HRZ - Horizon Minerals

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Plenty of other companies would have those kind of tonnages up in lights. That and the use of a lot of jargon says to me that these guys seem to be trying to keep a lid on things for the time being

Hey Datsun,

Thats the impression I got speaking to Michael,

He made it clear that he wanted to build a major mining project ie Billions of Tonnes and until he perfected the flow sheet and patended the process he was gonna keep it under tight wraps,

I am amazed at the size of the deposit and its comparable grades to WVL and MOL

With Vanadium at $80 a kg and Moly at $35/lb the Gross Value of Julia Creek is as follows

High Grade
5 Billion tonnes @ 0.37% V = 18.5M Tonnes @ $80k/t ($80kg) = $1.5Trillion

5 Billion tonnes @ 310g/t Mo = 1.55M Tonnes @ $16k/t ($35/lb) = $24.8 Billion

Clearly the bulk of the In Ground Value is in the Vanadium, but $1.525 Trillion Dollars IGV and thats just the High Grade part is RIDICULOUS, is this Olympic Dam II :


The key is making the process work, but even if we heavily discount the value of the project and only allocate a 1% value of the I.G.V., thats still $15Billion in value

Right now I think the mkt is allocating a 0.00000001% Value to Julia Creek, I am checking my I.G.V. figures again, its kinda late and it wouldn't surprise me if I made a mistake

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I just tried to check my figures again,

Note I am only looking at the high grade portion as I think the low grade is well just too low,

Anyway each Tonne grades 0.37% V, so each Tonne contains 3.7kg's of Vanadium

@ last years avg price of $40/kg V each tonne is worth $148

@ current (very high) prices of $80/kg V each tonne is worth $296

5 Billion Tonnes = $740Billion @ $40kg V or $1.48 Trillion @ $80kg V

I'm with you Datsun, the company should be beating a drum, loud and clear,


I'm gonna do some research to see if Elephant Vanadium deposits exist like this all over the world, I mean why the hell is IRC so cheap???????

 

[doctorj]

II'm gonna do some research to see if Elephant Vanadium deposits exist like this all over the world, I mean why the hell is IRC so cheap???????

I'm not a metallurgist, but could it be that the cost of extracting the vandium is expensive? Or the composition of the ore makes the chemical process more difficult?

Just thinking outloud.

 

[Sean K]

With Vanadium at $80 a kg and Moly at $35/lb the Gross Value of Julia Creek is as follows

High Grade
5 Billion tonnes @ 0.37% V = 18.5M Tonnes @ $80k/t ($80kg) = $1.5Trillion

5 Billion tonnes @ 310g/t Mo = 1.55M Tonnes @ $16k/t ($35/lb) = $24.8 Billion

Figures look right to me YT. I can't understand why this has been overlooked. They need to bring out a nice little scoping study similar to what MAK did with Wonarah to make the market aware of it's viability, but as you say they need to get this patented technology thingy working before they can do that. Happy with the eod close over 30 resistance but still needs follow through and for it to be confirmed as support for a change in trend. Pretty positive though. $1.5 trillion! WTF!

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I'm not a metallurgist, but could it be that the cost of extracting the vandium is expensive? Or the composition of the ore makes the chemical process more difficult?

Just thinking outloud.

The chemical process perfection for these deposits is hard no doubt, ie it took WVL ages to perfect theirs, about 12months or so with further tweaking over the last 6months

Also attached below is an image of WVL's expected mining operation, it looks pretty full on, maybe IRC need a major like Noble to JV with them? I reckon that would be aneasy way to fast track everything

Also the actual deposit is a large flat pancake style deposit that is covered by maybe 10m's max of top soil so its not deep and thus should be very cost effcient to extract,

I'm sure within the 5Billion Tonnes IRC can find 100Mts thats really high grade stuff ie 0.5% V

 

[Gekko]

Hey Gekko,

The JORC at Julia Creek is actually 8 Billion Tonnes, theres a high grade component and a low grade component (see the pic)

re the grades, well the next major ASX vanadium producer to be is WVL and their avg grade is 0.46% V vs IRC's is 0.4% EQUIV (ie 0.37% + Moly credits)

WVL's JORC is 140Mt's@0.46% V [Mkt Cap 155m shares @ $2 = $310m]
vs
IRC's 4,898Mt's@0.4% V Equiv [Mkt Cap 92m shares @ 30c = $28.5m]

So grades shouldn't be a problem

Whats very intersting is comparing IRC's Moly grades to that of the next big ASX Moly producer MOL

MOL JORC 650Mt's@ 450g/t Mo + Cu and Ag credits (low) [Mkt Cap 100m Shares+options @$2.80 = $280m
vs
IRC's JORC 4898Mt's @ 0.37%V +310g/t Mo [Mkt Cap 92m shares @ 30c = $28.5m]

