House prices to stagnate for 'years'

[clowboy]

.

Owners are paying highish interest rates,

LMAO

Who is paying highish rates?

 

[Kauri]

Owners are paying highish interest rates,

Paul Keating would love you...

 

[Realist]

I did say ....ish.

 

[Bronte]

Not anymore. More euphoria from quality journalism in today's Adelaide Advertiser :
"Mining set to drive up home prices"
"Mining growth es expected to fuel a property price SURGE in South Australia. "
"With at least six SA mining projects expected to be decided this year and more than 40 exploration companies scouring SA for new discoveries, many believe it is only a mater of time before property prices climb sharply"
So there you have it. Can't go wrong with Real Estate in South Australia - Safe as Houses.
Even the auctioneer says, Ladies and Gentlemen, step up, place you bids. Your buying appreciating assets, buy today - worth more tomorrow.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21176251-643,00.html

 

[wayneL]

The great house price crash begins (in the UK at least)

LONDON (AFX) - House prices in England and Wales edged lower in the final three months of 2006 from the third quarter, figures from the Land Registry revealed.
The average house price dropped to 207,573 stg from 211,453 stg, a 1.8 pct drop.
In Greater London, prices fell to 321,971 stg from 330,838 stg, a 2.6 pct drop.

 

[Bronte]

Good morning
So have you sold?

 

[wayneL]

Good morning
So have you sold?

I am a buyer at the right price, which we are currently not even remotely close to.

Cheers

 

[robots]

hello,

another conspiracy from the government this week to keep house prices up:


rates left unchanged

thankyou
robots

 

[wayneL]

A bit of fun for the bears:

http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/

 

[wayneL]

hello,

another conspiracy from the government this week to keep house prices up:


rates left unchanged

thankyou
robots

The interest rate setting mechanism is (allegedly) independent via the central banks.

It is the government statistics (which the CBs are legislated to work to) which are subject to manipulation. This is obvious to all who give them more than a cursory glance.

America is panic stations, UK just starting to see falls, parts of oz seen falls already. Is it a trend yet? There are some trends emerging. But by the time the trend is apparent to all and sundry, blood will already be trickling in the gutters.

Value will eventually be restored.

 

[tech/a]

Dont know where you guys get this stuff from but if you keep living your life on expert opinion you'll never be expert in anything you do.

There are opportunities everywhere.
There are simple steps you take to minimise risk exposure.
All you have to do is find the opportunity
Know how to take advantage of it and
DO IT.

This housing Rubbish has been going on since 1998.
This Stock Market heading for a crash--for the last 12 yrs Ive been involved.

Bearish rubbish is applauded.
Bullish talk and heaven forbid working examples and your an inflated GURU.

Frankly I believe its only those who dont and havent taken advantage of the opportunities that are and have been presented-----who go on with this doom and gloom stupidity.

If they had they would be well aware of how to deal with all situations.

Youll die WAITING.

 

[wayneL]

Dont know where you guys get this stuff from but if you keep living your life on expert opinion you'll never be expert in anything you do.

There are opportunities everywhere.
There are simple steps you take to minimise risk exposure.
All you have to do is find the opportunity
Know how to take advantage of it and
DO IT.

This housing Rubbish has been going on since 1998.
This Stock Market heading for a crash--for the last 12 yrs Ive been involved.

Bearish rubbish is applauded.
Bullish talk and heaven forbid working examples and your an inflated GURU.

Frankly I believe its only those who dont and havent taken advantage of the opportunities that are and have been presented-----who go on with this doom and gloom stupidity.

If they had they would be well aware of how to deal with all situations.

Youll die WAITING.

Tosh... and calling people stupid because they disagree with your POV is bad form Tech.

The old "you're jealous" argument is absolute nonsense. I expected better than this schoolyard tactic from you.

There are people right now in the US UK and Aus who are in dire financial trouble because they took the "opportunity"... especially in the US where some folks have lost hundreds of thousands in the crash that is in progression there.

It's happening! The only question is the magnitude.

 

[tech/a]

Wayne.

I will argue that those who are losing $100,000s are those who didnt conduct due diligence.

Further they had no idea of how to equate risk.
(You cant tell me that everyone of these people are a victim of circumstance).

They bought too late
They geared too high
They didnt understand what they were doing
They didnt have a plan that WORKS. No point in having a plan that leads to failure!!!
They just weren't ready.

Further-----again they made decisions that were ill concieved.
I've lost a small fortune over the years myself and each time its been my own naivity. Look back on your own disasters---anyone!

We've all had them and I've sat back just like the majority and watched as opportunities go buy numbed by the thought of doing something stupid again.

Until I understood QUANTIFIED risk.

Seriously whats the point of hollow rehetoric on doom and gloom when there is stacks of hints that many here can pass on to those who recognise opportunity which comes along at ALL times in life.
The only solution Ive seen here is WAIT---When? What for? Then what?

Its a classic case of Doing the same thing day in and day out and expecting a DIFFERENT result.
Dont wait for circumstances to change!!!
Change YOUR circumstances!!!

I was contacted by a contributor here today---They know who they are and I hope they also know by now that they JUST ARENT ready.
They havent considered above.
Their plans are ill conceived.
(Not you Simon!)

There is a Major Major RENT shortage---anyone taken that opportunity and run with it???????.
Commercial and or Industrial-----anyone doing their due diligence??????

So its happening ---avoid it.
Look for opportunity else where.

Heavens BHP is falling get out of the stock market.
Look else where.

Its not that hard. People make it hard.

 

[krisbarry]

tech/a you have been lucky enough to be born at the right time and be in the right place to cash in on a once in a 30 year housing boom.

