Haunting's economics blog

[haunting]

I am feeling flabbergasted... Krudd is doing everything wrong at this point. There's now every chance that Stern Hu will be incarcerated for a long time with this Chinese reaction.

1) Instead of seeking help from a "friend" of China and going the quiet softly "Chinese" approach, Krudd instead went to the USA, asking them for help to pile on more pressure on China. And Smith did one better to raise the matter further afield, he repeated the same "noise" (according to the Chinese) in Egypt.

Judging by the Chinese reaction, does anyone think this tack has worked? Did China react as if they are taking note of the "international pressure"? Not really, not how I see it anyway. It only serves to toughen up the Chinese stance, pushing them to make it unequivocally clear to the world that when come to matter involving their "sovereign judiciary independence", they won't be pushed around.

This is 2009 and not the 1980, for goodness sake... can someone tell Krudd or the USA please?

2) Even on moral ground... still remember the former defence minister, Fitzgibbons? Anyone? He walked from his post, and his sin was? Yes, he accepted some free gifts and free trips and the people here didn't like it.

Over in China, Stern Hu and his staffs were caught engaging in activities that are deemed too unacceptable even by the Chinese standard, why should/would the reaction be any difference here?

Let's be fair dinkum about this whole saga.

Playing tough against China is not going to work. For that matter, this is the second time the Chinese are giving a similar warning, that the the actions thus far from the Aussie govt are working against "Australia's interest". I think Krudd should take note and change tack.

Mr Qin said Australia's remarks "cannot change the objective facts, nor can it have influence on the relevant Chinese authorities which are dealing with the case according to our law".

But he also underlined the perilous nature of China's legal system, treating as fact the allegations levelled against Mr Hu and his three staff. "The actions of the Rio Tinto staff have caused losses to China and China's interests," he said. "I believe Stern Hu and Rio Tinto are fully aware of this."

Mr Qin warned that Australian advocacy for Mr Hu would backfire. "We're firmly opposed to anyone deliberately stirring up this matter," he said. "This is not in accordance with the interests of the Australian side."

Link here.

 

[haunting]

He further says... if you screw with a screw, be prepared when it screws you back...

Oops! My bad. This is crude. Of course he dind't say such thing.

But he did say quite a few things:

* China's period as student is over and now they want to be an equal partner
* China's assertion that Hu Jintao did not personally approve the arrest of Stern Hu is an important signal from China and leaves the door open for discussion
* The Stern Hu incident is a China/Australia matter and isn't even registering in the top items in US and Chinese news
* He concedes China may be trying to send messages to other, larger trading partners, such as the US
* The state-owned enterprises will continue to be very aggressive, with the backing of the Chinese government.

** but his view is not what I want to talk about, it's the interviewers, these big time journos and their attitude and their questions and their "still living in the 80s" kind of view of the world that is troubling me.

Because they are supposed to be very smart and experienced people, the media brains, and yet they seemed to be interested only in negative news about China, and got really disappointed when they were told there ain't anything really bad is gonna happened to China and that the USA ain't gonna be the #1 any more... to really get these folks to be a little open minded and yet with a title such as this "Full Marx for China" that one can detect the diehard nature of these brains.

.. to maintain an open mind and comment objectively seem to be a big ask from these people in this site. Where's the journalistic training they so pride themselves on?

 

[haunting]

Hu row a small bump in China journey

THE detention of Stern Hu has brought into question a lot of assumptions regarding our trade relationship with China. Many see the arrest of Hu as retaliation for Rio's rejection of the Chinalco offer, as well as a reaction to Australian Government dealings more generally with Chinese investment in Australia. Some question whether the Australia-China relationship will be permanently damaged by this affair.

In my view this affair will turn out to be a small bump on the long road to China's full integration into the world economy through trade and investment. Part of that will be a continuing fruitful and prosperous trade and investment relationship with Australia.

China's continuing economic growth, as well as social and political development, is very important to us and to reverse course on our trade and investment relationship is simply not possible.

It is all very well to point to China's murkiness with regard to the arrest of Hu and to the murkiness surrounding the iron ore trade and China's state-owned enterprises. But our Foreign Investment Review Board processes would seem just as murky to outsiders. One thing that seems clear is that our foreign investment rules need to be more transparent... more.

 

[haunting]

Worth a read, click me!

The iron ore trade became a national humiliation for China. Chu Tian wrote on the front page of this week's Chinese Melbourne Daily: "First, Australia played China as a monkey [on the Chinalco investment]. Second, when iron ore prices boomed, it clasped China's neck and took a big bite." Australia, Chu said, failed to give a hint of concession, and events unfolded inevitably.

