HRZ - Horizon Minerals

[J.B.Nimble]

It seems the run up in IRC sp had little to do with Julia Creek and everything to do with RWD. As the hot money has moved on from RWD the IRC sp has eased back with it.

Personally I'm not too concerned. To me, RWD is just a distraction - the main story is JC. The announcements give cause for optimism but on past performance they will continue to be few and far between. On these volumes I wouldn't be surprised to see an easing back to past support levels (barring any major news on JC or another run on RWD). In the meantime I remain a believer and a holder...

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Guys IRC has always been the dark horse for me that had to be in my portfolio,

Given the size of Julia Creek, I always thought IRC was the only stock that had the potential to do a CDU

Nothing fundamental has changed other than IRC's RWD holding dropping in value and thus the NTA dropping a bit,

C'mon MR make your magic work!

 

[jbowman101]

interesting to see no volume today...


wish i had cash to buy in now, bahhhh...


pooooo neeeed toooo fillll spppacccceeeeeeeee

p.s. what did CDU do ?

 

[Sean K]

interesting to see no volume today...

wish i had cash to buy in now, bahhhh...

pooooo neeeed toooo fillll spppacccceeeeeeeee

p.s. what did CDU do ?

jboaman, Please do not pad out posts with crap just to make up the 100 character rule. It is there for a purpose. To stop ramping, and to encourage people to add value. Thanks, kennas

 

[Dr Zaius]

jbowman
This stock is so illiquid, so tightly held that there will likely be plenty of days with no trading. With light trading can be decent price moves (another $70m market cap stock I was close to buying into recently went up 5% in a day, on $400 of volume). Like so many speccies, IRC will run hard on good news and slowly drop back on no news, as the more skittish holders dump at times pretty much like now. Except that I am overweight on this stock already, I would see the current price as a great (perhaps near to last) opportunity for me to accumulate some more on better terms than had been available for the last few weeks.

Going back to a longterm WVL price chart YT posted on this thread 9th April 08, if IRC were to tread the same path as WVL, think of IRC as 3 years from production (and think that the next 12 months coming up for IRC is where WVL went from 20c to $1.50). How's about if Mike Ruane designs/patents the process this year, and gets offtake/JV talks underway. Then wrap the scoping study/bankable feasability study/whatever it's called, sign up offtake/JV and build pilot plant in 2009. Then build initial mine in 2010.

I say initial because I would hope speed to market is high in the minds of IRC management- if production can be up and running fast then all other planned vanadium projects worldwide could be shelved much more easily, even if Rio discover more of this monster deposit next door to IRC. If a Windamurra-sized mine needs to be added to world production each year to keep pace with growth in vanadium demand, better that it is IRC adding this much production. I am very much a fan of the Microsoft/Intel approach (their original offerings were not the best around, they got it out there quicker and came back to quality later).

I understand Dr Ruane prefers to take his time and do it right. I daresay the rest of the directors of IRC (rightly, for now) indulge him on this, but (and Mike, if you're reading, absolutely no offence is meant here) he is a chemical engineer, a critical talent for getting Julia Creek to being an economic proposition, but once such designs/flowsheets/pilot plants are complete, the baton passes to project managers and finance wonks (this is where I hope the pace gets a rocket).

The volumes that would exit the Julia Creek mine likely would not need rail transport the way say iron or coal would, but it looks like the railroad from Mt Isa to Townsville runs through the edge of the lease. The mine would be a bit over 100km from Cloncurry (pop 4,500) so there is a better daily quality of life for the staff (particularly families) than the really remote fly-in fly-out camps (this is a really important plus in the competition for skilled mining labour, won't quote how I know). Just up from Cloncurry is Mt Isa, with all the mining services and suppliers IRC could need on an ongoing basis. I don't know what the energy supply situation in the greater Mt Isa region is, but if WA is any guide (where pipelines for NW Shelf gas are getting laid to feed Pilbara/Midwest/Kalgoorlie industry) then the massive coal seam gas reserves of central Qld may be convenient. So I see location has a number of pluses compared to some of the mining developments mooted in the current boom (and there is going to be a growing number of worthy mining projects ditched over the next few years due to insufficient capacity and input price inflation).

