HRZ - Horizon Minerals

[YOUNG_TRADER]

WIPZ a simple search of the posts should have given you that info but I'll post it anyway

IRC have 8-9m shares (note some ie 1.5m are 20c options but given the current price I'd say treat em as shares given the mininmal 20c conversion cost)

= $16m - $18m in NTA from RWD alone = around 20c NTA from RWD holding alone

 

[wipz]

WIPZ a simple search of the posts should have given you that info but I'll post it anyway

IRC have 8-9m shares (note some ie 1.5m are 20c options but given the current price I'd say treat em as shares given the mininmal 20c conversion cost)

= $16m - $18m in NTA from RWD alone = around 20c NTA from RWD holding alone

Thanks YT, I know I am a lazy bugger =]
So thats about 16.6% ownership (assuming 54mil RWD shares on issue).

 

[Gekko]

WIPZ a simple search of the posts should have given you that info but I'll post it anyway

IRC have 8-9m shares (note some ie 1.5m are 20c options but given the current price I'd say treat em as shares given the mininmal 20c conversion cost)

= $16m - $18m in NTA from RWD alone = around 20c NTA from RWD holding alone

YT, the market hears you. irc at a closing high today. Like many here, i bought off your research and am up substantaily (40%+) only 2-3 weeks later. If only the markets would listen to me

 

[Sean K]

Hey Kenna looks like a breakout to me above 46c

May need to do a bit more volume and hold this level but the sell side is almost non-existant

Its so good to see my faith in IRC being heavily undervalued vindicated, I see the re-rating a combination of people realising the Multi Trillion $ resource as well as RWD's NTA rising

The big break was back at 30. Would have been good to be on it back then. hehe.

And yes, the previous day was the break from that little pennant thingy. Now has all time highs to deal with at .48, isn ´t it? Probably some resistance here as mentioned a bit back.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey Kenna, whats even more amazing is how long the stock sat around 22c-24c, so much value but the mkt was blind to it, sure enough my faith of a re-rating is being rewarded

Currently at 49c, slow and steady gains with this, the good way I say

 

[michael_selway]

Hey Kenna, whats even more amazing is how long the stock sat around 22c-24c, so much value but the mkt was blind to it, sure enough my faith of a re-rating is being rewarded

Currently at 49c, slow and steady gains with this, the good way I say

Hm how much do you think IRC shoudlbe worth?

As for IRC having IGV of $1.5 trillion for Vanadium it's worth keeping this in mind;

"Historically the price of Vanadium has followed a spike-crash-shakeout pattern, with long periods of depressed prices followed by brief price spikes. Demand is expected to rise until 2010. Currently at about 100 000t/pa"

thx

MS

 

[d_crome]

A bit of a sidelines perspective here (as I've been watching with interest since the low 30's but never entered) - would some agree with the statement that due to it's heavy gearing into RWD, IRC has risen in value simply by association and value increase of ANOTHER stock rather than simply the worth of IRC as it's own entity?

The reason I ask is that if RWD takes a hit (like it did yesturday) how well do many of you think IRC will be able to stand upon it's own merrits?

I'm curious and perplexed by Vanadium, certainly I understand it's a resource, and that IRC may be sitting on a very large stockpile of it - but question is really just HOW much of a demand exists for it? I don't recall many infrastructure projects requiring Vanadium - high rise towers, light rail, capital works etc (where alot of the boom in current resource demand has been created).

Sure I understand it has uses - but are these uses enough to demand a premium for this stock?

Food for thought as it were - now if somebody would show me a stock that creates WATER, then I think we're onto the next winner....

Again - DYOR as I'm a self proclaimed village idiot

 

[bvbfan]

Gekko, did you use to frequent Chillman years ago?

Hi IRC'ers
Just been looking at other Moly plays, already have a holding in MOL and this came up in my searching. Actually came up a while ago but been slack doing my DD on it.
I'm liking what I've read and will dig around some more.

