GRR - Grange Resources

[qlksvr]

Grange is up 7% to $2.35 today, its been a good week up 40c. Nice to see some buyers starting to line up, however the sellers are starting to dry up. Hopefully a bit more positive news about southdown will push it through the $3 mark.

 

[MR.]

Grange is up 7% to $2.35 today, its been a good week up 40c. Nice to see some buyers starting to line up, however the sellers are starting to dry up. Hopefully a bit more positive news about southdown will push it through the $3 mark.

You had to bring up that dreaded $3- mark, but I'm glad you said through. I'm happy to see it above that $2- mark after buying all the way down to $1.30. Ofcoarse once arrived at $1.30 the boots were already full. Doh....
Then self doubt sets in. I don't own many stocks. I have dabbled a bit here and there and bought TTY recently Oops...

Happen to notice BBY released another research report today on Grange. On Grange's website BBY reports arn't listed anymore. I believe BBY requested for them to be removed as the reports are written for their clients. So I check the following site from time to time to get an Idea.

http://www.bby.com.au/default.asp?S...&author=&Rtype=All&from=&to=&type=All&x=0&y=0

 

[qlksvr]

Nice to see that the Australia stock report rates grange resources as a buy The report came out on the 28 July, so that might explain the rise in the sp over the last couple of weeks. Looking good

 

[MR.]

Nice to see that the Australia stock report rates grange resources as a buy The report came out on the 28 July, so that might explain the rise in the sp over the last couple of weeks. Looking good

Ref: ASR on GRR!

If they weren't suprised to see the support level at $1.30 and for it to bounce, why not put a buy on the stock at near those levels? Why wait until now? Hmmm

I don't think much of ASR but their buy recommendation is on the right track. They appear to give companies "buy" once the company has just shot up! Take a look at their reports on SDL, GBG, SPH and now GRR.

ASR was recommending a buy of SPH for 16 weeks from (12/11/07 $3.82) while the share price sank down to the $1.60's. Once there in the $1.60's the buy recommendation had fallen off their list and not replaced. They wrote they would add SPH to their Absolute Fund (along with GRR ) but they never did.

 

[MR.]

Thought some may find the following of some interest. If you have more up to date figures, let me know. I'll also post my workings on the "iron ore" thread.




Magnetite Iron Ore concentrate comparisons:

GBG ground to 25 microns = 68.5% FE, 4.00% SIO2, 0.08% Al2O3, 0.012 Phosphorus

ARH ground to 32 microns = 67.5% FE, 4.50% SIO2, 0.09% Al2O3, 0.030 Phosphorus

CFE ground to 26 microns = 66% FE, 5.8% SIO2, 0.45% Al203, 0.010 Phosphorus

SPH ground to 45 microns = 70.8% FE, 1.24% SIO2, (West Africa)

GRR ground to 38 microns = 68.8% FE, 2.06% SIO2, 1.41% Al2O3, 0.003 Phosphorus
GRR ground to 35 microns = 69.7% FE, 1.00% SIO2, 1.39% Al2O3, 0.005 Phosphorus
GRR ground to 34 microns = 70+? FE 0.80? SIO2, 1.38? Al203, 0.0055? Phosphorus




GBG info' from 30/4/07 page 1 http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070430/pdf/3125s8fz5bstdp.pdf

ARH info' from 17/7/08 page 3 http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080717/pdf/31b6lkdfsmlr03.pdf
May08 http://www.austresources.com.au/pdf/latest_presentation.pdf

CFE info' from 14/02/08 page 2 http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080214/pdf/317fmq5vmjsr41.pdf

SPH info' from 31/10/07 page 7 http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071031/pdf/315hr6xdy8qlcv.pdf

GRR info' from 28/7/08 page 3 http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080728/pdf/31bcbnntbl048x.pdf
05/5/08 page 24 http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080505/pdf/318yvy46wpgkvn.pdf

 

[MR.]

Qatar steel (Middle East) pulled out of a JV with Sphere Investments asx code "SPH" .
Also see "SPH" thread on ASF.

