If a system is profitable why would they need to sell it?

[deedeeramone]

Cannot resist a Simpson's quote here. The one when Homer attends a "Million$ for Nothing" seminar and the dodgy presenter confides:

"First, let me assure you that this is not one of those shady pyramid schemes you've been hearing about. No sir. Our model is the trapezoid!"

 

[BennoBrisbane]

Also I would point out that to some people risking $10K on a black box is not a lot and so long as they get nice binders and someone to talk to and a regular meeting to attend they are happy. Even with Aussie Robs System you have to paper trade for a few months first and this is to just prove to you that it can work. Needless to say if you have any sales inclination then you end up becoming a sales affiliate.

 

[kam75]

There's no such thing as a profitable system. That's a myth perpetrated by the spruikers, charlatans and outright predatory deceivers that sell them to the uneducated and unwary. Rules have to be changed, systems adapted to changing market conditions. Sometimes this works, sometimes that. And sometimes both, or neither. It's the trader that makes the money.

 

[James_w]

I see this quote a lot, particularly in regard to those flogging black box systems for many thousands of dollars.

Is this essentially a truism?

If a black box system could generate consistent profits, why would it need to be sold? Why wouldn't the developers make their fortunes by simply trading the system themselves?

Selling something to a lot of people takes a lot of energy and money. Seminars need to be arranged. Venues need to be booked. Salesmen need to be employed. The essential infrastructure of a business needs to be set up: office, P.O. Box, phone, website, and so on, and so on...

Has anyone here actually made consistent profits from following entry/exit signals from a black box system or are they all basically rubbish? If they are, why hasn't ASIC cracked down on the spruikers selling these black box systems to ordinary Aussies from anywhere from $5,000 to $10,000+?

Would be very interested in hearing people's opinions.

Youtube has alot of learning materials free of charge never have bought any systems always traded using my own stragety most signal services plans etc are rubbish some work okay but you need to twist them to suit your own needs

 

[weird]

Forgot about this thread, and also kam75 clenched 2 testicle post, which I believe near that post, his domain name was available for sale.

They are not all bogus I believe when it comes to sellers, you do need to ask questions ... a few but this is not an exhaustive list,

1. What universe and time frame has the system been backtested on ?
2. Does parameter values of the system, have different fixed values (i.e. optimised) for different members of the constituent list ? THEY SHOULD ALL BE THE SAME. (Sorry for being loud).
3. Does the system have any hardcoded avoid this date, based on flimsy reasons ?
4. Related to the above, has any optimisation been performed ? What were they ?
5. Code should be fully disclosed ... I know of one system reseller , i.e. www.sharefinder.com.au , Gary Stone, where the code is hidden except description of the system, but have respect for and believe he uses solid principles.
6. add to the list.

But as I mentioned earlier , I don't think they are all dodgy (actually I wane on only a couple out of a hundred or more) , but buyer beware, and ask alot of questions.

I think for most reading this post, look for those that get good reviews on this forum, avoid those that are offering courses but don't have any reviews or positive reviews, and be prepared to spend time, alot of time developing skills and learning to ask the right questions in your new endeavour.

After that said, I would exploit the internet, for newbies, to find those which are respected ...

 

[gav]

2. Does parameter values of the system, have different fixed values (i.e. optimised) for different members of the constituent list ? THEY SHOULD ALL BE THE SAME. (Sorry for being loud).

Hi Weird,

Just trying to clarify what you mean by this. I assume you mean the rules for the system remain the same no matter what is traded? (eg. BHP is not traded with a different set of rules to RIO)

Cheers Gav.

 

[weird]

yup, if selling a system which is sold to work across different instruments without individual optimisation.

While the past may not work in the future ... you are chewing at one extreme end of that argument by optimising for individual instruments.

I was going to make an additional comment to that, regards to a MR system I know of, which really is not an exception, but can't really compare it to a BHP/RIO example.

 

[Trend Hunter]

What an interesting thread.

Over the years I have spent thousands of dollars educating myself through various courses and education programs, to improve my trading.
Its fair to say some of programs I have completed didn't meet their promises or my expectations, but on the other hand some were true to their word and far exceeded my expectations.

Believe it or not there are good people out there, who do want to help other traders, and are selling good products/programs that do work. It is Ok to be skeptical of some products but dont be cynical.

It is important to realize that as a trader your education should be view as being continuous, as I like to say "its better to be green and growing than ripe and rotting". You can either pay to gain that knowledge upfront, or eventually pay for it in the markets through not having a complete Trading Plan and proven Entry and Exit system.