Chu said China's hardline actions will be seen in Beijing to have collateral benefits.

"The Government's detention of Hu and the other three is more for deterrence and warning than for punishment," he wrote. "This is killing four birds with one stone: Kevin Rudd, Rio, the overseas Chinese who betray China's interests, and senior executives at state-owned enterprises."

** thought this observation is quite spot on. Frankly this is just the beginning of more changes to come in China, vis-a-vis their various commodity market. Iron ore is just one of the metals that is in a "mess" from the Chinese context. The others like copper, zinc, nickel, etc are probably in a bigger mess. Once the Chinese has tidied up the iron ore market, I won't be surprised at all to read about their next move onto the other metal markets, with copper within their aim.

All these changes will be on their way without a doubt, which brings up the question of BHP/RIO's recent position - they should expect the Chinese is watching them in every move and they should expect the Chinese retaliation. For those who are still living in the past, as reflected by the many many news/market journos and their rear-mirrored-views, big cyclical profits as in the past 4 years will be a thing of the past.

The major factor behind a runaway rise in commodity is the gross imbalance between its supply and demand, coupled with acute timing factor, the spike in price should be treated as an exception instead of treating it as a rule. The super cycle will continue with a gradual consistent rise instead of a parabolic acceleration.

The last 5 years probably is a good example of why a parabolic rise is not desirable as it clearly illustrates the pain introduced as a result of the bursting of the bubble. Right now the job loss rate is closer to 8% than the reported 6% in my view. With potentially more to come if the global economy does not recover in time.

It's much better to see a consistent rise of 10-15% per year for the next 10 years instead of 50% in the next 5 years follow by -50% or more in the next 5 - it's just too painful for everyone.

Going for broke or going for a winner take all strategy in my view is the worst of all possible strategies BHP/Rio could take. Cornering the market would only invite the Chinese retaliation and pushing them harder to seek alternatives. It will never bring back a lot of dole for Australia because any huge short term gain will eventually be eroded or evened out in the long run, once the Chinese have tidied up their house and brought forth their new production (the recent new IO find in Northern China is rumoured to be ready for production in 2015). - that's when BHP/Rio are likely to face the possibility of being a loser and losing all their advantages - with a disastrous outcome for Australia, and bad news for everyone.

That's one future outcome I am fearing, but then, and as usual, no one really cares a hood since it is so far and too far ahead. Who really cares if there's 5 years of good time ahead?

We can't be worse off than the American, can we?

...so far they have already spent and sold their next couple of generations' total income and saving and that don't seem to bother them one bit. Why would we here be bothered by something that has yet happened?

Let's party!

 

[haunting]

The cracks in China's success need global glue

ANU economics professor Ross Garnaut told the forum that China's fiscal stimulus had boosted the economy by 3 per cent, but its monetary expansion via bank credit had provided a 10 per cent boost.

"There was a lot of pent-up investment demand, which came roaring back."

He said the global banking system could no longer smoothly cover huge trade surpluses in Asia and huge deficits in the West, so Asians would have to spend more and Westerners save more.

That transition, he said, would be easier for China and the rest of Asia, than for the West.

"And for Australia, turning its back on direct foreign investment from China will force it to make a bigger adjustment than would otherwise have been the case. Other countries are not taking the same attitude as us."

Professor Garnaut said "current tensions in the resources trade (with China) should get us all thinking".

Similar issues, he said, dominated Australia's relationship with Japan earlier, despite "the lots we have in common".

"It should have been a much richer relationship. So far, the China relationship has been more diverse. But there is some danger that these tensions will come to dominate perspectives on both sides," he said.

"And in this case, the initiatives on monopolisation have come more from our side. We have to think hard about structural arrangements to prevent this being the main focus of the relationship."

The best answer, he said, would be "the development of a Shanghai commodity market as a place for pricing northeast Asian minerals, instead of so much hanging off a single negotiation every year"...

"Monopolisation" - I bet not many will agree with Prof G, and if you don't believe me, just check out the Aussie media.. almost 80-90% of them journos are talking as if China is the greatest enemy of Australia of all time without giving a second thought that this "evil nation" provides bulk of the "income" to this country. This is probably one country in this world that treats its biggest customer with contempt and constantly wanting to denigrate their system, their leaders and their people, based on impression one gets the media, of course.

