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House prices to keep falling for years

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chops_a_must said:
Let me get this straight.

You argue the costs of debt are going down, yet are admitting to deflation?

Do you even understand the dynamics of debt and its relation to inflation and deflation?
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hello,

nope, wouldnt have a clue chops

just plodding along with the crew, not to many holders of real assets out there that are concerned about those things,

they a given like the sun coming up, irrelevant

thankyou
robots
 
robots said:
hello,

nope, wouldnt have a clue chops

just plodding along with the crew, not to many holders of real assets out there that are concerned about those things,

they a given like the sun coming up, irrelevant

thankyou
robots
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Obviously, because it could prove very costly.

And given you don't have a clue, don't you think it is highly questionable for you to be telling people that it is a great time to buy etc.?

And if you think widespread and massive asset deflation is irrelevant, you and a whole host of others are in for a whole world of hurt.
 
robots said:
hello,

no i dont think so

thankyou
robots
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Sounds like a RE Agent to me.



I would say.... read my post. As someone who has been scanning I have decided to hold off for a while after what I saw today.


Now is not the time to buy.


If property does go up....it will be a maximum of 5% over the year.

If it does go down....it could go down 10-20 or even 30% in some areas.


The safe bet, is to wait. If it goes up you don't lose alot. (In fact, the time you are not servicing the interest on the massive debt means you lose nothing at all)


If it goes down..... could be a significant loss if yo buy. Or a significant gain if you wait.
 
chops_a_must said:
I hope you have the correct accreditation to be advising people that it is a great time to buy etc.
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Hiya,

You obviously have a very negative outlook for the property market.

Can I ask if you have any basis for this opinion given all the evidance to the contrary?

I know a little about the property market, but I dont know much about the effect the stock market failures will have on it.

Regards
 

I don't think we want to repeat the whole discussion again.

If you wish to understand why we have a negative outlook on the property market, refer to the previous posts in this thread. And yes, it's a LOT OF READINGS.

When you say, "evidences to the contrary", be VERY CAREFUL with where you are getting your evidences from. From the media or from those who have a vested interest in cheer leading the property market?
 
wallyt99 said:
If property does go up....it will be a maximum of 5% over the year.
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the reliable research shows "real" property prices in most capitals sliding by .5% - 1% over the next year. That would actually be an increase of 2-3% but is a net loss after inflation.

This does not take into account the recent interest cuts or the FHB Grant.

So its probably safe to wait if you think the above wont have too much posative effect.

Following year is projected 5-6% growth.
 
PropertyGuy said:
Can I ask if you have any basis for this opinion given all the evidance to the contrary?
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What evidence to the contrary?

We have seen the biggest credit bubble in history pop, lending standards are going to be stricter, unemployment is sure to rise, prices are unaffordable, all the new developments I can see are largely unsold, ads for property in other states everywhere, developers stopped almost a year ago.

Anything else?

Oh yeah... and prices are going down currently.
 
ROFL.
 
Realistically, there is only one thing less accurate than the weatherman are the economists. If people had EVIDENCE for the direction of the market, they would not have crashed and we would all be millionaires. The market does not work this way.

Perhaps you could ask all the economists who used to work at Bear Stearns what they think... They are quiet not since their multi billion $$$ company went belly up.

The best thing people can keep in mind, is that the best ANYONE can offer is an educated (or not so educated) Guess.
 

Ok well to start with, I am in complete agreement about being VERY CAREFUL of data sources and only rely on sources that sell research institutionally on their past accuracy eg BIS Shrapnal.

I have no interest in spruking from the likes of APM etc who are only interested in getting their name in print to sell a report to moms and pops on their house value - they are continually wrong but no one really cares.

I am stating for a fact that all credible data has the property markets in a very strong state as highlighted in my previous post.

Ive read the previous threads and seen nothing of note apart from personal opinions that would change the outlook hence the reason for asking for an actual fact that would challenge a robust property market.
 

agree... but since we are talking property, you dont have fat cats with performance bonus' trading up your house value's and hiding bad deals in order to make fat chrismas bonus' with no regard for the future after they cut and run.
 
PropertyGuy said:
agree... but since we are talking property, you dont have fat cats with performance bonus' trading up your house value's and hiding bad deals in order to make fat chrismas bonus' with no regard for the future after they cut and run.
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Rofl.

