HRZ - Horizon Minerals

[smurfette]

Hi Young Trader,
You've got my attention again. Ive been interstate, and so have missed most of the last week, but am curious as to how a company with a resource of this size can be only capped at this market cap. Is the resource too deep or is there a similar problem.

Smurfette

 

[JTLP]

Hi Young Trader,
You've got my attention again. Ive been interstate, and so have missed most of the last week, but am curious as to how a company with a resource of this size can be only capped at this market cap. Is the resource too deep or is there a similar problem.

Smurfette

Maybe it's because the capex is only $2M....

***THE ABOVE IS A JOKE***

Smurfette, I think that it has been noted that the reason for the market cap is the ability to extract the resource economically. The chem eng managed to turn tailings into profits so maybe people are hedging there bets and waiting for him to say "I CAN TURN WATER IN WINE" (i.e. I can successfully extract this lower grade V2O5 with a low capex and big $$$ profit).

JTLP

 

[arae]

This from their December 2007 quarterly;

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080131/pdf/3176l9vrp74lxq.pdf

On extracting the resource;

"The company has made excellent progress in the last 12 months, developing propriety technology which it believes will achieve this goal"

and an extra re-assruance on their thoughts for success;

"The Directors of Intermin are confident that the Julia Creek vanadium/Molybdenum project has potential to generate significant future income for Intermin and its shareholders"

Combine this with the as mentioned continuous 'at market' buy from the highly qualified and already proven Director and it leads to a very positive vibe.

 

[kransky]

Yes, this puppy just needs an ann saying scoping study has been awarded to company ABC... should send the MC up!

That will show the market that their confidence in their process is good enough to justify the costs of moving forward..

I hold and wait

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey guys,

Smurfette your guess is as god as mine, as JTLP has corrctly stated though, the fact that Michael turned waste ore into profits somewhat proves his ability as a chemical engineer and thus his ability to make Julia Creek work

Its a matter of probability really, I have already shown that Julia Creek will have an I.G.V. of around $950Billion - over $1.5 Trillion so I'd say an NPV (10% of that I.G.V.) ie $95Billion - $150Billion might be acheivable

So the question is what probability would you attach to Julia Creeks success?

10%? well a 10% chance of success = discounting the potential NPV by 90% = $9.5Billion - $15Billion

1%? well a 1% chance of success = discounting the potential NPV by 99% = $950 Million - $1.5Billion

0.1%? well a 0.1% chance of success = discounting the potential NPV by 99.9% = $95 Million - $150Million


I am personally happy to discount the project by 99.9% ie giving it a 0.1% chance of success that still to me says IRC should be worth $1

But lets say we need a scoping study and pilot plant first etc etc to be really conservative, well still I'd say IRC should be capped at $50m for Julia Creek potential = 54c

Then IRC also has 20c-25c in NTA

Food for thought

Whats very intersting is comparing IRC's Moly grades to that of the next big ASX Moly producer MOL

MOL JORC 650Mt's@ 450g/t Mo + Cu and Ag credits (low) [Mkt Cap 100m Shares+options @$2.80 = $280m
vs
IRC's JORC 4898Mt's @ 0.37%V2O5 +310g/t Mo [Mkt Cap 92m shares @ 30c = $28.5m]

Anyway I have found another error in my calculations, if the Moly price is $35/lb and there are 2.25 lbs in a kg, then in fact the price of MOL per kg = $78.75

So using a Moly price of $75kg and half the current Vanadium price so $40kg not $80kg the Gross Value of Julia Creek is as follows

High Grade
5 Billion tonnes @ 0.37% V = 18.5M Tonnes @ $40k/t ($40kg) = $750Billion

5 Billion tonnes @ 310g/t Mo = 1.55M Tonnes @ $75k/t ($75/kg) = $115Billion


Total In Ground Value = $865Billion USD = $950Billion AUD

Still ridiculously large and thats using a more conservative V price thats half the current

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Pretty good breakout. Maybe outstanding. Breaking through more resistance at 35 makes it I think, along with the great volume.

Obviously not just ASF buying. Looked to be chased yesterday with the sell side very thin. Disappeared at one point I think.

Nice work LN!