Is Australia digging its own grave? Probably not because China is pragmatic enough, and there're enough people in Australia sensible enough to know cooperation is way better than confrontation. In a confrontation between China and Australia economically, the result is quite obvious, Australia will walk off second best.

If you find this hard to believe or accept, just ask yourself this simple question - is your customer always right? It's that simple!

Until and unless Australia or the big miners like Rio/BHP start to accept there's a need to cooperate with China, there's a need to work out a solution that provides some kind of Win-Win outcome, Australia is and will always be facing the threat of losing its biggest customer and by default plunging its economy into a serious recession.

This is the reality. Chauvinistic talks such as those you read in this forum will never carry the day. It's bread and butter every one wants. It's your/our children we care about and their future we want to ensure and this could only come about with a good trade relationship with China. One that builds on cooperation instead of confrontation.

If you find it hard to accept what China has done with the IO negotiation, let me explains - it boils down to this - Rio/BHP wants to continue their dominance in the IO trades to China and they want to continue their last 4 years' dream run with IO price rising by 40-50% on an annual basis. Hence they are doing everything within their disposal to "win" the price negotiation.

The Chinese, after 4 years of runaway IO prices (and with other commodities) with a resultant inflation rate nearing 8%, they are fearful of such history repeating because that effectively will put their economy backward, ruining their stimulus plan.

The conflict is this simple and before you accuse me of being bias, take a moment to think, to consider the whole situation because this is what the Chinese are thinking and they are acting on their fear and their thought. You disagree? Fine, make a lot of noise and go tell the Chinese to FO but it won't make the matter go away. The Aussie economy is still in a dire straits and it needs the Chinese market. And it needs the Chinese market in the next 20 or 30 years because the only growing market for commodities right now is China. Until India is ready, Australia doesn't have a choice but to learn to deal with China, no matter how "sh**" she feels.

Get a grip with reality. China is like an elephant to Australia. For that matter, it is an elephant to every country in this world, including the USA, Russia and UK or EU. It needs to be handled with care and the only way to get the better out of it is through cooperation and not confrontation. Use your wits and not your brawn and learn to play a game that will make sure there's a Win-Win outcome and not one that is Win-Lose, it is an impossibility for Australia to be the ultimate winner in an economic contest with China. The best we can get out of it is a hopeful Win-Win where both sides are feeling they are winning and are actually benefiting from the exchange.

 

[haunting]

A follow up on the economic front...

** just think this way, 2008 probably is the peak year of the commodity super cycle, one can relate that to climbing a mountain - after reaching the summit, there's only one way to go - down. The question remains is how much "down". If China is still the saviour to this lucky country and if she could still live up to her name, let's hope the downward decent would stop at one third, or to half way, giving Australia economy a good chance to "outperform" the rest of the Anglo Saxon economies in the next 20, or even 50 years.

 

[haunting]

Foreign companies bribe their way into China... more

** realistically and pragmatically speaking, bribe is like the grease that keeps the machinery functioning smoothly, without which, to get business done could be extremely slow and painful. The trick here is not to get caught... but, after saying all these, that does not mean I am "promoting" or condoning corrupt business practices. :

Generally one can regard corruption in a developing country as a reflection/result of the low/poor remuneration the local government is paying their civil servants. It's very hard for the govt officials who are earning a pittance to process or approve contracts with value up to millions or billions whilst their efforts and contributions are not recognised or rewarded. Repeat this tens or hundreds of time, it becomes a big ask to demand such mere mortals to rise above their normal call of duty - not many can refuse the temptation of getting their "fair share" of the cake... don't believe me? Just ask those few Qland policemen!

Back in the 70's the Senior Minister of the Current Singapore govt, Harry KY Lee was wise enough to make a move to tackle the corruption (and brain drain to the private sector) in his govt - he raised the pay of all the civil servants, including the govt functional ministers to a pay level equivalent to the private sector and topped it by a further 15% (I think), depending on individual qualification and experience... with the genius of that single stroke, corruption was almost eradicated in Singapore over night.

As of today, Singapore is one of the "cleanest" govt in the world, due to the highly paid civil servant and a very severe punishment awaiting those who are tempted.

Until China can afford what the Singapore govt has done years ago and until they have reshaped their judiciary system, those foreign business entities who are seeking fortunes in China will have to learn to survive the corrupt jungle over there. For any company that is operating in China, let's be frank, if you hear them telling you they are all above board and are totally innocent... well, let's just put it another way - do you believe it - if a fly tells you it doesn't really like the taste of "****"?

