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Re: Beginner here...
tech/a
Me & the Missus will be over to Australia during the winter, too hot in the summer, maybe we can catch you later in the year, especially as ZZ said you picked up the bill.............just as well for your wallet I wasn't there!
emma
Sure, thought it was something like that.
Charts are complete nonsense, they are a 50/50 proposition, additionally, stoplosses are designed to lose you money, which they succeed in very well I might add.
Regarding financial skills, they are harder to aquire, and take longer and greater effort, which is why so many are attracted to TA, it can be learnt in an afternoon. However, as the old saying goes...........you get what you pay for.
Incompetent is probably a bit strong, but in essence an emotionally weak trader is more accurate.
Paper trading is a very misleading undertaking.
Don't misunderstand here, I am not recommending you not to, just that paper trading results bear very little relation to actualised and realized results.
Oh dear.
Blessed are those who expecteth nothing, for they shall receive it in abundance.
Actually I'm only joking.
This may prove to be a blessing, as it is the psychological issues around money that put paid to the majority of failed and failing traders/investors.
If you are "divorced" from this emotional component, you may very well do extremely well as whether the trade is $100, or $1M, you will react the same way............that is an extremely difficult mindset to achieve.
jog on
d998
tech/a
Me & the Missus will be over to Australia during the winter, too hot in the summer, maybe we can catch you later in the year, especially as ZZ said you picked up the bill.............just as well for your wallet I wasn't there!
emma
.
Sure, thought it was something like that.
Charts are complete nonsense, they are a 50/50 proposition, additionally, stoplosses are designed to lose you money, which they succeed in very well I might add.
Regarding financial skills, they are harder to aquire, and take longer and greater effort, which is why so many are attracted to TA, it can be learnt in an afternoon. However, as the old saying goes...........you get what you pay for.
Incompetent is probably a bit strong, but in essence an emotionally weak trader is more accurate.
Paper trading is a very misleading undertaking.
Don't misunderstand here, I am not recommending you not to, just that paper trading results bear very little relation to actualised and realized results.
Oh dear.
Blessed are those who expecteth nothing, for they shall receive it in abundance.
Actually I'm only joking.
This may prove to be a blessing, as it is the psychological issues around money that put paid to the majority of failed and failing traders/investors.
If you are "divorced" from this emotional component, you may very well do extremely well as whether the trade is $100, or $1M, you will react the same way............that is an extremely difficult mindset to achieve.
jog on
d998
Re: Beginner here...
Gday ducati,
I notice you mentioned you dont use stop/losses.I have often wondered about this.
Basically it comes down to backing yourself on a stock.if it drops in the short term ride it out.Whats generally your time frame for holding or how do you judge your exit from a trade?I always use stop losses on trades i do in speculative stocks which are usually in a short term time frame usually 3 months or less.long term holds i generally just hold.
interested in hearing your trading style if you dont mind explaining it.
cheers
b
Gday ducati,
I notice you mentioned you dont use stop/losses.I have often wondered about this.
Basically it comes down to backing yourself on a stock.if it drops in the short term ride it out.Whats generally your time frame for holding or how do you judge your exit from a trade?I always use stop losses on trades i do in speculative stocks which are usually in a short term time frame usually 3 months or less.long term holds i generally just hold.
interested in hearing your trading style if you dont mind explaining it.
cheers
b
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Re: Beginner here...
Hi ducati916
I disagree with a couple of points you make below. I've put my
worth in red below them.
cheers
bullmarket
Hi ducati916
I disagree with a couple of points you make below. I've put my
worth in red below them.ducati916 said:
cheers
bullmarket
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: Beginner here...
Duc
If in Adelaide let me know I'll put you up in one of our apartments at a cleaning cost,just private mail me---I'll start saving for dinner!
This has been discussed at length on Reef.
Charts.----Anomalies,strong changes in sentiment are what a chartist is looking for---so to do fundamentalists the difference being that Fundumentalists find prospects with potential and Chartists find prospects which are currently showing that its happening.While sentiment may/maynot be on going market perception may afflict both chartist and fundamentalist alike.---but as I have said many times its NOT the analysis which will make you the profit.All it does wether fundamental and or technical is give a possible start point and a possible end point.