So my advice to people wanting to buy a product or program:
1. Know what it is you actually what to learn. (Some programs/products specialize in different areas, building trading plans, options strategies, directional trading, reading the overall markets, trader psychology, money management, candlesticks etc).
2. Ask & understand what you will learn in the product/program.
3. Do they stand behind their product (some kind of money back guarantee, 30 days???).
4. Find yourself a mentor/s who is already successful in their own right, who you respect and will teach you how to be successful.

Anyways hope this helps,
Cade

 

[Aleksey]

Great post Trend Hunter, well done. I believe software should HELP you trade but not make trading decisions for you.

 

[adobee]

If someone wanted to be come a broker etc.. Is there not a course which can be completed for education which is not a system but rather a course at tafe or uni or a college ?

 

[WaveSurfer]

Cannot resist a Simpson's quote here. The one when Homer attends a "Million$ for Nothing" seminar and the dodgy presenter confides:

"First, let me assure you that this is not one of those shady pyramid schemes you've been hearing about. No sir. Our model is the trapezoid!"

lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StmZtViuJXg

 

[tech/a]

There's no such thing as a profitable system. That's a myth perpetrated by the spruikers, charlatans and outright predatory deceivers that sell them to the uneducated and unwary. Rules have to be changed, systems adapted to changing market conditions. Sometimes this works, sometimes that. And sometimes both, or neither. It's the trader that makes the money.

This is classic and should be immortalized in stone.

 

[TulipFX]

The quote from Kam above is very true. Most system aren't traded by the marketeers themselves either, that's always a telling one.

The 'worst' for it is the forex market. An almost infinite amount of commercial systems are for sale and very few (perhaps one or two) actually work in the long term. They prey on the Homer quote (also above).

The checklist for any system is:

1. Historical testing
2. Long term independently verified live forward trading
3. Vendor uses system on their own money

Without a tick in all those categories it is not even worthwhile investigating.

As for 'why sell it'? Well, as a commercial forex system seller maybe I can answer that. Honestly - it is money.

Not only money, but in forex the volume in the market is so vast that having many users trade a system does not influence or move the market. This allows the product to remain profitable for us, while also allowing a second stream of income.

For many others, it is simply marketing a dream - unlikely to become a reality. So be very careful and do a lot of checking before stumping out for a system, and even more investigation before putting your hard earnt at risk trading it.

 

[tech/a]

The quote from Kam above is very true. Most system aren't traded by the marketeers themselves either, that's always a telling one.

The 'worst' for it is the forex market. An almost infinite amount of commercial systems are for sale and very few (perhaps one or two) actually work in the long term. They prey on the Homer quote (also above).

The checklist for any system is:

1. Historical testing
2. Long term independently verified live forward trading
3. Vendor uses system on their own money

Without a tick in all those categories it is not even worthwhile investigating.

As for 'why sell it'? Well, as a commercial forex system seller maybe I can answer that. Honestly - it is money.

Not only money, but in forex the volume in the market is so vast that having many users trade a system does not influence or move the market. This allows the product to remain profitable for us, while also allowing a second stream of income.

For many others, it is simply marketing a dream - unlikely to become a reality. So be very careful and do a lot of checking before stumping out for a system, and even more investigation before putting your hard earnt at risk trading it.

Mine ticks all the boxes (although its a Stock system) Forward traded it live for 7 yrs.
The complete history is still available to read on the nett.

I gave it away and still do!!

I actually pulled funds to cash in 2007 which is also documented on line (Here on ASF and on the forum with the live record of Techtrader) as I saw the Crash coming and didn want to risk open profit---job done!

Had I ridden out the drawdown I would have made new equity highs---even so happy with my decision ---others who use it still trade it. I will again as well----

 

[TulipFX]

See there are good blokes out there!

 

[tech/a]

See there are good blokes out there!

Truth is that at the time of developing it I had no idea that it was or would be "That" good!
I only traded 6 of the 7 yrs.
Best of all it was a great learning experience and dissected by more people than I see in a week!
That gave me confidence a lot of curley questions and a wealth of knowledge Id not have experienced had I not made it public.

The university of hard knocks educated me well in this instance.
Its part of Radges Latest book.

 

[pavilion103]

Truth is that at the time of developing it I had no idea that it was or would be "That" good!
I only traded 6 of the 7 yrs.
Best of all it was a great learning experience and dissected by more people than I see in a week!
That gave me confidence a lot of curley questions and a wealth of knowledge Id not have experienced had I not made it public.

The university of hard knocks educated me well in this instance.
Its part of Radges Latest book.

View attachment 46339

I've been waiting excitedly for this...

Just ordered my copy this morning. Looking forward to reading it!

 

[cudderbean]

Old news but it looks like Aussie Rob's system is in trouble after investigation by ASIC

http://www.goldcoast.com.au/article/2012/01/06/379661_gold-coast-business.html

Buyers of the scheme may be entitled to refunds.