I take heart from Young_Trader saying IRC "had to be in my portfolio", he is one of the most indepth researchers on ASF. I'm a tad worried why he calls it a "dark horse" though- YT? Is it due to the particularly low valuation the market has given a resource of this size (hence it considering it particularly risky)? And I will take "potential to do a CDU" to be more of a reflection of how their massive deposit caused a massive sp hike, than how their management were fast and loose with the truth.

 

[Dr Zaius]

I've posted twice on ASF, both regarding IRC, and upon looking back at my posts I felt perhaps I was underrating Dr Ruane. Looking at how he is playing his hand with RWD v IRC, it looks to me he is very astutely riding the spike in market enthusiasm for fertiliser-mining to prevent diluting IRC. What this means is he values IRC (and by extension its flagship Julia Creek resource) ahead of the likely more stable/predictable result that will come out of RWD. I would hazard a guess we will see Dr Ruane start to remove himself from RWD from here on (now that Lake Disappointment is well advanced), to concentrate on IRC (but then his foray into RER flies in the face of that notion, I got no idea why he is doing that one).

I have heard comments that Dr Ruane keeps the noises coming out of IRC to a minimum in order to buy up as much of it as he can. Several poster have phoned him and via that forum he is quite forthcoming with details of plans. Perhaps he is just the antithesis of the big-talking low-delivering MDs that abound these days, he is the old school patrician type who doesn't tell you daily he loves you but will come through with the goods much better than today's SNAG.

That Dr Ruane has been buying IRC shares on market for the last few years shows he has confidence in the company's prospects, but also respect for the remaining shareholders (with the size of his voting power, he could have just as easily granted himself bucketloads of cheap options as 'performance bonus'). If we don't see Mike continuing to buy on market, it may mean the price has got a bit too rich for him, or it might also just mean he has had his fill (even a director is entitled to diversify- and if this baby takes off he will be a billionaire soon enough, there's only so many ivory backscratchers one really needs).

Psychologists have documented that risk-taking behaviour declines as we age- when we are young we know we have time to recover and try again. And age gives perspective, the longer one has lived the more one has seen (and so the more balanced is an elder's judgement). That Dr Ruane, a man in his 60's or thereabouts, has invested so heavily of his own money (and his superannuation) into IRC says to me he has considered it to be safe (safe enough). Much of what has been posted on ASF has focussed on the potential, the huge riches that IRC/Julia Creek may bring forth. And it is accepted by all that with great reward comes great risk- I am starting to consider the risk not so great given the above.

I think I might make a point of going back to Perth for the AGM this year. When I read a number of posters (on ASF and elsewhere) speak of calling Dr Ruane I thought "leave him alone, let him get on with his job", but perhaps what we should do is pool our queries and one of us phone him once a month and report back to the forum....?

Sorry, I think I am monopolising this thread now.

 

[J.B.Nimble]

Sorry, I think I am monopolising this thread now.

Not at all, Doc. You make some interesting points about MR and his actions/motivations. If I have done my sums right he is 64 (but with the energy and desire of someone a generation younger). His willingness to accumulate gives a lot of confidence that JC is not some distant pipe dream. It will come to fruition and probably sooner than we think. PFS's and BFS's aside, I get the feeling this project is much further advanced behind the scenes than many would expect. With RWD devloping as it is (current sp wobbles notwithstanding) the eventual funding of JC will be a much easier proposition - it is all coming together nicely...

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Going back to a longterm WVL price chart YT posted on this thread 9th April 08, if IRC were to tread the same path as WVL, think of IRC as 3 years from production (and think that the next 12 months coming up for IRC is where WVL went from 20c to $1.50).