 

[Sean K]

Now a new one seems to be formed on a longer term view. Projection is the length of the pole which is .52 ish give or take a cent depending on where you think the base of the pole is and where the break up occurs, if it does. Yesterday's hammer indicated outstanding support IMO.

.52 target hit and it pulled back immediately. LOL. Who says this stuff doesn ´t work?

Now looking for some support to build possibly between 43-45 for more clues as to where next. Having doubled in a month, may be time to take stock.

 

[J.B.Nimble]

At a time when IRC have expressed their intent to sell off the White Range tenements "in view of it's major commitments to the Julia Creek Vanadium -Molybdenum project" they seem to be more than a bit distracted with acquiring a chunk of RER and getting board representation. Julia Creek, pretty exciting - RER, ho hum...

Any theories?

 

[Sean K]

At a time when IRC have expressed their intent to sell off the White Range tenements "in view of it's major commitments to the Julia Creek Vanadium -Molybdenum project" they seem to be more than a bit distracted with acquiring a chunk of RER and getting board representation. Julia Creek, pretty exciting - RER, ho hum...

Any theories?

Ruane must see some value in RER obviously. Have you had a good look at their current oz au JORC ´d to their MC. It is the lowest in the market, that I can find. Holding some.

Now looking for some support to build possibly between 43-45 for more clues as to where next. Having doubled in a month, may be time to take stock.

Consolidated nicely around these levels, although not happy with the few intraday sell offs. Still some profit taking going on during any spikes, with stale hands and traders looking for an exit. Or smart players....

Damn, I wish he ´d release some good news on JCs economic viability.

 

[jbowman101]

Hey guys,

General query on what people’s opinions are on the direction of this company?

Quite honestly I haven’t done my research into the company yet. I have been meaning too, but sort for time at the moment. From what I’ve gathered IRC is still running feasibility studies and figuring out a way to extract V at an affordable cost… am I on the right trail?

Cheers

James

 

[Sean K]

Hey guys,

General query on what people’s opinions are on the direction of this company?

Quite honestly I haven’t done my research into the company yet. I have been meaning too, but sort for time at the moment. From what I’ve gathered IRC is still running feasibility studies and figuring out a way to extract V at an affordable cost… am I on the right trail?

Cheers

James

If you haven ´t, you really need to read through the thread from a couple of months ago, then go to their ASX announcements and read their last 3 quarterlys and 2 annual reports, plus any update on JC. Then report back to us on what you think. Cheers, kennas

 

[J.B.Nimble]

Damn, I wish he ´d release some good news on JCs economic viability.

By MR's usual restrained style the last quarterly is almost equivalent to shouting from the rooftops.

"...the Company believes it has succeeded in developing relatively simple (proprietary) technology which will economically extract the metal values (V, Mo,Ni,Cu) from Julia Creek (oxidised) mineralisation...​

"...The constant aim of the metallurgical testwork conducted has been to establish the project in the lowest quartile of Vanadium and Molybdenum producers in the cost sense. The Company is confident it can now achieve this goal. Intermin is now seeking offtake agreements for Vanadium and Molybdenum output from the project."​

It feels like we're almost there... Offtake agreements suggests a high level of confidence. Some numbers on their projected costs would be nice but I don't think MR feels inclined to share... It remains to be seen whether they have managed to shut the door on any me-too explorer setting up shop on an adjoining tenement. MR must be smarting at the thought of STB sticking a straw in the other end of Lake Disappointment when RWD have done all the hard work... The comment that they are "preparing Patent Applications to protect the Intellectual Property established" reassures that they have an alternate method to protect their patch for some time.

I feel the biggest risk is Vanadium pricing. Moly looks strong going forward but V feels a bit vulnerable. It doesn't take too many projects to redress a supply/demand imbalance in a niche metal and there are a fair number in development. Their lowest quartile cost goal and the Moly co-product should see them as a survivor in the event of a price shakeout. Last November's investor presentation gives a useful overview of the size of the V and Mo markets and dangles the prospect of V substituting for Ni in stainless alloys - just the sort of thing the Chinese market enjoys (try buying 304 stainless here and the contractor will come back with a low Cr, high Ti alloy that seems to work at a price that is right...). Going to have to work hard on developing the market, hence my concern about the RER distraction...

