House prices to keep falling for years

[gfresh]

Well you were yesterday claiming they were "great results", and first thing I read in the paper this morning is they were the worst in Melbourne for four years so it's more of a question of what is being said by yourself, as to what is is happening out there.

The results may not mean much, but I read that many vendors had been convinced by realestate agents to switch from fixed to Auctions, to cash in on this FHOB rush, and realise a higher price. Well that has failed hasn't it, if there are few buyers it's a waste of time and money.

When even the paper that is largely paid by realestate agents dollars is running a lead story on the slumping auction market, I'd say there is not much good news out there to be found.

 

[nunthewiser]

Expats set to boost property market
19/10/2008 12:10:01 PM
Expat Australians looking to flee the global financial crisis are poised to set off a fresh wave of buying in property markets nationwide.

Jennifer Nielsen, chief executive of Loan

Market Group, says inquiries for home loans from expatriates have escalated in recent weeks. Loan Market operates a home finance broking group including leading independent broker X Inc Finance.

"There is strong interest from expatriate Australians, many of them banking and finance professionals, who are looking to return home to escape the credit crunch in places like London and Singapore," Ms Nielsen said.

"They want to buy property before they come back - we now have three in-house brokers dedicated to servicing inquiries from expats on top of our normal inquiries."

Ms Nielsen said interest from expatriates was expected to escalate in response to home mortgage rate cuts in Australia and the federal government's $10.4 billion economic package.

"The big drop in the Australian dollar is also a huge advantage to returning expats," she said.

"If they are cashed up in US dollars or UK pounds, they are keen to come into the Australian property market right now and chase a bargain."

Ms Nielsen said the home loan market had been resilient in recent months, despite ongoing concerns about the impact of a volatile world economy on Australia.

"While there is no question that the underlying residential real estate market in Australia has slowed in the past 12 months, the volume of inquiries about home loan finance is actually quite solid," she said.

"The interesting trend is the clear majority of people are inquiring about new finance, as opposed to people who are struggling somewhat and seeking refinance."

Ms Nielson said a tough rental market in most capital cities was the primary force pushing first home buyers to seek home loans.

"Many (renters) are looking to escape the rental trap by buying," she said.

 

[cutz]

Hi

Can anyone suggest a source of property market info charting clearance rates, median prices, mortgage defaults ect. for the Australian market.

Thanks,

Cutz

 

[robots]

Well you were yesterday claiming they were "great results", and first thing I read in the paper this morning is they were the worst in Melbourne for four years so it's more of a question of what is being said by yourself, as to what is is happening out there.

The results may not mean much, but I read that many vendors had been convinced by realestate agents to switch from fixed to Auctions, to cash in on this FHOB rush, and realise a higher price. Well that has failed hasn't it, if there are few buyers it's a waste of time and money.

When even the paper that is largely paid by realestate agents dollars is running a lead story on the slumping auction market, I'd say there is not much good news out there to be found.

hello,

yes back 4 yrs ago, no crash then in 2004 things just plodded along

peace out brothers, enjoy the day in this fine country

thankyou
robots

 

[Glen48]

There is a web site called ONTHEHOUSE.COM which show homes sold by street or suburbs.
In mine last June 87 were sold June this yr 8

 

[robots]

hello,

here we go fellow money renters,

NAB just come to the party with 25 basis pt drops, wow all those extra rises and a bit more have gone vanished disappeared completely,

my rate gone from 9.02 to 8.02 and will probably get 25pts in the next fee days when the CBA moves,

nirvana, any questions fire away

thankyou
robots

 

[Beej]

I notice as usual articles like this one: http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/buyers-rally-as-rates-drop/2008/10/18/1223750399532.html have conveniently not been posted to this thread. Good sales and auction clearance rate in Sydney on the weekend - 60% and good volume. Lot's of increased activity reported, especially in the FHB segments.