Stoplosses----- With longerterm trading methodologies it is possible to be profitable without a stop loss in some cases.However when trading short term where the win rate is to be much higher than 50% and reward to risk ratios less than 2,trading without stops will lead to ruin fairly quickly.Traders mindset is constantly optamistic that the loss will turn to profit tommorow.During extensive testing I have found that the ideal stop length is no more than 10% of purchase price for stocks.A wider 20% stop while it will decrease the number of trades your not stopped out of it has no impact on profit.---What happens is that you find yourself stuck longer in trades wallowing between your stop and initial purchase price---this no mans land of non profit and lost opportunity to be trading something profitable.
Emotional weakness is one of my strong points.
Thats why I trade mechanically.
I have a trading methodology/s that I know work---although tested upon historical data the 3 I use have traded to the higher end of Montecarlo simulations. PLUS I have a blueprint to follow which alerts me to a breakdown in my trading methodology.Many traders have elaborate trading plans and ideas---their biggest problem is that they have no idea wether these elaborate plans will infact make a sustained longterm consistent profit when they implement them---further they have no idea wether that last loss making it 5 in a row is within the parameters of a profitable method--they DONT HAVE A BLUEPRINT. Nothing to compare or draw from---most plans are simply theory---albeit well thought out and logical----the market has a habit of turning logic into chaos.
I agree with Duc to a point.However testing theories in public paper trading is a great learning experience.
(1) Hundreds of people wont let you fudge the figures.
(2) There are 100s of experts ready and willing to help.
(3) You can learn much from being completely transparent in your thinking.
tech
Duc
If in Adelaide let me know I'll put you up in one of our apartments at a cleaning cost,just private mail me---I'll start saving for dinner!
This has been discussed at length on Reef.
Charts.----Anomalies,strong changes in sentiment are what a chartist is looking for---so to do fundamentalists the difference being that Fundumentalists find prospects with potential and Chartists find prospects which are currently showing that its happening.While sentiment may/maynot be on going market perception may afflict both chartist and fundamentalist alike.---but as I have said many times its NOT the analysis which will make you the profit.All it does wether fundamental and or technical is give a possible start point and a possible end point.
Stoplosses----- With longerterm trading methodologies it is possible to be profitable without a stop loss in some cases.However when trading short term where the win rate is to be much higher than 50% and reward to risk ratios less than 2,trading without stops will lead to ruin fairly quickly.Traders mindset is constantly optamistic that the loss will turn to profit tommorow.During extensive testing I have found that the ideal stop length is no more than 10% of purchase price for stocks.A wider 20% stop while it will decrease the number of trades your not stopped out of it has no impact on profit.---What happens is that you find yourself stuck longer in trades wallowing between your stop and initial purchase price---this no mans land of non profit and lost opportunity to be trading something profitable.
Emotional weakness is one of my strong points.
Thats why I trade mechanically.
I have a trading methodology/s that I know work---although tested upon historical data the 3 I use have traded to the higher end of Montecarlo simulations. PLUS I have a blueprint to follow which alerts me to a breakdown in my trading methodology.Many traders have elaborate trading plans and ideas---their biggest problem is that they have no idea wether these elaborate plans will infact make a sustained longterm consistent profit when they implement them---further they have no idea wether that last loss making it 5 in a row is within the parameters of a profitable method--they DONT HAVE A BLUEPRINT. Nothing to compare or draw from---most plans are simply theory---albeit well thought out and logical----the market has a habit of turning logic into chaos.
.
I agree with Duc to a point.However testing theories in public paper trading is a great learning experience.
(1) Hundreds of people wont let you fudge the figures.
(2) There are 100s of experts ready and willing to help.
(3) You can learn much from being completely transparent in your thinking.
tech
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Re: Beginner here...
tasmanian
No I don't use stoplosses. I don't use technical analysis, I don't use charts.
My timeframe for holding is a maximum of three years, or when my exit criteria his fulfilled, and this is different for the variety of strategies that I employ. They are;
Arbitrage
Bankruptcies
Generals.
I am trying to expand into LBO's, but this is a year or two off into the future.
bullmarket
Exactly that, charts are a 50/50 proposition. If you look at tech/a results (closed trades) you will see almost exactly a 50/50 distribution.
If you look at the 50+ live trades I posted on reef when I daytraded, almost exactly 50/50, and I could go on and on, but you need to research it yourself.