Sorry for the crudeness, but frankly, I much prefer to listen to an "honest corrupt business man forced by the situation" than an outright liar.

There's another news I read from Singapore, it seems if Stern Hu were found to be involved in corrupt practices in China, some US enforcement organisation may want to, or have to investigate Rio's business practice in China. Don't know how much or how valid is this view, but, the news was quoting the recent corruption case of Siemens in China.

Here are some links, better still, you do your own google search...

Siemens to pay $100 mln to fight corruption as part of World Bank settlement

Germany’s Siemens to pay euro75M to combat corruption

 

[haunting]

Aussie Pete is living a very interesting life and through him, you can get a glimpse of life and living in the other part of the world...

Stumbled on his blog this morning, gotta say there's much to learn from him, especially from his blog on cross cultural experience.

Check him out here, here and here.

 

[haunting]

Kicking Out Rio: China's Killer Strategy in Breaking the Iron Miners' Collusion

Trace back to my other blog on Rio

** The Europeans conquered and colonised the Far East and the New World through a very simple strategy - divide and conquer to weaken the native resistance to their rules. Now it seems the same strategy is being suggested to the Chinese, ie, divide and conquer the IO producers, with the "under-class" target firmly aiming in Rio's direction...

... I guess Rio should expect this since even a simpleton such as moi can see it coming long time ago. Luckily this kind of talk is still in its infancy, there's still time provided someone, or Rio, starts taking action to remedy the deteriorating relationship before it gets completely out of hand.

The bottom line is quite clear here... and it's not the time to play tough guy. Sanity should prevail... not ego.

 

[haunting]

Private sector investment set to fall, expert says

Access Economics' latest investment monitor says the value of projects underway or in planning in the June quarter was more than $230 billion.

That is a rise of $6.9 billion on the previous quarter but a reduction of $12.2 billion over the past year.

** from memory, Morgan Stanley is expecting a 12% fall in capex this year, not sure if they have revised their numbers. In any case, there's a solution and it lies in the Chinese Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF), which are currently being instructed to "go out", invest and prosper. That's a global move by the Chinese govt to "hedge" their exposure to the US$ and it's real money, that is, if you don't mind to receive some "useless" US$ from them. By today's rate, it's worth about AUD1.215...

So again, it boils down to this very unpleasant thought for Australia - money, jobs, prosperity and a good life vs principles, ideology, loyalty and eating less... at some point every Australian will have to decide on this, in the next two elections I reckon.

 

[haunting]

Loan losses on US commercial property rise toward record levels

** WDC came to my mind almost immediately, I reckon there is more write off to come, in addition to raise more capital.

In a different tangent, this news is probably one of the clearest signals the market needs to know - that the banks are not out of the sin bin yet. Once the current rush for their "cheap equity" is over, be prepared for the mad rush to the other direction when sanity returns. How much the market is willing to give back will set up the foundation for the year end second wave of rally, if there's one. jmv.

 

[haunting]

pointed questions in private...

I promise, I promise...

** a glimpse of future?

President Barack Obama opened Monday's discussions by declaring that the United States sought a new era of "cooperation, not confrontation" with China and that management of the U.S.-China relationship would be a major factor in defining the history of the 21st century.
...
...to reassure China that the U.S. will not let deficits or inflation jeopardize the value of Chinese investments.
...
...the United States has a plan to bring the deficit down once the economic crisis has been resolved. They said Bernanke discussed the Fed's exit strategy from the central bank's current period of extraordinary monetary easing, emphasizing that the Fed was being careful to guard against future inflation...
...
"We sincerely hope the U.S. fiscal deficit will be reduced, year after year," Assistant Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao told reporters after the Monday talks had ended.

** the underlined texts I think they do mean something. The US will ease QE once their econ is stabilised, but without an objective or clarification on what they meant by a stabilised economy... but this soothing sound is probably all they can give. On the other hand, the Chinese are telling the American what they are going to do, they are going to measure the American's "soothing sound" by an objective measure - they want to see a declining fiscal deficit.

From Bloomberg report...

The U.S. will ensure a “sustainable” deficit by 2013, Geithner said...
...
Obama said in a speech opening the meetings he wants to engage China in cooperation on a range of issues, beyond acting together to stimulate a global economic recovery.

“We must also be united in preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon,” Obama said. He cited nuclear proliferation, terrorism, piracy, global pandemics, climate change and civil war as other common threats facing the two countries. In her sessions, Clinton addressed both the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs.