It is so hard to put a value on this project. The in ground value is vast to the point of being almost meaningless. As they point out in the 07 annual report, just 3 million T a year from their multi billion T resource could yield 10,000T V2O5 and 1000 T of MoO3 and make them a globally significant player. There will be plenty of sleep lost as they try to decide on an optimal output scale. Size could be anything. Until they show their hand with some cost and output numbers, I have decided to treat Intermin as potentially equivalent to a WVL + MOL package deal - not very scientific but I'm open to alternative suggestions...

 

[Sean K]

By MR's usual restrained style the last quarterly is almost equivalent to shouting from the rooftops.

................

Until they show their hand with some cost and output numbers, I have decided to treat Intermin as potentially equivalent to a WVL + MOL package deal - not very scientific but I'm open to alternative suggestions...

Nice post JBN, thanks for the input. I didn ´t know about MR until I started looking at IRC, RER and RWD. (Cheers YT) Interesting character who seems to have succeeded somewhat with his career. Doing OK now I imagine.

Agree with the quarterly comments, it looks like he ´s telegraphing something there, but until the facts are on the table, it`s slightly spec.

And agree with the size factor and other parties joining the queue to cash in, however, it seems the BRIC phenomenon may be driving demand greater for some time, even though the US centric global economic driver hyper bears may suggest that if the US falls over we all fall over. Key with most potential producers going forward could be grades but if this so called propriatary technology is sound, then the base grades may be mitigated somewhat.

I still want to see some figures on this Tardas that he is developing to transport the takeaway grades to gourmet.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Kenna I hope MR gets control of RER,

Thye have alot of gold but not much knowledge on how to turn that into $'s and their latest poison pill placement is ****ing disgusting (its such an obvious blocking move)

MR is a proven gold operator whith White Range under his belt, he can make a few $mill form a very small outlay at white range just think what he could do with RER

 

[J.B.Nimble]

...Key with most potential producers going forward could be grades but if this so called propriatary technology is sound, then the base grades may be mitigated somewhat.

I still want to see some figures on this Tardas that he is developing to transport the takeaway grades to gourmet.

At first the grades were a real turn off for me, but they have overcome that concern. The grade improvement is a simple sizing exercise. Its a soft ore with the goodies concentrated in the minus 30 micron fraction. It seems that this is sufficient to upgrade the Coquina oxide to very useful grades -1.2% V2O5 and 1100g/t MoO3.

The propietary technology seems to be either in the leaching or the recovery process. It is a warm (<50degree C) leach so there could be some energy concerns but, hey, there's oil in that shale isn't there? Got to be some way to exploit that...

The thought that keeps going through my mind is that with the size of their resource and their Q1 cost target they could make a real mess of the market for the more marginal players out there... I'm keeping a close eye on progress with my favourite moly play...

As for the US tanking, I'm not overly concerned. It has barely registered here in China. If anything the pace of development feels like it is accelerating. I run a little "tower cranes spotted on the way to work" index. Currently sitting at about 62 depending on the pollution haze and the after effects of Chinese hospitality the night before. Slow down, what slow down...?

And I think both you and YT are correct - MR does see value in RER. Let's face it he finds it where others have yet to look, and the history at White Range performance bodes well for what he could do if he can get a degree of control... It still feels like a bit of a distraction from the main event but I'll trust his judgement.

 

[Dr Zaius]

JBN
I think you are right about the moly being the saviour- V prices will come down alot once new iron ore producers with bonus ferrovanadium (eg AXO, MXR) ramp up and pure vanadium plays (eg WVL) will suffer.

While Julia Creek has 185 years of total current world demand of V at current JORC (so perhaps twice or 10 times that if this resouce gets explored further), it only has 3 years of total current world moly demand, so I don't think you should worry about any other moly play you have an interest in, plenty of room for more moly producers.