Hey Kenna, change in polarity coming into play it looks like with 35c now acting as support with strong support just below at around 30c

Also Smurfette the resource is not "too deep" its actually flat lying and near surface (see the 2nd pic)

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hmmmm that last post of mine with the chart isn't too clear, damn it this chart came up small as well!!!!!!!!!

Well here's the chart again as at end of day, shows IRC so far is respecting the 35c level (all be it ofr a brief dip below) volume has been good ok so far, about 1.6m since Thursday = 1.6m over 3 trading days or avg of 500k a day

Chartists what ya reckon going forwrd?

 

[jtb]

...what ya reckon going forwrd?

Beautiful descending triangle break @ 25c bro', wish I'd seen it

Recent long tails on the daily show your fans are keen, if nothing else:

Close above 40c would be nice, stop @ 34c.

Gap on the daily has me set with a falling buy- as always, intriguing call and will try to watch with interest

Cheers
J

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey JTB, is that a weekly chart your using?

Well looks like IRC has bounced off the 35c line,

There's so many buyers waiting just below 35c, tight arses, just pay up lol

Sell depth looks pretty thin too,

Anwway lets see what happens, one things for sure, alot of people will now be watching the development of IRC, be interesting in 12months to see were the company's at and also to look back

 

[smurfette]

Hey YT,
I am one of those so called "tight arses" waiting in the line to buy I may move up later if I can't get my price

Smurfette

p.s. leave our bums out of it next time.

 

[smurfette]

Oh drat, looks like I'll have to really pay up now, last time I looked there weren't so many buys. Ive got to watch closer.:crap:

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

JTLP it finished up at 39c with a bit of volume going through today, what would a close above 40c signal? a breakout or some continuation of a pattern????

Thanks in advance


p.s. Smurfette if your nice to me, maybe this Papa Smurf will fling a few shares your way :

 

[Sean K]

Hey Kenna, change in polarity coming into play it looks like with 35c now acting as support with strong support just below at around 30c

Hey LN! Yep, 35 firmed up as ok support in the short term. A Pole and Pennant starting to form up here. A break to the upside gives a target of around 50 cents. Will probably find some resistance at all time highs just above 45 though. Great volume confirming strong break out.

 

[Gekko]

Utter lack of sell volume today. Orders keep moving up from what ive briefly seen. Kennas, you made need to do a new chart tonight.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

lol looks like the ASX thinks IRC is moving up to hard and has issued them with a please explain,

Its been a gradual move up over the past wekk or two so Im actually surprised that ASX gave them a ticket for speeding

Anyway they explained the movement/re-rating accurately, Julia Creek getting closer to achieving a production scenario and RWD holdings going to the moon

 

[smurfette]

Hi YT,
I looked at the charts of RWD and IRC after todays announcement. I just realised that since February RWD has risen over 300% where as IRC has risen around only 25-30%. Given the size of the RWD holding that IRC has should the IRC price have risen a lot more based on this alone?

Mind you it's the size of the Vanadium project that really takes my fancy.

Smurfette

PS. Bought in today at 40.5 cents. Wish that I didn't wait so long

 

[JTLP]

JTLP it finished up at 39c with a bit of volume going through today, what would a close above 40c signal? a breakout or some continuation of a pattern????

Thanks in advance


p.s. Smurfette if your nice to me, maybe this Papa Smurf will fling a few shares your way :

Well I think you mean JTB cause my tech skillzzzz are not too l33t.

Am still yet to taste the juices of IRC...time will tell

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

JTB JTLP hmmm brothers? lol

Sorry about the confusion

Smurfette as I have always said, IRC's holding in RWD just goes towards the NTA which provides a safety net should things go pear shaped, but if Julia Creek gets going 10c here 20c there will be irrelevant IMO

The interesting times are just around the corner when a Pilot Plant gets up and running

 

[adamim1]

I'm trying to buy some at the moment. Sitting at 39c, I've put an offer of 35c, it will be interesting to see how it turns out.

 

[jtb]

JTB JTLP hmmm brothers? lol

Wouldn't hazard a guess at a target mate but resumption of the trend would bode well.
Smacked 30c and then 34c which is a good look imo.
Friday arvo test coming i imagine