** not so sure about the Iran nuclear program because this is not in China's interest and they need Iran to be on their side. In addition, it's the Russian that is helping Iran in their nuclear ambition, not China, can't see how the Chinese can help unless the US wants China to stop trading with Iran.

... and 2013! Yes man, that's gonna take that long for the US and the world to recover, I think it's reasonable. But I personally would cut that short by one year, make it 2012 just so I can run one year ahead of everyone... to give meself a 12-mth handicap.

 

[haunting]

Read about it.. click me!

Australia's foreign investment regime has a national interest test -- in fact that is its only test. Foreign investment applications must be approved unless they are found to be contrary to the national interest, and that decision is the responsibility of the federal treasurer. The FIRB makes recommendations but it is only an advisory body, and treasurers can, and have in the past, gone against recommendations of the board.

The foreign investment legislation contains no definition of the national interest. It is whatever the treasurer of the day decides it is on applications before him.

That can lead to contradictory decisions, creating uncertainty among overseas investors...

** it is more than a necessity to review FIRB because in the next few years, bulk of the FDI coming into this country, especially in the mining sector will be from the Chinese SWF, which is seen by a large section of the Australian population to be a direct arm of the Chinese state and by this definition and fear, any Australian assets sold would translate into selling out Australian interest to the China... this will be a political nightmare for both major parties because without the Chinese FDI/SWF, the mining sector will be taking a big hit, especially in the low end of the sector where funds are likely to become expensive or "extinct" - the impact on job will make a big dent on the national economy, that's a guarantee.

The earlier they begin work on FIRB rules, the more transparent they make it to outside interest, the better. It's in Australia's interest to get this done expediently as time is running out fast, and when all the signs are indicating the global econ recovery will not happen just yet, and with a budget deficit of 200b starting down the current govt, I am quite sure they want and need all the help they could get to alleviate this financial burden asap... before the next election!

 

[haunting]

China packs its bags...

As Australians we pride ourselves in not being racist, but the Chinese say we are racist – and when it comes to visa requirements there is no other way to describe us. I understand that Australia does not want to be flooded with millions of illegal migrants who come here as tourists, but we are dealing with an enormous market and a country that is going to play a much larger role in world affairs.

The visa requirements for Chinese tourists need to be revised and made much simpler. Not only will that make it easier for the Chinese to come here, but it will show them what Australia is all about.

Remember that behind the Obama doctrine, there is a swing of power to China. We simply can’t afford to have racist anti-Chinese tourist policies. The world has changed...

** just in case you don't see how tourism will help the Aussie economy - back in the 90s, Hong Kong went through one of it's most horrid economic downturn due to many factors, with the returning of power/rule to China from the British being one of the major ones. The properties were going through a big time slump and with the Asian contagion rampaging through the Asian region, the HKers were feeling totally helpless in dealing with the slump... until China came along and decided to loosen its gate, allowing a flood of Chinese tourists pouring into HK, gobbling up all the luxurious goods they could get their hands on and saved the HK economy in the process.

If you think this is just a one off, well, let's watch Taiwan... China is doing a HK stunt for the Taiwanese economy right now. Taiwan's economy has been in the doldrums since the GFC and with the US pulling back its consumption of Taiwan's hi-tech goods, the Taiwanese economy has been struggling and life to an extent has become quite hard in the island... until they have elected a new President who is more China friendly and changes the whole political atmosphere between the two rivals. As a goodwill gesture, China has decided to help Taiwan out as she has done for HK, firstly by relaxing the travelling restriction between the two countries and secondly allowing Chinese companies to invest in Taiwan... the manoeuvre is still on going, so it's hard to tell if this will be as successful as what they had done back in the 90s, but already there are signs that the Taiwanese economy is recovering and is gaining momentum...

... now back to Australia, and over to everyone - are the Chinese tourists a good thing or bad? Your call.

 

[haunting]

China's illusory power

Of course, China could dump those dollars on world currency markets, but the resulting adjustments in currency values would be much more damaging to China’s export economy than any consequences felt in the US. That damage to China’s export economy would cause unemployment and likely social unrest of a scope and duration the Communist Party could not tolerate.

It would be better for China to cooperate with the United States and undertake an orderly revaluation of the yuan to a level that eliminates its trade surplus over a period of three years. That would be plenty of time for everyone to adjust.

In the end, China only has the leverage President Obama gives it.