So banks and those involved with property trusts, i.e. investment banks, have no interest in talking up the property market?

Are you intentionally being funny?
 
chops_a_must said:
Rofl.

So banks and those involved with property trusts, i.e. investment banks, have no interest in talking up the property market?

Are you intentionally being funny?
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you are a forum troll who is making no sense - im not responding to you anymore. The residential property market is robust and strong. sydney, perth and brisbane have some issues but you cant make the rest of the country have imaginary issues just by typing it in a forum - facts are facts.

If there are any people out there who have serious desire to discuss this issue, I would like to hear views on how the current stock market crash will affect the residential property market - personally im not really interested in views on the current state of the property markets as I am fully aware of the current status of markets.

I can offer current market status for Melbourne market including sale rates for most major projects currently on the market - ask me the project, i can tell you the meter rate's, sales rates and availability.
 
After reading some of the crap you post who are you to call other people a troll?

It's not all sweetness and light you know. Here's an article from Melbourne’s number one property spruiker. I've got a feeling that the smoke and mirrors campaign they have been running is growing a bit thin. You can only hide the truth for so long before readers start to leave I suppose.

Auctions fall despite grant boost

"The attraction of the $14,000 grant for an existing house was not enough to stop clearance rates from collapsing by a staggering 6% yesterday - the worst result since separate records for Saturday sales have been kept. It follows another 5% fall last weekend."
Even my mate Enzo is having second thoughts. He rigged the clearance rate a few weeks ago to give a higher figure and it still falls. Where he goes to from here I don't know. Come on Enzo ramp it up!

"Real Estate Institute of Victoria chief executive Enzo Raimondo said: "If we don't see an improvement within the next couple of weeks we can assume things will continue like this for a while yet."


 
PropertyGuy said:
I can offer current market status for Melbourne market including sale rates for most major projects currently on the market - ask me the project, i can tell you the meter rate's, sales rates and availability.
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PropertyGuy, are you a real estate agent?
 
Those who hold the biggest hands ultimately determine the direction of markets. Simple fact, funds look at best return views in short medium and long term. Now if your a fund and have just seen the stock market crash by 40%( roughly equivalent to biggest falls in history or thereabouts)and the price of property fall say 5%, (nowhere near the average fall in a pullback/crash) then where is the better value in the next 5 years.

Those who hold the biggest hands take longer to change their positions,

That is why when the share markets fall, property sees falls in the following couple of years, because those with the biggest hands see more value in the share market going forward.

Those funds use methods that are in general known only specifically to themselves, whatever it is their basing their decisions upon, if we knew the exact method they use, we would simply wait for them to change positions and ride the coat tails.

The reality is that value going forward from now is DEFINATELY in the share market, according to historical parameters. History is all we have to measure against and that is one of the reasons why history repeats.

Think about superannuation funds. Every month in Australia alone billions of dollars must flow into either cash, shares or property or combination thereof. So value going forward MUST be weighted in the share market, so new funds alone will preference shares as distinct from property.

Funds talk about growth, but growth means averaging 10% odd over time, but more than that if one gets in early enough to a rising market. There are plenty of good shares now that are paying substantial dividends going forward, so a little bit of growth gives good annual returns going forward.

Have a look at banks shares, there is not one fund out there that would not be aware that bank shares will regain huge % growth in year or so following a share market route and they will want to take advantage of that.

When all is said and done, property must fall to allow the share market to outperform due to its greater prospective value going forward.
 
Sorry guys for not participating in this thread last night. Looks like a lot of activity.

I was actually having tea with my Landlord. One of his sons is in year 10 studying commerce. The last two weeks the topic has been on the global financial crisis and his son was telling me about the housing bubble, level of household debt and serviceability levels. He was able to say that the crisis in the states was more to do with the bubble and debt levels, than it was with defaults on subprime - that was just a trigger.
 
hello,

dont get upset propertyguy, we all trolls man, its just discussion and debate

surely the handout brigade arent now claiming the auction results as supporting their opinion, for years the cries have been auction results mean nothing now it supports the claims, a bit hypocritical

the RBA will take note as always and go bang! down go the interest rates again, great time for the money renters

people will be soon giving money to the Gov when they all go positive geared, doing our bit for society

great day, life rolls on

thankyou
robots
 
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