Thanks Dr Zaius saved me having to reiterate that, nows the time when Dr R knuckles down and gets the ball rolling, ie the wizard comes out from behind the curtain to show the land of Oz what he really has (no pun intended : )

I take heart from Young_Trader saying IRC "had to be in my portfolio", he is one of the most indepth researchers on ASF. I'm a tad worried why he calls it a "dark horse" though- YT? Is it due to the particularly low valuation the market has given a resource of this size (hence it considering it particularly risky)? And I will take "potential to do a CDU" to be more of a reflection of how their massive deposit caused a massive sp hike, than how their management were fast and loose with the truth.

Dr Zaius, my comments re "Dark Horse" and "CDU comparison" refer (as you say) to the absolutely enormous size of the deposit and the fact that if/when it all falls together it will really catch the mkt by surprise,

 

[Sean K]

IRC seems to have found decent support at 35 ish, and out of the downward trend. Now tracking sideways until 40 is broken, at which time it may be considered to be trending up again.

I suppose RWDs recovery has been part to blame also.

May was not a good month....eeek

 

[Sean K]

IRC seems to have found decent support at 35 ish, and out of the downward trend. Now tracking sideways until 40 is broken, at which time it may be considered to be trending up again.

I suppose RWDs recovery has been part to blame also.

May was not a good month....eeek

Looks to be just running on the back of RWD really. RWD gap up as well and breaking out. IRC large gap up, better finish, but low volume. Some blue and red lines on a chart below. Hardly any value been placed on JC, IMO. Sold half of this at 39.

 

[Datsun Disguise]

I noticed that Michael Ruane has substantially increased his holding in RER following his resolutions being voted down at the GM. Strange thing is that the increase in shares from ~13m to 27.5m has resulted in a decrease in voting power from 18% to 17% - shouldn't that read approx 36%?

Confused - anyone can explain?

Also comments on this pretty 'feisty' behaviour? Michael must like something about RER.

 

[gog246]

Moly secures ThyssenKrupp supply agreement
25th June 2008, 10:00 WST

Moly Mines has signed a 10-year deal to sell all production from its Spinifex Ridge Molybdenum project to Germany’s ThyssenKrupp AG.

ThyssenKrupp, Germany’s largest steelmaker, will buy the output of the Spinifex Ridge mine and participate in the equity financing component of the project, which is expected to produce 24 million pounds of molybdenum a year.

The price to be paid by the firm will be determined with reference to the prevailing market prices and conditions to the sale.

Molybdenum prices have climbed more than fivefold since early 2004 on increasing demand for steel in China, the world’s largest consumer. Drummed molybdenum for sale in the European Union traded at $US33.50 a pound on June 20.

Moly chief executive Derek Fisher said in a statement that the agreement was a keystone to the project financing.



Looks great when the patent is approved for irc ,M Rune get your finger out & forget rer as it's a waste of your energy

 

[J.B.Nimble]

...Molybdenum prices have climbed more than fivefold since early 2004 on increasing demand for steel in China, the world’s largest consumer. Drummed molybdenum for sale in the European Union traded at $US33.50 a pound on June 20......

Looks great when the patent is approved for irc ,M Rune get your finger out & forget rer as it's a waste of your energy

I have done a bit of hunting in AusPat for signs of the patent. Either I am using the wrong key words or it is still in preparation because I can't find anything pending or in application. I did find what appeared to be patents in MR's name for work done with Solbec pharmaceuticals and Healthlink. An interesting career... If anyone knows anything about the patent progress please share... otherwise we wait patiently for our quarterly ration of information...

What I did find was plenty of patents relating to the vanadium redox battery. What a game changing technology that is. Could have major impact in peaky renewable sources of electricity like wind and solar... If Vanadium is suddenly recast as an energy metal, we will all be jumping for joy...

Meantime, the future for moly still looks bright. I buy the occasional tonne or two of moly in my day job (not from my own pocket fortunately). I used to grimace every time I saw the price rise - now... What a lovely co-product for the Vanadium.

 

[gog246]

with the amount in the ground this could potentially be the largest sleeper & being M Runes SMSF i have a lot of faith in this stock , at 64 years of age you want to finish on a winner

 

[Sean K]

Wonder how that mysterious patent is going?