With Moly and Vanadium prices soaring I think IRC's Julia Creek could become a monster project in time and is certainly worth more than the few million EV its recieving currently once the NTA is take into account

I mean IRC has a 5 Billion Tonne JORC for the high grade area which is at surface and has grades just below that of WVL's Vanadium and MOL's Moly, what a monster

Thanks for the reply. Obviously, the numbers and comparisons are extraodinary. As said, the sinister part of me still partially thinks the company have kept the share price low to buy more. But arent i sinister
Did you have trouble buying?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Yeah buying wasn't easy, the stock is very tightly held and hence the sellers are few and far apart, but then I don't think we've seen any serious buying,

Most of the orders today have been for $10k ie no $30k - $50k buy orders .... yet

Anyhoo, looks like we have a breakout above 30c, 250k volume isn't huge, but add the 250k from yesterday and we've got 500k which is large for this stock

I think the mkt is yet to wake up and fully appreciate the potential size and value of Julia Creek

 

[refined silver]

D'oh!!!

After buying original parcels, then had a buy in for a few months at 21c.

Never got filled and when it was 22c last week or so considered upping the bid but didn't! Looks thats not gonna ever get filled now!

 

[Ruprect]

This one reminds me a lot of FWL - massive massive resource, looking at new technology to extract resource. And so tightly held that when a couple of serious buyers get in, the sp rockets.

Have held a small parcel here since late last year, but as always should have bought more!!

Im still struggling to get my head around the size of their resource! But it looks to be very real.

 

[Gekko]

This one reminds me a lot of FWL - massive massive resource, looking at new technology to extract resource. And so tightly held that when a couple of serious buyers get in, the sp rockets.

Have held a small parcel here since late last year, but as always should have bought more!!

Im still struggling to get my head around the size of their resource! But it looks to be very real.

Yeh, im struggling to get my head over the resource size too. Its amazing how some companies can just fly under the radar. But then again, look what happened on CDU. And as mentioned earlier, my sinister side says michael ruane was more then happy to accomadate the inactivty by buying millions more.

 

[roland]

IRC are nearly out of sellers - I don't think I have ever seen the seller side disappear completely ... is it possible?

 

[Datsun Disguise]

Hi Roland - sure it can happen - but then it's up to the buyers to entice them back in with higher offers!! Talk about tightly held - - not sure how to make an entry that won't keep me up all night, every night......

Good luck to the holders, recent price action suggests all time highs will be tested ie not many other resistance lines to break!

Might look for a flag formation for a possible entry..

 

[roland]

Hi Roland - sure it can happen - but then it's up to the buyers to entice them back in with higher offers!! Talk about tightly held - - not sure how to make an entry that won't keep me up all night, every night......

Good luck to the holders, recent price action suggests all time highs will be tested ie not many other resistance lines to break!

Might look for a flag formation for a possible entry..

Hi DD, I bought in at .31 at a level where I didn't mind which way it went - good profit on a small % rise and willing to hold for more, or on a fall wouldn't mind putting a few extra $$'s in to average down

YT's excitement always makes my eyebrows lift and force me to do more of my own research (thanks Young Trader)

Still highly spec, but am happy with risk/reward ratio. Have to make your own decisions, but I have missed out on too may of these to miss out on this one too, and if IRC goes off, then I think we are still at base line.

I also like the RWD tie in - adds to the investment mix.

 

[Sean K]

The past week or so price action has looked pretty encouraging with a few white candles. Approaching potential breakout around these levels. Lots of resistance at 30 for some reason. 23-25 looks be be well established support, so not too much downside perhaps?

Pretty good breakout. Maybe outstanding. Breaking through more resistance at 35 makes it I think, along with the great volume.

Obviously not just ASF buying. Looked to be chased yesterday with the sell side very thin. Disappeared at one point I think.

Nice work LN!

 

[Gekko]

Kennas, as i work full time and only monitor the markets for parts of the day, i was only able to get a few at 35cents yesterday. I would like more, but would appreciate your thoughts on that chart. I see that you say its broken 30 or 35 on volume, but what does that say going forward? Whats the chart say? Further rise or chance to get more?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey Gekko,

The JORC at Julia Creek is actually 8 Billion Tonnes, theres a high grade component and a low grade component (see the pic)

re the grades, well the next major ASX vanadium producer to be is WVL and their avg grade is 0.46% V vs IRC's is 0.4% EQUIV (ie 0.37% + Moly credits)

WVL's JORC is 140Mt's@0.46% V [Mkt Cap 155m shares @ $2 = $310m]
vs
IRC's 4,898Mt's@0.4% V Equiv [Mkt Cap 92m shares @ 30c = $28.5m]

