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Re: Beginner here...
sandrandave
I forgot to give the web address to the ASX free online courses earlier.
Good luck
sandrandave
I forgot to give the web address to the ASX free online courses earlier.
Good luck
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Re: Beginner here...
Have Just been on the ASX page for the free online courses.
And have just ordered Guppys book from ebay.
Also for the glossery of terms.. that is what I need!
zzkazu- our plan is to be a share trader, because I am a stay at home mum (and most likely wont be going back to work) , my job at home will be share trading to supplement hubbys income. Well that is the plan anyway. It sounds good in theory. I dont think that will be able to contemplate buying anything for about 6 months, so I have time on my hands.
Hubby is going the Peter Spann way of property investing and now he has heard that he has a shares book coming out (perhaps July/Aug) and he cant wait for his book, but in the meantime I will be finding out all I can about trading.
Now I have a bit more info thanks to you guys I can search around and find some answers. But if I cant find anything I will be asking!
Thanks for the head start!
Sandra
Have Just been on the ASX page for the free online courses.
And have just ordered Guppys book from ebay.
Also for the glossery of terms.. that is what I need!
zzkazu- our plan is to be a share trader, because I am a stay at home mum (and most likely wont be going back to work) , my job at home will be share trading to supplement hubbys income. Well that is the plan anyway. It sounds good in theory. I dont think that will be able to contemplate buying anything for about 6 months, so I have time on my hands.
Hubby is going the Peter Spann way of property investing and now he has heard that he has a shares book coming out (perhaps July/Aug) and he cant wait for his book,
but in the meantime I will be finding out all I can about trading.Now I have a bit more info thanks to you guys I can search around and find some answers. But if I cant find anything I will be asking!
Thanks for the head start!
Sandra
GreatPig
Pigs In Space
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Re: Beginner here...
Sandra,
If you take to technical analysis, at some stage you'll probably want to read Edwards & Magee's "The Technical Analysis of Stock Trends". It's something of a bible on chart patterns, although makes for rather dry and unexciting reading and I think is still quite expensive to buy.
I also found the Leon Wilson book pretty good as an overview of modern technical analysis and share trading as a business. Guppy's books are quite good, but I find them a little repetitive. He probably could have compressed all his books down into one moderate-sized volume if he'd cut out all the repetition - although why sell one book for $50 when you can sell five for $20 each
As Ducati said, survival is your first objective. If you see or get the Leon Wilson book, take a good read of his first couple of chapters, where he goes to some length to point out the chances of you not succeeding
I'll be interested to see the focus of Peter Spann's book. He said at a talk one time that he used options a lot, so I'm wondering if his book will be more about shares or options.
Cheers,
GP
Sandra,
If you take to technical analysis, at some stage you'll probably want to read Edwards & Magee's "The Technical Analysis of Stock Trends". It's something of a bible on chart patterns, although makes for rather dry and unexciting reading and I think is still quite expensive to buy.
I also found the Leon Wilson book pretty good as an overview of modern technical analysis and share trading as a business. Guppy's books are quite good, but I find them a little repetitive. He probably could have compressed all his books down into one moderate-sized volume if he'd cut out all the repetition - although why sell one book for $50 when you can sell five for $20 each
As Ducati said, survival is your first objective. If you see or get the Leon Wilson book, take a good read of his first couple of chapters, where he goes to some length to point out the chances of you not succeeding
I'll be interested to see the focus of Peter Spann's book. He said at a talk one time that he used options a lot, so I'm wondering if his book will be more about shares or options.
Cheers,
GP
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Re: Beginner here...
Hi Sandra
Welcome to the Forum
You might like to try this thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2369
Learning how to trade – an alternative to paper trading
Hi Sandra
Welcome to the Forum
You might like to try this thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2369
Learning how to trade – an alternative to paper trading
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Re: Beginner here...
BOOKS, WEBSITES, ONLINE LEARNING blah blah blah.
whatever happened to the taxi driver, office cleaner, overheard conversation on the train. all very good ways to learn what stocks are hot at the moment.
its a sure fire way to improve your cash flow - just ensure it flows your way, not the other way.
and the ramping within this forum can be interesting at times too.....hmmmmm!
BOOKS, WEBSITES, ONLINE LEARNING blah blah blah.
whatever happened to the taxi driver, office cleaner, overheard conversation on the train. all very good ways to learn what stocks are hot at the moment.
its a sure fire way to improve your cash flow - just ensure it flows your way, not the other way.
and the ramping within this forum can be interesting at times too.....hmmmmm!