Just out of interest how would you have performed if the above boom didn't exsist.

I reckon you would be in the same boat as the rest of us.

Can you explain to me how I can ride a once in a 30 year boom, considering I was in nappies and playing with lego, while you were a little older and wiser.

Its all relative right. The next boom will come round for me at the same time as it has for you, around the 50 to 60 year age bracket.

Its easy to make money in a booming market...hell just throw a bucket load of cash at a small cap uranium mining comapny and you have a winner too.

Anyway the boom is over...its a waiting game now!

 

[wayneL]

Tech,

There is a perception that housing bears are doing nothing but complaining.

That's not true. Many of the bears I talk to are taking opportunities outside of RE. I personally am positioned in RE where I want to be for the current circumstances and likewise, persuing other avenues. I am on the verge of pulling off a deal in the UK which I've been working on for some time. In fact am emigrating shortly to tie it all up.

Becoming a developer, or spending vast amounts of time chasing deals is not everyones cup of tea. That's a good thing, because if every body did that it would ruin it for those who are prepared to/enjoy doing that sort of thing.

All the more for people like you if you want to put it that way.

Most people just want to buy a bloody house to live in at a price that reflects some sort of value. Vested interests, and folks like Robots, advise people to "just buy". Are these your people who have not done their DD? You betcha. They have been sold the myth of the perpetual boom.

Property values always revert to mean of value. Those who have decided not to buy will have their eye on these measures of value and will buy when value is acceptable.

Bear is a legitimate place to be. Just remember bears are bears so they can become bulls. One day I'll be here p!ssing everyone off with rampant bullishness.

Cheers

 

[robots]

hello,

yes I encourage people to get in as early as possibe

prices have not crashed, "quality" houses or units in Melb or Syd have not dropped by 50% or 40 or 20% or 10% or 5% ACROSS THE BOARD

NO-ONE HAS PROVIDED ANY STATS ON THIS

get it quality, these are available in all price brackets and all suburbs

these are the properties that have increased and remain solid as, which I have been constantly suggesting

you pay a premium to live in quality whether it be the North Shore or St Kilda always

thankyou
robots

 

[nomore4s]

tech/a you have been lucky enough to be born at the right time and be in the right place to cash in on a once in a 30 year housing boom.

Just out of interest how would you have performed if the above boom didn't exsist.

I reckon you would be in the same boat as the rest of us.

Can you explain to me how I can ride a once in a 30 year boom, considering I was in nappies and playing with lego, while you were a little older and wiser.

Its all relative right. The next boom will come round for me at the same time as it has for you, around the 50 to 60 year age bracket.

Its easy to make money in a booming market...hell just throw a bucket load of cash at a small cap uranium mining comapny and you have a winner too.

Anyway the boom is over...its a waiting game now!

All due respect Stop the clock, but you don't have to be in a boom to make money, there are always opportunities around. You just have to look harder for them and do more leg work.

 

[tech/a]

Can you explain to me how I can ride a once in a 30 year boom, considering I was in nappies and playing with lego, while you were a little older and wiser.

Once in 30 yrs!

Well Im 53 and been through 4 of them.
Took advantage of 2. Ive seen mini "Out of charater booms" in your home town 6 times.(Just quickly off the top of my head----Had nothing to do with the economy and everything to do with supply and demand)
(1) The Crafers Freeway
(2) The Holdfast Shores developement.
(3) The Southern expressway--the boom started 18 mths after house prices had risen 25% From $90K for a 4 bedroom to $120K---now $320K min.
(4) Not to mention the Submarine contract---Housing in salisbury went up 30%
(5) Or to mention the Ghan rail link to Darwin---Industrial property doubled and it was telegraphed years ahead that it was happening! You could have still made 60% while it was being built!
(6) Now Whyalla with Onesteel You could buy a house for $50K now $100K + if you can find one.
(7) Port Pirie with Zinifex---same thing.

Thats 10 without even trying---every 30 yrs---your really not trying!

Thats how! You dont need $500K you need to spot opportunity and get outside the box.

Where would I be??? Right here doing exactly what I'm doing now---do you think I was born a Rich Bastard??? Your the only person who hasnt $20k to his name? (as a point of reference.) I've never been where you are??

Its easy to make money in a booming market...hell just throw a bucket load of cash at a small cap uranium mining comapny and you have a winner too.

Are you doing that?? Yes OK whats the problem buy a house and get some equity---no OK then buy another Uranium Boomer. Whatever,its an opportunity as you percieve it---youve quantified risk--youve reaped the rewards---see it can be done!!

Not doing it???---why not! Fear of loss that why! (if your not).
Then learn how to quantify risk---you wont get ahead without it!

Property values always revert to mean of value.

Really!!! When will No's 1-7 revert to the mean.??

The mean is the price that can be demanded by supply and demand.

Find where demand will out strip supply now or in the future.
Those waiting for CBA to return to the mean or Westfields or Berkshire Hathaway will die waiting!!

Price doest have to revert to anything it can and does become the ACCEPTED mean---thats what its worth!!!

Why wait for the heart of Sydney to do anything---go elsewhere---many went to Perth/Adelaide, including those who did their due diligence in Sydney
Bugga waiting for it to come back find where it will go ahead!

I see post after post on buying VALUE from these fundmantalists.
Yet the same people go on and on about the over valuation of property--???

Excuses,easier than doing---human nature.

 

[Smurf1976]

They bought too late
They geared too high
They didnt understand what they were doing

Precisely the arguments many bears have been expressing.

The line between bulls and bears seems to have become incredibly thin.

 

[Julia]

"Property values always revert to mean of value. "

Piffle.

Agree entirely with Tech.

Julia