Therefore, if it is a 50/50 coin flip, charts have no probability attached to them at all.............technical trading is about money management, or in tech's terms......expectancy which really is just mechanised money management, which is just the methodology that was adopted from professional gambling.
If support and resistance levels ALWAYS held, then I would agree. Unfortunately this is just not the case.
The reason for this is that true support levels are dictated by the value investors, who are not influenced by volatility and value levels change with the financial results of the business. Last years support, may not hold due to a deterioration within the fundamentals, and the value guys do not support the stock at that valuation..........the technicals look at the support line and plan an entry, but, its broken, and all the stops are triggered, end of support level.
For Technical traders they are mandatory as you are clueless as to what is really happening, and you are operating a momentum methodology, often highly leveraged, and you will without a shadow of a doubt blow up your account without a stoploss
With the plethora of "backtesting" software available, I'm not sure that paper trading is the most efficient way of building a strategy.
Where paper trading fails miserably, is in the cruciable of psychological torment.
tech/a
If we get to Adelaide, and there is no reason that we wouldn't, then we will definitely stop by and say hello. You'll need a bridging loan for dinner!!
I
Agreed, posting live trades consistently, as paper trades is certainly a way to reproduce a little of the angst that the market will impose, and is why those of us that have, and do, used it in the first place..........you must put yourself in the spotlight with nowhere to run and hide (jog in my case) and you will gradually become reasonably disciplined.......its still different with real money, but cash is cash.
jog on
d998
tasmanian
No I don't use stoplosses. I don't use technical analysis, I don't use charts.
My timeframe for holding is a maximum of three years, or when my exit criteria his fulfilled, and this is different for the variety of strategies that I employ. They are;
Arbitrage
Bankruptcies
Generals.
I am trying to expand into LBO's, but this is a year or two off into the future.
bullmarket
Exactly that, charts are a 50/50 proposition. If you look at tech/a results (closed trades) you will see almost exactly a 50/50 distribution.
If you look at the 50+ live trades I posted on reef when I daytraded, almost exactly 50/50, and I could go on and on, but you need to research it yourself.
Therefore, if it is a 50/50 coin flip, charts have no probability attached to them at all.............technical trading is about money management, or in tech's terms......expectancy which really is just mechanised money management, which is just the methodology that was adopted from professional gambling.
If support and resistance levels ALWAYS held, then I would agree. Unfortunately this is just not the case.
The reason for this is that true support levels are dictated by the value investors, who are not influenced by volatility and value levels change with the financial results of the business. Last years support, may not hold due to a deterioration within the fundamentals, and the value guys do not support the stock at that valuation..........the technicals look at the support line and plan an entry, but, its broken, and all the stops are triggered, end of support level.
For Technical traders they are mandatory as you are clueless as to what is really happening, and you are operating a momentum methodology, often highly leveraged, and you will without a shadow of a doubt blow up your account without a stoploss
With the plethora of "backtesting" software available, I'm not sure that paper trading is the most efficient way of building a strategy.
Where paper trading fails miserably, is in the cruciable of psychological torment.
tech/a
If we get to Adelaide, and there is no reason that we wouldn't, then we will definitely stop by and say hello. You'll need a bridging loan for dinner!!
I
Agreed, posting live trades consistently, as paper trades is certainly a way to reproduce a little of the angst that the market will impose, and is why those of us that have, and do, used it in the first place..........you must put yourself in the spotlight with nowhere to run and hide (jog in my case) and you will gradually become reasonably disciplined.......its still different with real money, but cash is cash.
jog on
d998
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Re: Beginner here...
ok no problem ducati
It looks like we agree in general but maybe disagree on subtleties.
I still believe that although charts cannot give guarantees, historical price action (support/resistance, trends) can give a probability of future price action - for the short term at least. I guess it just boils down to how well one interprets the data on a chart and it's a matter of each to their own on that one.
Some reputable trading authors have suggested that one should aim for a long term average of 2 winning trades out of 3....ie.....most likely overall, successful traders will experience many small winning trades cancelling out many small losing trades (assuming one is using efficient stop losses to preserve capital) with the occasional 3rd trade out of the 3 going for a reasonable run. The tricky bit is finding this 3rd trade opportunity. But all of this of course also depends on position sizing and other risk management strategies. Some traders will be better at it than others and hence more successful.