Again, on the same other forum, no one has ever answered my question on why house prices can INDEFINITELY rise above wage growth over the very long term. (30+ years) Wouldn't this one day make an average income earner to pay more than 100% of his/her income to service the mortgage loan on an average priced house. Clearly this is unsustainable. But of course, people think boom will last forever because it has done so before. Recency bias again.

Actually Temjin I think PropertyGuy answered this question quite well with his post here (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=351316&postcount=1153) from yesterday. To paraphrase, over a long time the MEDIAN house price can only track wage/growth/inflation yes, and long term this is what it will do. However, when you buy in an established area where no more supply can be created of what you bought (other than to sub-divide which is another matter), then your asset becomes more and more desirable and EXCLUSIVE over time, in effect moving further and further away from where it was relative to the median when you bought it. In that way the value can and certainly does increase at a rate above inflation over the long term. To me and most others who understand the residential property market this makes perfect sense, and it's why we find all the analysis posted in forums like this laughable - it just does not reflect either the actual history of the market, or a common sense based understanding of who buys real estate, why they buy it and how they figure out how much they will pay for it.

Sadly just like shares but RE will stay flat for yrs while you pay Rates Insurance and maintain which is money you have to get back before you can get a capital gain..shares you can see what is going on at any given time and if they start going up again you should be cashed up and poised...

Except you can't live in your shares...... you can't take a dip on the pool in the backyard of your shares on a nice summers afternoon, like today in Sydney

PS: PropertyGuy - good articulate posts! Don't be put off by some of the aggressively negative responses you got here. There are people who dream of a property market crash purely for their own benefit. They may have put off buying for years and are jealous of those in the market who benefit everyday from their purchase both financially and in terms of lifestyle. They cannot understand why prices have kept rising, or why they are holding up pretty well in a finiancial crisis etc, when all their stock market based analysis suggests to them that the price of a house WHERE THEY WANT TO LIVE should be less than what it is. They quote career opportunists like Prof Steven Keen from UWS who has been prediciting something for nearly a decade that still hasn't happenned yet. I could go on but it's all been said in previous posts in this thread!

Cheers,

Beej

 

[MrBurns]

. They quote career opportunists like Prof Steven Keen from UWS who has been prediciting something for nearly a decade that still hasn't happenned yet. I could go on but it's all been said in previous posts in this thread!

Cheers,

Beej

Last time I looked he was right and a lot of people have seen this coming for years, the longer it took to happen the worse the result will be as the bubble just kept building as did the debt.

 

[Mofra]

Last time I looked he was right and a lot of people have seen this coming for years, the longer it took to happen the worse the result will be as the bubble just kept building as did the debt.

... no actually, he has been dead wrong for an extended period of time. He's on 60 minutes telling people that his home is now on the market - where was the courage of his conviction during his previous public discourses? Why wasn't his home on the market sooner?

If someone is flipping a coin, and you keep yelling "heads" everytime, you may be right sooner or later.... but that doesn't make you Nostradamus, and it doesn't mean the coin will be heads next time you flip it.

 

[MrBurns]

... no actually, he has been dead wrong for an extended period of time. He's on 60 minutes telling people that his home is now on the market - where was the courage of his conviction during his previous public discourses? Why wasn't his home on the market sooner?

If someone is flipping a coin, and you keep yelling "heads" every time, you may be right sooner or later.... but that doesn't make you Nostradamus, and it doesn't mean the coin will be heads next time you flip it.

I'll say it one more time, this is different, this is a once in a 100 year event and it will be ugly,

It was always on the cards and those who didn't pick it should have, in any case now it's happening.

If you're so bullish go out and buy something now.

PM says 200,000 unemployed Keen says 1M there are jobs going every day here in Victoria hundreds of them just thrown out of work and it's just the start.

If you have any sense you'll take cover.

Not sure what Warren Buffets plan is , that intrigues me.

 

[nunthewiser]

... no actually, he has been dead wrong for an extended period of time. He's on 60 minutes telling people that his home is now on the market - where was the courage of his conviction during his previous public discourses? Why wasn't his home on the market sooner?