So grades shouldn't be a problem

Whats very intersting is comparing IRC's Moly grades to that of the next big ASX Moly producer MOL

MOL JORC 650Mt's@ 450g/t Mo + Cu and Ag credits (low) [Mkt Cap 100m Shares+options @$2.80 = $280m
vs
IRC's JORC 4898Mt's @ 0.37%V +310g/t Mo [Mkt Cap 92m shares @ 30c = $28.5m]

With Moly and Vanadium prices soaring I think IRC's Julia Creek could become a monster project in time and is certainly worth more than the few million EV its recieving currently once the NTA is take into account

I mean IRC has a 5 Billion Tonne JORC for the high grade area which is at surface and has grades just below that of WVL's Vanadium and MOL's Moly, what a monster

Kennas has kindly bought an error that I made to my attention, both WVL and IRC quote their resource as V2O5 not Vandium and as such there maybe a difference in the I.G.V.



WVL's JORC is 140Mt's@0.46% V2O5 [Mkt Cap 155m shares @ $2 = $310m]
vs
IRC's 4,898Mt's@0.4% V2O5 Equiv [Mkt Cap 92m shares @ 30c = $28.5m]

So grades shouldn't be a problem

Whats very intersting is comparing IRC's Moly grades to that of the next big ASX Moly producer MOL

MOL JORC 650Mt's@ 450g/t Mo + Cu and Ag credits (low) [Mkt Cap 100m Shares+options @$2.80 = $280m
vs
IRC's JORC 4898Mt's @ 0.37%V2O5 +310g/t Mo [Mkt Cap 92m shares @ 30c = $28.5m]


here's what I got from Wikipedia regarding V205 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V2O5 and Vanadium http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanadium

Now I'm pretty sure its the V2O5 price thats $80kg based on this sentence Other applications
In terms of quantity, the major use for vanadium(V) oxide is in the production of ferrovanadium (see above). The oxide is heated with scrap iron and aluminium, producing the iron-vanadium alloy along with alumina as a by-product. In 2005 a shortage of V2O5 caused a price rise to around $40/kg, which in turn caused a rise in the price of ferrovanadium.

Can anyone clarify this? ie is it the V2O5 price thats currently $80kg??


Anyway I have found another error in my calculations, if the Moly price is $35/lb and there are 2.25 lbs in a kg, then in fact the price of MOL per kg = $78.75

So using a Moly price of $75kg and half the current Vanadium price so $40kg not $80kg the Gross Value of Julia Creek is as follows

High Grade
5 Billion tonnes @ 0.37% V = 18.5M Tonnes @ $40k/t ($40kg) = $750Billion

5 Billion tonnes @ 310g/t Mo = 1.55M Tonnes @ $75k/t ($75/kg) = $115Billion


Total In Ground Value = $865Billion USD = $950Billion AUD

Still ridiculously large and thats using a more conservative V price thats half the current

 

[Gekko]

Hey YT that In Ground Value is unbelievable but I think as you have stated the key is extraction

How confident are you that IRC can turn this huge deposit into Billions of Dollars of Profit?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

If you read my other posts you'll see that yes I have acknowledged extraction is they key, otherwise its worthless dirt, however I believe the main man Mick Ruane is going to make this project work,

I am very confident he will for two reasons,

1. A look at his background shows he is a very qualified chemical engineer, he has a PHd in Chemistry and has over 32 years experience in the field,

He also has proven himsefl with White Range, if you do your research you'll see that Michael was able to take an old gold tailings WASTE area which had maybe 0.6-0.8 g/t of gold in it and via some very clever and technical heap leaching was able to net over $5m in profit for the company

Heap leaching is one of the most difficult forms of gold extraction and yet Michael was able to take a worthless waste deposit and turn it into a gold mine (literally) of profits.

This in itself shows me that he is a very capable chemical engineer and thus greatly increases my confidence in his ability to make Julia Creek work.


2. He has put his money where his mouth is, as he has been constantly buying shares on market from 25c up to 30c, he olds over 1/3rd of the company and is thus putting alot of his personal wealth and more importantly time and effort into IRC,

So I am pretty confident that in time this monster deposit should get off the ground, time will tell,

p.s. from the latest qtrly there maybe more profits to come from White Range

 

[Gekko]

Hey YT you make some good points

I too like it when a director believes in their own company so much that they buy lots of shares

So IRC is already a gold producer? Well I guess that shows they know how to make money.

Ok, back to work

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Yeah IRC is a gold producer,

don't ask me how, but with his chemical engineering knowledge Michael was able to turn a waste dump tailings deposit into $5m profit over the past few years when the gold price was as low as $500 an oz

Notice how in the ann Michael somewhat boasts stating that he shall use his knowledge and expertise on other projects as he did with White Range, I guess thats his way of saying just give me time and I'm sure I can make Julia Creek work