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Re: Beginner here...
Hi Sandra,
There is a plethora of information and misinformation going around. Your job is to research like a frugal fruit bat and determine what is appropriate for you and your personal circumstances.
Hint: start posting questions on this forum in the beginners forum and we will answer you. Some answers may lead you astray but others will lead you in the right direction. "Just follow the money"....(those of you who have seen All the President`s men will know what that line means. It may also apply to the market, depending on your interpretation)
So come on and fire away with those questions.
Snake
sandrandave said:I have been trying to read thses forums and I have bought an investor magazine, but I cant for the life of me understand most of what they are talking about or the definitions they use!
Does it all just come to you over a matter of time and reading?
I have gathered that research is the key. And then some more research. I understand this may take a while and that is ok.
So is there a trading shares book for dummies or somehting along that line, website etc etc. I have searched on this forum for a list of definitions but I cant find anything.
Thanks in advance
Sandra
Hi Sandra,
There is a plethora of information and misinformation going around. Your job is to research like a frugal fruit bat and determine what is appropriate for you and your personal circumstances.
Hint: start posting questions on this forum in the beginners forum and we will answer you. Some answers may lead you astray but others will lead you in the right direction. "Just follow the money"....(those of you who have seen All the President`s men will know what that line means. It may also apply to the market, depending on your interpretation)
So come on and fire away with those questions.
Snake
Re: Beginner here...
Sandra,
An inexpensive intro to charting is available through incredible charts, yahoo finance, or fcharts - I started off with fundamentals but am a convert to technical analysis and these days use FChart Pro and TechA's formula and method and basically have a very good mechanical system that takes 90% of the angst out of trading.
Thank you, thank you Tech/A.
Mind you that never really is quite enough - thinking about options now.
Good luck but be warned the stock market can be addictive!
Emma
Sandra,
An inexpensive intro to charting is available through incredible charts, yahoo finance, or fcharts - I started off with fundamentals but am a convert to technical analysis and these days use FChart Pro and TechA's formula and method and basically have a very good mechanical system that takes 90% of the angst out of trading.
Thank you, thank you Tech/A.
Mind you that never really is quite enough - thinking about options now.
Good luck but be warned the stock market can be addictive!
Emma
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Re: Beginner here...
I see there a few tech analasysts here, what style is everyone else? Just curious that is all.
I see there a few tech analasysts here, what style is everyone else? Just curious that is all.
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Re: Beginner here...
Hi sandrandave
I'm retired and I am an investor whose number 1 priority is income nowadays.
I use fundamental analysis to determine whether a company (restricted to ASX200 companies) is worth following and I then use technical analysis to help determine buy/sell points
cheers
bullmarket
Hi sandrandave
sandrandave said:
I'm retired and I am an investor whose number 1 priority is income nowadays.
I use fundamental analysis to determine whether a company (restricted to ASX200 companies) is worth following and I then use technical analysis to help determine buy/sell points
cheers
bullmarket
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Re: Beginner here...
Perhaps we can make the thread that dutchie started a stickie? It has some good info for beginners on there.
Perhaps we can make the thread that dutchie started a stickie? It has some good info for beginners on there.
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Re: Beginner here...
emma
Just an aside on TechTrader, it is in essence a tweak on the old Turtle system. Now in a bullmarket, it works well.(Unleveraged returns @ 9% compounded over 3yrs)
Whether it will work in a Bear market, is currently debateable. The Turtle system most certainly did not, eventually being abandoned with horrifying losses.
If you had difficulty trading the common, what suggests to you that you can trade a leveraged derivative, with potential (in market dislocates) spreads that will kill you. Options are very specialised securities. Not only must you juggle derivative pricing, but price time in addition
Why did you give up on the fundamentals?
jog on
d998
emma
Just an aside on TechTrader, it is in essence a tweak on the old Turtle system. Now in a bullmarket, it works well.(Unleveraged returns @ 9% compounded over 3yrs)
Whether it will work in a Bear market, is currently debateable. The Turtle system most certainly did not, eventually being abandoned with horrifying losses.
If you had difficulty trading the common, what suggests to you that you can trade a leveraged derivative, with potential (in market dislocates) spreads that will kill you. Options are very specialised securities. Not only must you juggle derivative pricing, but price time in addition
Why did you give up on the fundamentals?
jog on
d998
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: Beginner here...
Its is?
Lets see Unleveraged 9% compounding.
