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stock_man, I am sorry if I was a bit too hard on you. Please accept my apologies.
WBII
House prices to keep falling for years
- Thread starter Pommiegranite
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stock_man, I am sorry if I was a bit too hard on you. Please accept my apologies.
WBII
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What about the annual rate of emigration and do think that will pick as the economy slows?
Can you show me the math for that?
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The thing I can't understand is why the China Housing Bubble is crashing so fast - Now surely they have a geniune shortage of housing!
(No, really I can understand, prices have just got to a level where no one can afford them. Let's say Australia has a annual wage of $58,000 and a average house price of say 1 Billion dollars. It doesn't matter what immigration rates are, or what the shortage is, who has 1 Billion dollars to spend? It's supply and demand. )
(No, really I can understand, prices have just got to a level where no one can afford them. Let's say Australia has a annual wage of $58,000 and a average house price of say 1 Billion dollars. It doesn't matter what immigration rates are, or what the shortage is, who has 1 Billion dollars to spend? It's supply and demand. )
arco
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IMHO - The rise over the last two years may be corrected....I'd say prices shouldn't drop by more than 15% according to that chart.
Again depends on speed of recovery.......15% would fall to reasonable levels but a serious downturn which we may not experience would put pressure to fall below 15%, where to....no one knows....desperate people do desperate things.
Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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You are still better of renting than buy.owning a home at this stage wait until prices drop over the next few years and then look at buying.
See ACA CH 9 report last night although Harry Dent did say to sell all your share but it might be to late.. Selling share I agree I reckon BHP etc will be $20 in no time.
See ACA CH 9 report last night although Harry Dent did say to sell all your share but it might be to late.. Selling share I agree I reckon BHP etc will be $20 in no time.
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IMHO - The rise over the last two years may be corrected....I'd say prices shouldn't drop by more than 15% according to that chart.
It's already dropped 15%, try and sell something then you'll realise.
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Lets say a property 1 year ago used to be valued at $100K.
If the property is forecast to be valued at only $50K in the coming years, then the house will be worth ($50K/$100K), half of it's previous valuation.
If in this case, you express these hypothetical numbers in percentage terms, then the drop in price is calculated at 50%.
The above is actually arithmetic (certainly not pure mathematics) but I don't see any point in being pedantic about the semantics of the terminology of the calculations adopted to arrive at the answer to your question....
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I can do math.
Show me the math to determine the supposed price drop that results in $50000.
A far as I can tell only gut reaction statements are being used in these assertions about market crashes or burst bubbles . These dont have any validity unless backed up with data to support them
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What do you find interesting?
Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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Selling your house depends one one thing ...finding a buyer ..no buyers its worth Zero...no buyer confidence you are stuck with a piece of junk..I think the RE market is starting to implode and will snow ball over the next few months. Sadly just like shares but RE will stay flat for yrs while you pay Rates Insurance and maintain which is money you have to get back before you can get a capital gain..shares you can see what is going on at any given time and if they start going up again you should be cashed up and poised...
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With a yearly immigration rate of 240,000 do you think these people will be importing there own hooses or living in tents?
If affordability of the housing is high thenits moe difficult to buy but they must live somewhere and with tight rental markets the collapse of the housing market is a fantasy.
The credit crises aint a crises unless we are in the same situation in 3 months time. That wont be the case but ony time will prove who is correct.
A drop of 10 % or 20% is not a collapse but it also depends what base you are coming off.
Variations are to be expected. Keep your eye on the long term. Nobody buys a house for the short term unless you are in the business of flipping.
There will always be buyers for property, but perhaps not at the price you want
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Do you know what emigration is?
arco
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.
Biggest annual exodus from Australia on record
October 07, 2008
Article from: AAP
AUSTRALIA has experienced its biggest annual exodus on record with 76,923 people leaving the country permanently in 2007-08, a new report shows.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24458448-421,00.html
Biggest annual exodus from Australia on record
October 07, 2008
Article from: AAP
AUSTRALIA has experienced its biggest annual exodus on record with 76,923 people leaving the country permanently in 2007-08, a new report shows.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24458448-421,00.html
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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I think it was Roe who pointed out its credit expansion that causes house prices to rise.
hello,
yes yes, another fantastic day in Melbourne
30 degrees, sun shining and a great auction clearance rate of 57%, brilliant
a few vendors hanging out for extra $ knocking the results around but all in all a glorious day,
still having trouble finding that waterfront block for 1999 prices, hope everyone is enjoying the evening
thankyou
robots
yes yes, another fantastic day in Melbourne
30 degrees, sun shining and a great auction clearance rate of 57%, brilliant
a few vendors hanging out for extra $ knocking the results around but all in all a glorious day,
still having trouble finding that waterfront block for 1999 prices, hope everyone is enjoying the evening
thankyou
robots
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Yes a great day, clearance rate down on last week despite the Rudd bribe so let's see what happens next week, property boom ????? I think not.
The revaluation will continue down as the bubble continues to fracture.
hello,
are you sure Mr Burns? things are tough with all the sharemarket turmoil (yes sharemarket) and specuvestor traders that are trying to destroy the world
thankyou
robots
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Pretty sure robots, the new handouts may slow the decline it may be further delayed by money coming out of shares into property but it will continue.
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Dunno about the rest of oz but geez they still getting snapped up here in the huon valley , as they hit market they seemed to grabbed with vigour!!, there is the odd overpriced /cruddy exception but sure no signs of bubble bursts here as yet ,
blessem all
ps had 3 ppl out too look at one of my blocks today , amazing what a sunny day can do
blessem all
ps had 3 ppl out too look at one of my blocks today , amazing what a sunny day can do
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