Bottom Line: I've met traders/chartists who have averaged 2 out of 3 winning trades over the long term, but they are few. Anecdotal evidence says that less than 10% of traders will be profitable (at least to any significant extent) in the long run, so imo using stop losses and other risk management strategies to preserve capital in losing trades is critical, especially for short term traders.
cheers
bullmarket
ok no problem ducati
It looks like we agree in general but maybe disagree on subtleties.
I still believe that although charts cannot give guarantees, historical price action (support/resistance, trends) can give a probability of future price action - for the short term at least. I guess it just boils down to how well one interprets the data on a chart and it's a matter of each to their own on that one.
Some reputable trading authors have suggested that one should aim for a long term average of 2 winning trades out of 3....ie.....most likely overall, successful traders will experience many small winning trades cancelling out many small losing trades (assuming one is using efficient stop losses to preserve capital) with the occasional 3rd trade out of the 3 going for a reasonable run. The tricky bit is finding this 3rd trade opportunity. But all of this of course also depends on position sizing and other risk management strategies. Some traders will be better at it than others and hence more successful.
Bottom Line: I've met traders/chartists who have averaged 2 out of 3 winning trades over the long term, but they are few. Anecdotal evidence says that less than 10% of traders will be profitable (at least to any significant extent) in the long run, so imo using stop losses and other risk management strategies to preserve capital in losing trades is critical, especially for short term traders.
cheers
bullmarket
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Re: Beginner here...
Hi Ducati and Bullmarket
In case you haven't noticed we have a very successful couple of technical analysists daytrading the spi every week. From my observations they do a lot better than 50/50 or 2 out of 3.
Cheers
Happytrader.
Hi Ducati and Bullmarket
In case you haven't noticed we have a very successful couple of technical analysists daytrading the spi every week. From my observations they do a lot better than 50/50 or 2 out of 3.
Cheers
Happytrader.
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Re: Beginner here...
no problem happytrader
then as long as they're not suffering losses elsewhere that aren't disclosed as well, they should be in the 10% that do ok in the long run.
That 2 out of 3 I mentioned is just one target that a trader could use. It's by no means a limit.
I'm not into derivatives, so good luck to them
cheers
bullmarket
no problem happytrader
then as long as they're not suffering losses elsewhere that aren't disclosed as well, they should be in the 10% that do ok in the long run.
That 2 out of 3 I mentioned is just one target that a trader could use. It's by no means a limit.
I'm not into derivatives, so good luck to them
cheers
bullmarket
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Re: Beginner here...
Tech,
So, using the XAO advance and decline as a basis for stopping out your portfolio? Is this what you mean?
Sounds like some interesting testing ahead regardless.
Tech,
So, using the XAO advance and decline as a basis for stopping out your portfolio? Is this what you mean?
Sounds like some interesting testing ahead regardless.
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Re: Beginner here...
I would say more professional!
It`s a business.
I would say more professional!
It`s a business.
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Re: Beginner here...
happytrader
Well without wanting to throw water on your fire, I have a couple of objections;
1....birthday wishes to the SPI is not a qualifiable trade, however correct it may be
2...Posting hindsight trades is unacceptable
Therefore, until demonstrated in real time, I shall continue to maintain that any form of technical analysis will over the longer time period, return approximately a 50/50 outcome.
Profitability, will remain firmly in the purview of robust money management execution.
jog on
d998
happytrader
Well without wanting to throw water on your fire, I have a couple of objections;
1....birthday wishes to the SPI is not a qualifiable trade, however correct it may be
2...Posting hindsight trades is unacceptable
Therefore, until demonstrated in real time, I shall continue to maintain that any form of technical analysis will over the longer time period, return approximately a 50/50 outcome.
Profitability, will remain firmly in the purview of robust money management execution.
jog on
d998
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: Beginner here...
Looking on with amusement, not in a condescending way at all, but just realising the fun Duc is having here.
There are a number of points I would love to wade in on, but I've become a concientious objector. As you guys have seen, Duc is relentless, and never concedes a point; that would take all the fun out of it.esok:
I havn't got the energy LOL
Looking on with amusement, not in a condescending way at all, but just realising the fun Duc is having here.