Starting capital $30000
Year 1 = $32700
Year 2 = $35643
Year 3 = $38850
Hmm
Lets try Leveraged 2.5:1 (Approx) or $100K
Year 1 = $109000
Year 2 = $118810
Year 3 = $129502
Hmm again
Current balance around $300K.
I fully expect the method to perform well in a bullmarket its designed to trade long.
I expect it to perform poorly in a bear market as thats not what its designed to trade.
Its never been presented as "The mother of all methods" and if anyone cares to read the Summary of the method You'll see the sole reason for the works to be published.
I've actually been to seminars where I once saw 16 people shell out $14000 each for a blackbox(undisclosed)options trading method which promised returns worse than those achieved by this simple method.
Yet its success(Techtrader) is seen as a curiosity,with 100s I'm sure sitting patiently on the side for a collapse.
Those of us that have traded what we have seen will even after a collapse still be happily profitable,while many continue to postulate and search for the "Holy Grail".
ducati916 said:
Its is?
Lets see Unleveraged 9% compounding.
Starting capital $30000
Year 1 = $32700
Year 2 = $35643
Year 3 = $38850
Hmm
Lets try Leveraged 2.5:1 (Approx) or $100K
Year 1 = $109000
Year 2 = $118810
Year 3 = $129502
Hmm again
Current balance around $300K.
I fully expect the method to perform well in a bullmarket its designed to trade long.
I expect it to perform poorly in a bear market as thats not what its designed to trade.
Its never been presented as "The mother of all methods" and if anyone cares to read the Summary of the method You'll see the sole reason for the works to be published.
I've actually been to seminars where I once saw 16 people shell out $14000 each for a blackbox(undisclosed)options trading method which promised returns worse than those achieved by this simple method.
Yet its success(Techtrader) is seen as a curiosity,with 100s I'm sure sitting patiently on the side for a collapse.
Those of us that have traded what we have seen will even after a collapse still be happily profitable,while many continue to postulate and search for the "Holy Grail".
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Re: Beginner here...
tech/a
The current value of TechTrader is circa $300K
That is Open value, not closed therefore, in a severe market break that paper profit could reduce quite substantially, as the exit criteria is a 180ema.
Leverage cuts both ways.
The true measure of any methodology is in the unleveraged returns.
If you have a methodology that returns 50% compounded unleveraged, then it can be leveraged for an increase in absolute dollar terms.
Talking in dollar terms, while far more exciting, tends to obscure the true profitability or lack thereof.
The two important variables are;
The % of winning trades
Unleveraged % return
Thats fair enough, and I know you have always been upfront about this.
The problem arises in that "new traders" sometimes do not perform due diligence, and adopt methodologies without a comprehensive understanding, and really have difficulty in differentiating a Bull market from a Bear market at turning points.
Agreed, the nonsense promulgated is endless.
jog on
d998
tech/a
The current value of TechTrader is circa $300K
That is Open value, not closed therefore, in a severe market break that paper profit could reduce quite substantially, as the exit criteria is a 180ema.
Leverage cuts both ways.
The true measure of any methodology is in the unleveraged returns.
If you have a methodology that returns 50% compounded unleveraged, then it can be leveraged for an increase in absolute dollar terms.
Talking in dollar terms, while far more exciting, tends to obscure the true profitability or lack thereof.
The two important variables are;
The % of winning trades
Unleveraged % return
Thats fair enough, and I know you have always been upfront about this.
The problem arises in that "new traders" sometimes do not perform due diligence, and adopt methodologies without a comprehensive understanding, and really have difficulty in differentiating a Bull market from a Bear market at turning points.
Agreed, the nonsense promulgated is endless.
jog on
d998
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: Beginner here...
Duc.
If I closed today then there would be NOW $300K If next week its $200k or $400K then that will be realised profit NOW.
If I bought a home in 1997 for $100K and Today its valued at $300K yet I dont have it its open equity then why do banks allow me to use that equity to buy more realestate and my Margin lender allows me more or larger positions?
Its a valid figure.
As for % winners--this can be argued as a way of increasing profit,techtrader is designed around reward to risk so with less winners it has much bigger winners than losers as the average hold of winning trades is about a year.
Again the benifit of over 1000 posts on the topic from yourself and others gives beginners the grounding they should seek.
All the "Number" are there for those interested to learn,pour over,digest,and use in their own circumstances if they wish.
run Duc run.
Duc.