** this the usual problem I have with the US-centric comments like this - they still think the US is in charged of the situation and is fully in control. The fact and reality speak much louder than all these chauvinistic opinions - if the US is still as strong as this professor has premised, the US will not go through so much trouble placating the Chinese through talks involving so many high ranking officials from the administration.

A few years ago, what he is seeing now would definitely not happen. It would be a totally non-negotiable and a total dictation from the US to the Chinese... can people be this blind and not see who things had changed since?

If the Chinese were to dump their US$ holding, he can bet this would happen - a complete chaos in the US system. There will be social chaos as well as a complete collapse of the banking system overnight, with hyper-inflation running out of hand rendering all forms of trade within the USA unmanageable - something like what Zimbabwe has been through not too long ago where the US$ value would probably decline by the hour or even minute...

To the Chinese, their debt would be honoured by the USA and not all will be lost. They will take a big haircut on their US$ based assets but I can assure the good old professor that the Chinese will not suffer as much as the Americans... because they have a totalitarian system - it's much easier for the Chinese to manage and control a complete and total social upheaval.

I would rephrase the following for him: "It would be better for the United States to cooperate with China..." and "the US$ only has the leverage the Chinese give them, and without the Chinese goodwill, the US economic recovery will be a long drawn out and painful experience for every American...".

 

[haunting]

Watch the development in this one because "they" are asking the govt to bail them out.

** the Aussie version of TALF - do you/we want to go down the American path?

No friggin' way!

 

[haunting]

Read all about the bad **** here, click me!

The first 12 months of the U.S. recession saw the economy shrink more than twice as much as previously estimated, reflecting even bigger declines in consumer spending and housing, revised figures showed.

The world’s largest economy contracted 1.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the last three months of 2008, compared with the 0.8 percent drop previously on the books, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.

“The current downturn beginning in 2008 is more pronounced,” ...

** nothing much to add, except this contrarian thought - if "they" got it so wrong and for so long, just ask yourself why do you continue believing them?

Which brings up the second question, the current media brains have been calling the Chinese' bluffs by saying their stats and numbers are not credible, etc... the "truth" in all these accusations, for all you know, is probably more credible than these accusing brains want to believe because of their own cognitive bias.

In other words, the growth and the pace of economic recovery in China as well as in the whole Asian region could be much higher and faster than the "west" wants to admit or accept.

Which again brings up another question, why do you want to guide your investment time frame based on what is happening over in the USA? For that matter, their economic recovery, whilst is good, what's that got to do with the Aussie econ recovery?

Already there are so many "authorities" and figures and numbers have been telling you that the Aussie fortune does not rest with the west but instead it's decided by people in some other part of the world; people Australia has problem identified with... more.

 

[haunting]

Thought this is an interesting view he'd expressed last year and in an interview yesterday he responded to the interviewer that he has not changed this view... go find out more if you are curious.

1)
2) His homepage

3) One of his research paper

4) His Wiki Profile

 

[haunting]

"Buy on rumour sell on fact"
"Buy on confession sell on actual report"
"Buy low sell high"
"Sell high buy low"
"Buy on fear sell on exuberance"
"Buy when everyone is arguing on their trading merits, sell when everyone is arguing on their trading merits again and twice as hard"
"Buy when the forum participation is low, sell when it is active"
"Sell when everyone is happy to show their trading scores, buy when everyone is cursing and bitching about everyone in this forum"
"Buy when the analysts are not saying anything sell when analysts are recommending buy"
"Buy when the banks are saying they are losing money, sell when the banks are saying they are still losing but not that bad"

"Buy the first pullback from a new high, sell the first pullback from the new low"

 

[haunting]

Once a rotten system, always a rotten system...

The Fed has emerged as one of Wall Street’s biggest customers during the financial crisis, buying massive amounts of securities to help stabilise the markets. In some cases, such as the market for mortgage-backed securities, the Fed buys more bonds than any other party.

However, the Fed is not a typical market player. In the interests of transparency, it often announces its intention to buy particular securities in advance. A former Fed official said this strategy enables banks to sell these securities to the Fed at an inflated price...

** firstly let us all feel sorry for the American tax payers; secondly let us all feel sorry for ourselves for being caught up in an exploitative corrupt system that has made everyone outside the USA to pay for their debts and help keeping their greedy investment bankers alive just so they can continue sucking the life out of everyone... even after they have been exposed!

*&^%$$%#@@)&&*()!!!

ps: get a grip, it's the US$ hegemony that is plaguing the world finance and it's the investment bankers that are corrupting and exploiting the financial system built on this fiat currency.