There are a number of points I would love to wade in on, but I've become a concientious objector. As you guys have seen, Duc is relentless, and never concedes a point; that would take all the fun out of it.
esok:I havn't got the energy LOL
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Re: Beginner here...
So be it Ducati!
I am very happy for you to maintain and live up to your 50/50 outcome.
Cheers
Happytrader
ducati916 said:
So be it Ducati!
I am very happy for you to maintain and live up to your 50/50 outcome.
Cheers
Happytrader
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: Beginner here...
Certaintly thats one consideration and as you know there are a number of indicators that can reference the A/D chart and form a basis of exit,
From price to formulas based upon price.
COLBY mentions and uses to great success A/D exits in his book "Encyclopedia of Technical Indicators"
This will get you thinking-----
To gain an edge these days I think we have to look out of the square and technically we can do that.
I'm currently working on composite charting techniques all based around better exits(Thats where the money is the exit end of the trade---most look at the other end---(the 50/50 arguement))
As an example.
I can make a composite out of my portfolio (Ie one chart representing performance just like a bar chart---open,close,high,low.(dont need volume))
I can make one of my universe of stocks Im trading from.
I can compare each to each and analyse each against each or against an index or an A/D chart etc etc.
Early days but results are suprising.
Wayne----Duc's no dummy as you know.
We both agree to disagree often and I like Duc's style particularly when he gets annoyed---his frustration is taken out by swallowing the nearest dictionary.
But his tenacity in arguement brings out some good points from both sides.
Snake Pliskin said:
Certaintly thats one consideration and as you know there are a number of indicators that can reference the A/D chart and form a basis of exit,
From price to formulas based upon price.
COLBY mentions and uses to great success A/D exits in his book "Encyclopedia of Technical Indicators"
This will get you thinking-----
To gain an edge these days I think we have to look out of the square and technically we can do that.
I'm currently working on composite charting techniques all based around better exits(Thats where the money is the exit end of the trade---most look at the other end---(the 50/50 arguement))
As an example.
I can make a composite out of my portfolio (Ie one chart representing performance just like a bar chart---open,close,high,low.(dont need volume))
I can make one of my universe of stocks Im trading from.
I can compare each to each and analyse each against each or against an index or an A/D chart etc etc.
Early days but results are suprising.
Wayne----Duc's no dummy as you know.
We both agree to disagree often and I like Duc's style particularly when he gets annoyed---his frustration is taken out by swallowing the nearest dictionary.
But his tenacity in arguement brings out some good points from both sides.
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Re: Beginner here...
Hi Ducati
no problem
As I said in an earlier post, we seem to agree there are no guarantees in technical analysis/charting and we just disagree on the subtleties on what can be achieved from it.
From what I have seen I still believe that a 2 out of 3 long term winning trades ratio is achievable and maybe even higher if one is really skillful and has a successful trading plan.
If you want to believe otherwise for whatever reasons, that is fine. I don't have a problem with that.
So we'll just have to agree to disagree on the subtleties and move on.
Good luck with your trading/investing.
bullmarket
Hi Ducati
ducati916 said:
no problem
As I said in an earlier post, we seem to agree there are no guarantees in technical analysis/charting and we just disagree on the subtleties on what can be achieved from it.
From what I have seen I still believe that a 2 out of 3 long term winning trades ratio is achievable and maybe even higher if one is really skillful and has a successful trading plan.
If you want to believe otherwise for whatever reasons, that is fine. I don't have a problem with that.
So we'll just have to agree to disagree on the subtleties and move on.
Good luck with your trading/investing.
bullmarket
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Re: Beginner here...
Hi Tasmanian,
One`s time frame for a hold is dictated by the market`s and stocks` characteristics. Risk to reward, stop losses and position sizing are factors that will be different for different stocks, unless you are equally positioning your holdings based on equal dollar amounts - and even that doesn`t determine your holding time. Here is a paradox: exiting a trade is known before you enter it. Hint: don`t look at a dollar figure.
What do you mean by backing yourself on a stock? Hoping?
Cheers
Snake
tasmanian said:
Hi Tasmanian,
One`s time frame for a hold is dictated by the market`s and stocks` characteristics. Risk to reward, stop losses and position sizing are factors that will be different for different stocks, unless you are equally positioning your holdings based on equal dollar amounts - and even that doesn`t determine your holding time. Here is a paradox: exiting a trade is known before you enter it.