If I closed today then there would be NOW $300K If next week its $200k or $400K then that will be realised profit NOW.
If I bought a home in 1997 for $100K and Today its valued at $300K yet I dont have it its open equity then why do banks allow me to use that equity to buy more realestate and my Margin lender allows me more or larger positions?
Its a valid figure.
As for % winners--this can be argued as a way of increasing profit,techtrader is designed around reward to risk so with less winners it has much bigger winners than losers as the average hold of winning trades is about a year.
Again the benifit of over 1000 posts on the topic from yourself and others gives beginners the grounding they should seek.
All the "Number" are there for those interested to learn,pour over,digest,and use in their own circumstances if they wish.
run Duc run.
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Re: Beginner here...
tech/a
Of course, but you are then breaking the rules of your methodology. The whole advantage of a mechanical system resides only in shielding you from the emotional trauma of trading, and making poor decisions under pressure.
Therefore, if you take a discretionary exit today, you might as well junk TT and return to a discretionary methodology. As that I doubt will happen, you are mandated to exit at the fall through the 180ema on a close. That represents a % fall, that due to the leverage represents X amount of dollars.
Come on tech/a margin lending is the safest form of lending to a bank that there is, they control the assets, and if they fall below the LVR, they issue a margin call, if not acted upon, they sell you out. they have the best of both worlds, good interest return, complete safety........they love it.
If they actually read through it all. Unfortunately the stock market is considered easy money, work from home, just this thread reiterates that the Bull market is attracting novices who are attracted to the seemingly easy returns...........too late, they missed the boat, it left three years ago on the ASX, conditions will become more difficult as volatility starts to ratchet up a few notches.
Nah, fat bastards like me need to go steady,
jog on
d998
tech/a
Of course, but you are then breaking the rules of your methodology. The whole advantage of a mechanical system resides only in shielding you from the emotional trauma of trading, and making poor decisions under pressure.
Therefore, if you take a discretionary exit today, you might as well junk TT and return to a discretionary methodology. As that I doubt will happen, you are mandated to exit at the fall through the 180ema on a close. That represents a % fall, that due to the leverage represents X amount of dollars.
Come on tech/a margin lending is the safest form of lending to a bank that there is, they control the assets, and if they fall below the LVR, they issue a margin call, if not acted upon, they sell you out. they have the best of both worlds, good interest return, complete safety........they love it.
If they actually read through it all. Unfortunately the stock market is considered easy money, work from home, just this thread reiterates that the Bull market is attracting novices who are attracted to the seemingly easy returns...........too late, they missed the boat, it left three years ago on the ASX, conditions will become more difficult as volatility starts to ratchet up a few notches.
Nah, fat bastards like me need to go steady,
jog on
d998
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Re: Beginner here...
Welcome back Tech.
Tech what is your rationale for using a 180 day m/a?
And, have you tried it with CFD`s yet?
Welcome back Tech.
Tech what is your rationale for using a 180 day m/a?
And, have you tried it with CFD`s yet?
Re: Beginner here...
If 180 EMA is used as an exit, I think that ‘crash exit value’ could be calculated using 180 EMA exit.
Of course more calculations and even this one will not prevent total loss of all capital if all of the sudden stock market is suspended indefinitely.
But, just a suggestion.
Maybe there is need to think of panic selling exit.
What I mean is ,if for example 25% of all stocks hit stop all of the sudden, all positions are closed or something of this nature, kind of contingency exit to maximise retained profit.
If 180 EMA is used as an exit, I think that ‘crash exit value’ could be calculated using 180 EMA exit.
Of course more calculations and even this one will not prevent total loss of all capital if all of the sudden stock market is suspended indefinitely.
But, just a suggestion.
Maybe there is need to think of panic selling exit.
What I mean is ,if for example 25% of all stocks hit stop all of the sudden, all positions are closed or something of this nature, kind of contingency exit to maximise retained profit.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: Beginner here...
Duc.
Basically we are on the same page and I agree with some of what you say.
I could however sell today to do something else with my funds other than continue with trading the ASX,I maybe so blown away with results on another bourse that I move the method there.
I certaintly agree re the psychology and has proved more that profitable on many occasion when the head said sell---although last April in reallife the head won as I was going to be O/S without the portfolio under my control,in the end it cost me a packet---due mainly to capital gains tax.
However back on track again.
Banks always have the control margin or house loan,dont make the payments and you'll lose a house!---but still retain surplus funds if any!
Snake.
