodgy presenter confides:
"First, let me assure you that this is not one of those shady pyramid schemes you've been hearing about. No sir. Our model is the trapezoid!"
There's no such thing as a profitable system. That's a myth perpetrated by the spruikers, charlatans and outright predatory deceivers that sell them to the uneducated and unwary. Rules have to be changed, systems adapted to changing market conditions. Sometimes this works, sometimes that. And sometimes both, or neither. It's the trader that makes the money.
The quote from Kam above is very true. Most system aren't traded by the marketeers themselves either, that's always a telling one.
The 'worst' for it is the forex market. An almost infinite amount of commercial systems are for sale and very few (perhaps one or two) actually work in the long term. They prey on the Homer quote (also above).
The checklist for any system is:
1. Historical testing
2. Long term independently verified live forward trading
3. Vendor uses system on their own money
Without a tick in all those categories it is not even worthwhile investigating.
As for 'why sell it'? Well, as a commercial forex system seller maybe I can answer that. Honestly - it is money.
Not only money, but in forex the volume in the market is so vast that having many users trade a system does not influence or move the market. This allows the product to remain profitable for us, while also allowing a second stream of income.
For many others, it is simply marketing a dream - unlikely to become a reality. So be very careful and do a lot of checking before stumping out for a system, and even more investigation before putting your hard earnt at risk trading it.
See there are good blokes out there!
Truth is that at the time of developing it I had no idea that it was or would be "That" good!
I only traded 6 of the 7 yrs.
Best of all it was a great learning experience and dissected by more people than I see in a week!
That gave me confidence a lot of curley questions and a wealth of knowledge Id not have experienced had I not made it public.
The university of hard knocks educated me well in this instance.
Its part of Radges Latest book.
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