Wonder if these guys are actually doing anything at the moment?

Wonder how the doctor's supper fund is looking now?

I heard a rumour that they are putting a vote to shareholders shortly to change the name of the company to CZR - Comatose Zombie Resources.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

:goodnight

 

[J.B.Nimble]

Wonder how that mysterious patent is going?

Wonder if these guys are actually doing anything at the moment?

Wonder how the doctor's supper fund is looking now?

I heard a rumour that they are putting a vote to shareholders shortly to change the name of the company to CZR - Comatose Zombie Resources.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

:goodnight

Thought everyone had forgotten this one...

Patents - still nothing doing that I can find.
Doing anything - hmm...
1. maybe setting up a lab because the good doctor is clearly peeved at progress thorugh outsourced lab work.
2. Definitely giving the engineering and economics a bit of rigour - concept study in progress with Lycopodium

I was bit deflated with the quarterly information ration only because I was expecting too much and symapthetic to the good doctor's frustration. On subsequent reads I take heart in this report...

 

[Dr Zaius]

it is looking like the deal with xtract energy plc may unravel, given qld govt sounds like they are outlawing oil shale production.

"Ms Bligh said only one lease to mine oil shale existed, in Gladstone, and legislation would be passed so no new shale oil mines were permitted anywhere in Queensland."
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24229980-3102,00.html

so, intermin's shares in xtract will dive (probably only a bit, i'm sure xtract have got exploration in many other jurisdictions). and xtract won't be in co-production (which would have been great).

oh well.

 

[J.B.Nimble]

Interesting to see that in the midst of all this mess, MR is happily buying up...
25/8 127,231 for $31,125 (0.244)
18/9 140,000 for $29,493 (0.210)

The annual report makes interesting reading. Now we have some scale on the proposed Julia Creek operation - 2MTpa of ore for 7,000 Tpa V2O5 and 700 Tpa MoO3 - runs out to $300mill revenue at current prices. The scale is encouraging for lowish capex...

We also have a timeline -

Intermin is confident that the necessary metallurgical studies and scoping study will be completed prior to the end of the calendar year 2008 and that the outcome of the study will indicate a commercially attractive development scenario of considerable potential value for shareholders.

And somehow we have quietly turned a modest profit again.

 

[refined silver]

Now we have some scale on the proposed Julia Creek operation - 2MTpa of ore for 7,000 Tpa V2O5 and 700 Tpa MoO3 - runs out to $300mill revenue at current prices. The scale is encouraging for lowish capex...And somehow we have quietly turned a modest profit again.

What was the CAPEX? Missed it! Got the proposed prod'n figs, missed the CAPEX. Trying to read a lot of ARs that all come out the same time.

Yes, seems very well run to keep turning out profits. The health patent in the good doc's name explains the new Health shares in some co that IRC now have.

 

[J.B.Nimble]

What was the CAPEX? Missed it! Got the proposed prod'n figs, missed the CAPEX. Trying to read a lot of ARs that all come out the same time.

Yes, seems very well run to keep turning out profits. The health patent in the good doc's name explains the new Health shares in some co that IRC now have.

Sorry to have unintentionally mislead you on the capex - there was no number and I hope you didn't end up trawling back through the report looking for it. That was just me musing on the relatively modest scale of operation - 2 millTpa down from earlier suggestions of 3mill or more. Having just called it modest (in terms of ore tonnage), it would still be world scale - it seems not far adrift of the output of Windimurra and I believe the global V market is equivalent to around 110kTpa V2O5 equivalent (USGS data).

I recall reading forecasts that the world would need a Windimurra a year for the coming few years to keep pace with demand growth - in the current environment, who knows...

Asset backing is a bit of a moving target at the moment, but it would seem that sp acknowledges only a fairly minimal value for Julia Creek over and above the listed investments. Heartlink has been around for a while (got a mention in last years AR) so new cash outlay. No idea what they would be worth...