If IRC gets Julia Creek operational, it could well monopolise the current 29% of vanadium consumption met by primary production (29% figure from bottom of Eroz report Young_Trader posted 7th Apr08 https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10484), but I can't see it monopolising the entire V market (with attendant pricing power) as I read some posters somewhere saying, there's just too much production where the V is just the icing on the cake.

JBN you mentioned Ruane/IRC is "going to have to work hard on developing the market"- with Julia Creek flooring the V price, the V market will grow (faster than otherwise) wherever V can substituted in for like metals. I'm sure once Julia Creek starts tangibly ramping up to a really big production this certainty of lowered price will make the rounds of steelmakers worldwide in short order. Given the hit they are taking on iron ore prices now and into the forseeable future they will be very keen to hear any improvement in their inputs' terms of trade.

I myself am less worried about sales as a few more localised niggles- like the distractions to Dr Ruane of starting up Lake Disappointment for RWD, and now taking over RER. This is a guy in his 60's or near abouts (I'm in my 30's, and just reading about all that he is doing makes me tired), and he doesn't have a staff surrounding him of the size that say Tom Albanese or Marius Kloppers have (fair enough though, Rio/BHP have got hundreds times the number of projects). I don't doubt Dr Ruane's ability to create a beneficiation process for Julia Creek given the magic he has weaved on the White Range gold tailings, I'd just prefer he didn't have so many irons in the fire, there's only so many hours in a day. I do understand why he is doing it, that RWD/RER will pay for IRC till the big capex is needed, just thought I'd highlight that while we all agree Dr Ruane is a dynamo, we are placing our bets to quite an extent on him instead of on a broader company.

But the main thing I am worried about is Rio pegging the areas surrounding IRC's Julia Creek property. If Dr Ruane wasn't able to keep this venture quiet enough to grab all the land that might contain this monster V deposit, if Rio find say even 20% of IRC's size in the areas surrounding IRC's tenements (20% of 185 years = 37 years total world current consumption, or 100+ years of current primary V production beyond the iron ore miners that have V as gravy), then the proprietary-technology patents will be the make or break- and a $1 trillion resource will likely motivate Rio to buy in some major metallurgist talent (and the best patent attorneys to argue that Rio's patents are "nothing like IRC's"). That was a long sentence (sorry). Also apologies for referring to vanadium first as icing then as gravy.

I believe Dr Ruane had even said he liked the idea of being bought out by Xtrata. I originally did not like the idea of this, I hate the thought of something being stolen from under me by a bully (the big end of town) before it could really shine, then they get all the shine. I am to the point of being resigned to this.

Suffice to say, I am in, got a decent helping a few weeks back. Just thought I'd throw up a few musings to think through the next few moves ahead (like I seem to never be able to do properly in chess, and the US Defence Dept seemed unable to do with Iraq in 2003).

 

[jbowman101]

seems the confidence has fled this stock recently. hopefully this will turn around soon....

opinions .... ?

 

[Sean K]

seems the confidence has fled this stock recently. hopefully this will turn around soon....

opinions .... ?

Yes, No news is not necessarily good news.

They are due to report some drilling from JC. Actually, it's overdue.

From the last Quarterly.

During the March 2008 quarter, the Company completed a further 2,752 metre aircore drilling programme as a confirmation of resource definition in areas of higher grades and most favourable mining parameters. Samples have been submitted for analysis but results are not expected until mid May.

Now, we need some news on the patent and testwork...

Despite these difficulties, the Company believes it has succeeded in developing relatively simple (proprietary) technology which will economically extract the metal values (V, Mo, Ni, Cu) from Julia Creek (oxidized) mineralisation.

The Company is currently preparing Patent Applications to protect the Intellectual Property established and proceeding with engineering studies to refine the process involved and associated operating costs. The constant aim of the metallurgical testwork conducted has been to establish the project in the lowest quartile of Vanadium and Molybdenum producers in the cost sense.

The Company is confident it can now achieve this goal. Intermin is now seeking offtake agreements for Vanadium and Molybdenum output from the project.

I think some good news in relation to these issues, may put it back in a positive light.