If someone is flipping a coin, and you keep yelling "heads" everytime, you may be right sooner or later.... but that doesn't make you Nostradamus, and it doesn't mean the coin will be heads next time you flip it.

gday m8 , personally thought that 60 minutes article was irresponsible journalism and was using scare tactics to keep the viewers.... yeah agree a housing downturn due and looks to me inevitable BUT to be telling ppl to sell out now will only create fear and panic in those not so used to reading both sides of a story

 

[MrBurns]

gday m8 , personally thought that 60 minutes article was irresponsible journalism and was using scare tactics to keep the viewers.... yeah agree a housing downturn due and looks to me inevitable BUT to be telling ppl to sell out now will only create fear and panic in those not so used to reading both sides of a story

No worse than the real estate industry telling people to snap up the bargains, in fact it's more truthful.

Prople wont panic sell en masse this is property not shares.

 

[Santoro]

hello,

here we go fellow money renters,

NAB just come to the party with 25 basis pt drops, wow all those extra rises and a bit more have gone vanished disappeared completely,

my rate gone from 9.02 to 8.02 and will probably get 25pts in the next fee days when the CBA moves,

nirvana, any questions fire away

thankyou
robots

No, not right now....have to wait several more months..............................................................

 

[Santoro]

No worse than the real estate industry telling people to snap up the bargains, in fact it's more truthful.

Prople wont panic sell en masse this is property not shares.

it will be relative to what levels unemployment falls to, you can't pay your mortgage if you haven't got an income or 2................

 

[robots]

hello,

thats why i like to post unbiased facts, figures and opinions

a lot of sharks out there on both sides, I hope people get something from all the great discussion

got to go one of my all time favorites is about to start Grease ch 7 9.15pm, John Travolta probably just behind Michael Jackson in list of all time movers to grace this planet

enjoy the rest of the night

thankyou
robots

 

[generalofthearmy]

Property is KING.

`Shockmarket' as one user here called it, is a very accurate description for an up and down, but generally down, yo-yo ride of your life.

Everyone knows property goes UP and ever upward! The premise for this thread is, perhaps, imaginary, illusory, illucid, hypothetical and above all, irrelevant to fact. The idea that the property market will suffer a significant collapse in the wake of rising inflation and population is the apotheosis of money-or-your-life speculation.

But let's say it does drop, that will only confirm to the naysayers that property is `bad', and they'' hang on to their CD's and Blue Chips like Dorothy to Todo in a hurricane, and they will inevitably miss the next upswing of the ever onward and ever upward march of success which Real Esate provides.

Thanks.

 

[chops_a_must]

Everyone knows property goes UP and ever upward!

Lolza!

Who paid these professional rampers to get in here?

 

[Santoro]

Property is KING.

`Shockmarket' as one user here called it, is a very accurate description for an up and down, but generally down, yo-yo ride of your life.

Everyone knows property goes UP and ever upward! The premise for this thread is, perhaps, imaginary, illusory, illucid, hypothetical and above all, irrelevant to fact. The idea that the property market will suffer a significant collapse in the wake of rising inflation and population is the apotheosis of money-or-your-life speculation.

But let's say it does drop, that will only confirm to the naysayers that property is `bad', and they'' hang on to their CD's and Blue Chips like Dorothy to Todo in a hurricane, and they will inevitably miss the next upswing of the ever onward and ever upward march of success which Real Esate provides.

Thanks.

ROFL

 

[robots]

hello,

the ShOcK ExChAnGe,

more around with negative equity thanks to above than the humble prop market, yes negative equity, admit it

negative equity mate

all the best

thankyou
robots

 

[chops_a_must]

hello,

the ShOcK ExChAnGe,

more around with negative equity thanks to above than the humble prop market, yes negative equity, admit it

negative equity mate

all the best

thankyou
robots

Do you know what that is?

Most don't leverage 90 times to buy shares, which makes "negative equity" on shares much less relevant, and in most cases of the sensible around here, completely irrelevant.