Hint: don`t look at a dollar figure.What do you mean by backing yourself on a stock? Hoping?
Cheers
Snake
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Re: Beginner here...
Wayne,
I`m interested in what you have to say about the 50/50 thing.
Snake
wayneL said:Looking on with amusement, not in a condescending way at all, but just realising the fun Duc is having here.
There are a number of points I would love to wade in on, but I've become a concientious objector. As you guys have seen, Duc is relentless, and never concedes a point; that would take all the fun out of it.
I havn't got the energy LOL
Wayne,
I`m interested in what you have to say about the 50/50 thing.
Snake
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Re: Beginner here...
You could make a chart of the most popular stocks being shorted list to meld in there as well. Surely that needs to be taken into account to gauge real sentiment. If the interest in shorting is high as in a real bear market then that is to be expected, but in a bull trend what is this shorting interest doing? CFD`s are now here and changing the market as more and more get on. I think Macquarie has the largest list...not sure though.
tech/a said:
You could make a chart of the most popular stocks being shorted list to meld in there as well. Surely that needs to be taken into account to gauge real sentiment. If the interest in shorting is high as in a real bear market then that is to be expected, but in a bull trend what is this shorting interest doing? CFD`s are now here and changing the market as more and more get on. I think Macquarie has the largest list...not sure though.
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Re: Beginner here...
tech/a
I understand that you are approaching the analysis from a technical perspective, and that through extensive backtesting you have found that a technical entry provides an aggregate 50/50 outcome and therefore, have decided to examine the elements involved within the exit criteria.
Your existing methodology, as far as I am aware currently relies upon one or two trades returning a huge %, which leveraged provides a very satisfactory dollar return, while numerous small winners, offset numerous small losses.
Some of the smaller % winners, were larger % winners, but due to the exit criteria of the 180ema give back profit.
Two points.
Entries are an important criteria, and cannot be ignored.
In the current methodology of TT, entries have been marginalized, and thus cannot provide juice to the "numbers". To get the juice, you need to re-examine the whole issue of entries.
By tweeking the exits in TT, you run the risk of reducing the % return of the money trades. Will a "generalized exit" compensate you for this reduction in performance?
I suspect TT will have to redesigned in its entirety. That currently it does what it does about as efficiently as it can do.
enzo
Sorry, just can't adapt to Wayne;
Although we "might" cover some old ground, then again, we might not.
My thinking is constantly evolving, as I am sure is your own, thus, they may evolve new twists on old problems.
bullmarket
From a purely technical point of view, yes it is possible for certain gifted individuals, however, in aggregate you will never escape 50/50.
Now if you are talking about fundamentals, then I agree, 8/10 is the upper end of the performance curve, arbitrage is 10/10, so why waste your time with technicals, unless you are one of the statistical few.
jog on
d998
tech/a
I understand that you are approaching the analysis from a technical perspective, and that through extensive backtesting you have found that a technical entry provides an aggregate 50/50 outcome and therefore, have decided to examine the elements involved within the exit criteria.
Your existing methodology, as far as I am aware currently relies upon one or two trades returning a huge %, which leveraged provides a very satisfactory dollar return, while numerous small winners, offset numerous small losses.
Some of the smaller % winners, were larger % winners, but due to the exit criteria of the 180ema give back profit.
Two points.
Entries are an important criteria, and cannot be ignored.
In the current methodology of TT, entries have been marginalized, and thus cannot provide juice to the "numbers". To get the juice, you need to re-examine the whole issue of entries.
By tweeking the exits in TT, you run the risk of reducing the % return of the money trades. Will a "generalized exit" compensate you for this reduction in performance?
I suspect TT will have to redesigned in its entirety. That currently it does what it does about as efficiently as it can do.
enzo
Sorry, just can't adapt to Wayne;
Although we "might" cover some old ground, then again, we might not.
My thinking is constantly evolving, as I am sure is your own, thus, they may evolve new twists on old problems.
bullmarket
From a purely technical point of view, yes it is possible for certain gifted individuals, however, in aggregate you will never escape 50/50.
Now if you are talking about fundamentals, then I agree, 8/10 is the upper end of the performance curve, arbitrage is 10/10, so why waste your time with technicals, unless you are one of the statistical few.
jog on
d998
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