JBN
I think you are right about the moly being the saviour- V prices will come down alot once new iron ore producers with bonus ferrovanadium (eg AXO, MXR) ramp up and pure vanadium plays (eg WVL) will suffer.
While Julia Creek has 185 years of total current world demand of V at current JORC (so perhaps twice or 10 times that if this resouce gets explored further), it only has 3 years of total current world moly demand, so I don't think you should worry about any other moly play you have an interest in, plenty of room for more moly producers.
If IRC gets Julia Creek operational, it could well monopolise the current 29% of vanadium consumption met by primary production (29% figure from bottom of Eroz report Young_Trader posted 7th Apr08
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10484), but I can't see it monopolising the entire V market (with attendant pricing power) as I read some posters somewhere saying, there's just too much production where the V is just the icing on the cake.
JBN you mentioned Ruane/IRC is "going to have to work hard on developing the market"- with Julia Creek flooring the V price, the V market will grow (faster than otherwise) wherever V can substituted in for like metals. I'm sure once Julia Creek starts tangibly ramping up to a really big production this certainty of lowered price will make the rounds of steelmakers worldwide in short order. Given the hit they are taking on iron ore prices now and into the forseeable future they will be very keen to hear any improvement in their inputs' terms of trade.
I myself am less worried about sales as a few more localised niggles- like the distractions to Dr Ruane of starting up Lake Disappointment for RWD, and now taking over RER. This is a guy in his 60's or near abouts (I'm in my 30's, and just reading about all that he is doing makes me tired), and he doesn't have a staff surrounding him of the size that say Tom Albanese or Marius Kloppers have (fair enough though, Rio/BHP have got hundreds times the number of projects). I don't doubt Dr Ruane's ability to create a beneficiation process for Julia Creek given the magic he has weaved on the White Range gold tailings, I'd just prefer he didn't have so many irons in the fire, there's only so many hours in a day. I do understand why he is doing it, that RWD/RER will pay for IRC till the big capex is needed, just thought I'd highlight that while we all agree Dr Ruane is a dynamo, we are placing our bets to quite an extent on him instead of on a broader company.
But the main thing I am worried about is Rio pegging the areas surrounding IRC's Julia Creek property. If Dr Ruane wasn't able to keep this venture quiet enough to grab all the land that might contain this monster V deposit, if Rio find say even 20% of IRC's size in the areas surrounding IRC's tenements (20% of 185 years = 37 years total world current consumption, or 100+ years of current primary V production beyond the iron ore miners that have V as gravy), then the proprietary-technology patents will be the make or break- and a $1 trillion resource will likely motivate Rio to buy in some major metallurgist talent (and the best patent attorneys to argue that Rio's patents are "nothing like IRC's"). That was a long sentence (sorry). Also apologies for referring to vanadium first as icing then as gravy.
I believe Dr Ruane had even said he liked the idea of being bought out by Xtrata. I originally did not like the idea of this, I hate the thought of something being stolen from under me by a bully (the big end of town) before it could really shine, then they get all the shine. I am to the point of being resigned to this.
Suffice to say, I am in, got a decent helping a few weeks back. Just thought I'd throw up a few musings to think through the next few moves ahead (like I seem to never be able to do properly in chess, and the US Defence Dept seemed unable to do with Iraq in 2003).