For this method a 180 day EMA of the low returned the best numbers,I tried many ATR,Bollinger,Various exotic forula's including Allan Hulls but the 180 remained the best exit with best numbers,i know others have adopted other ideas,I myself am currently looking at an exit based upon the XAO,that is the XAO will trigger the sell not the stock,I'm also in need of some additions to Tradesim which will help test the method as currently it cannot sell a whole portfolio on an outside influence and then re buy it when positive conditions are again met.
CFD's well thats a topic on itself---not CFD's but the best use of leverage,most people dont understand how and most of all how to calculate best leverage practice.Many see it as a very dirty topic and sure used blindly by the undercapitalised and you could face ruin very quickly.
T/T used to be labelled a trading Snail until compounding and leverage took hold.
Not withstanding Duc's comments $30K to $300K aint all that bad.
Happy.
Good comments and yes there are a million ways to tinker with a method.
wether your ideas come up with better numbers I dont know.I havent and probably never will try or even think of all the various possibilities let alone implement them.
Incedently the best method I have is a weekly one which has a better return/and numbers than the "snail".
Duc somehow a Fat Duc on a Ducati just doesnt match my mental picture of you---pity we missed dinner when over there last year.
Duc.
Basically we are on the same page and I agree with some of what you say.
I could however sell today to do something else with my funds other than continue with trading the ASX,I maybe so blown away with results on another bourse that I move the method there.
I certaintly agree re the psychology and has proved more that profitable on many occasion when the head said sell---although last April in reallife the head won as I was going to be O/S without the portfolio under my control,in the end it cost me a packet---due mainly to capital gains tax.
However back on track again.
Banks always have the control margin or house loan,dont make the payments and you'll lose a house!---but still retain surplus funds if any!
Snake.
For this method a 180 day EMA of the low returned the best numbers,I tried many ATR,Bollinger,Various exotic forula's including Allan Hulls but the 180 remained the best exit with best numbers,i know others have adopted other ideas,I myself am currently looking at an exit based upon the XAO,that is the XAO will trigger the sell not the stock,I'm also in need of some additions to Tradesim which will help test the method as currently it cannot sell a whole portfolio on an outside influence and then re buy it when positive conditions are again met.
CFD's well thats a topic on itself---not CFD's but the best use of leverage,most people dont understand how and most of all how to calculate best leverage practice.Many see it as a very dirty topic and sure used blindly by the undercapitalised and you could face ruin very quickly.
T/T used to be labelled a trading Snail until compounding and leverage took hold.
Not withstanding Duc's comments $30K to $300K aint all that bad.
Happy.
Good comments and yes there are a million ways to tinker with a method.
wether your ideas come up with better numbers I dont know.I havent and probably never will try or even think of all the various possibilities let alone implement them.
Incedently the best method I have is a weekly one which has a better return/and numbers than the "snail".
Duc somehow a Fat Duc on a Ducati just doesnt match my mental picture of you---pity we missed dinner when over there last year.
Re: Beginner here...
Duc
Firstly good to see an engaged discussion with you and Tech A.
Why did I give up on fundamentals? - because I became seduced by the argument that "it's all in the charts anyway" and I felt that if it wasn't - it probably wasn't easy to find in the figures unless you have financial skills beyond mine.
Are you suggesting that if one uses a mechanical system - this is the sign of an incompetent trader?
I don't for one moment think that I can trade options but think it would be interesting to try to learn that language, paper trade and then see.
Its all about what one is trading for, isn't it?
Why am I trading? It's not really about money - I'm retired and comfortable but the stock market engages me in way that provides me with a world view that I do not get elsewhere and the successes and failures spur me on. I don't ever think I'll be massively successful because I'm ambivalent about wealth - so it really doesn't matter enough
Duc
Firstly good to see an engaged discussion with you and Tech A.
Why did I give up on fundamentals? - because I became seduced by the argument that "it's all in the charts anyway" and I felt that if it wasn't - it probably wasn't easy to find in the figures unless you have financial skills beyond mine.
Are you suggesting that if one uses a mechanical system - this is the sign of an incompetent trader?
I don't for one moment think that I can trade options but think it would be interesting to try to learn that language, paper trade and then see.
Its all about what one is trading for, isn't it?
Why am I trading? It's not really about money - I'm retired and comfortable but the stock market engages me in way that provides me with a world view that I do not get elsewhere and the successes and failures spur me on. I don't ever think I'll be massively successful because I'm ambivalent about wealth - so it really doesn't matter enough
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