Qatar Steels responce:
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topi...=238713&version=1&template_id=43&parent_id=19

Sphere Investments is targeting 7 million tonnes of DR Pellets the same as "Grange Resources".

Grange has been seeking another JV partner.

 

[MR.]

Vale on negotiations with iron ore clients

Rio de Janeiro, September 9, 2008 – Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (Vale), in compliance with a determination of Brazil’s Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), informs that it is negotiating with Asian clients the convergence of reference prices for iron ore to the same level of those charged to European clients. Currently, reference prices for Asian clients are 11.0% to 11.5% lower than prices for Europe, depending on the type of iron ore.

http://www.vale.com/vale_us/cgi/cgilua.exe/sys/start.htm?infoid=2393&sid=554

 

[Uncertain Times]

Up 50% on close Friday. What to make of this company? On Thurs with the announcements it dropped 10%. On Fri everyone changed there mind and the price back up again.
Kennas has is listed in the OUSTANDING Breakout thread if your after a chart.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Another company share price decimated with good future potential.

Grange Resources (ASX: GRR ) is developing the world class Southdown Magnetite and Kemaman Pellet project. Collectively, the US$1.7 billion project is expected to produce 6.8 million tonnes per year of premium grade iron ore pellets from 2012.

Also merged with ABM ...

Grange Resources Limited (“Grange” or “the Company”) announced on 25 September 2008, that it had entered into binding agreements to merge with ABM to create a leading mid-cap iron ore group with complementary production and development assets.
Shareholders ratified the proposed merger of Grange and ABM in December 2008. The remaining conditions precedent to the transaction were subsequently satisfied and the transaction was completed on 2 January 2009.
The merger transforms Grange into Australia’s largest producer and exporter of high value magnetite iron products.

Southdown Project W.A. (GGR 70%) ...

With the volatility in the world financial markets and the depressed demand for most commodities, the project team is focused on high value activity, such as securing permits, land access, metallurgical test work and ore body modelling.

 

[MR.]

On Thurs with the announcements it dropped 10%. On Fri everyone changed there mind and the price back up again.

Gota luv it!

Wednesday 29th, most sales were at approx 0.26 A late buyer pushed back to 0.295

Thursday 30th, back to 0.265 from open, volume of 7000. Ann' at approx 2:30pm eastern time. No trades from the ann' to close.

Friday 1st, no trades for near an hour. First trade 0.295 at 10:56am, give da man a badge!!!! 2:21pm ASX Query on increase near 70% #%@$#% LOL....

 

[Uncertain Times]

Just readin back through ASX announcements and noticed that with the merger of GRR and ABM there was an agreement not to sell the GRR shares issued till the 09DEC09. There are about 340 million shares that are covered by this out of 495million shares.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090102/pdf/31ffqd7fywq6t9.pdf

 

[skc]

GRR out of suspension and announced a 1-for-1 rights entitlement offer with record date 26 Aug. This means anyone can still get it on Thursday (I think) to participate. Offer price is a huge discount at 25c against current price 49c.

Expect a large fall on the XE date, however.

Offer closes 11 Sept.

 

[mrluva]

When do you think i can sell my shares and still participate.?..........................................................

 

[MiFFy]

Sad to see this stock not getting much interest on here....

Strong growth ahead of it.... Company acquired the Savage River Tenement here in Tassie in January of this year which is producing 2.5mt iron ore p/annum.

The state of or economy saw it reposition its balance sheets with a shares issue to raise capital to minimize debt and invest into the Southdown project which will replicate the already efficient Savage River Project and will produce 6.5mt of iron ore p/annum.

One of Japans largest corporations has a 30% stake in the Southdown project. The company is also looking at putting a pellet plant in Malaysia where it will enjoy tax benefits and looser environmental issues. This will mean once the iron ore is processed it is essentially "around the corner" so to speak from the Asian market!

Closing today at .26c with an all-time low last week of .235 this share is amazing value! (My own opinion... you do the research)

Hoping to see Southdown running in first quarter 2012.

What are some others thoughts/opinions?

 

[Ozymandias]

P/E from FY09 certainly makes it cheap, but their cost of production per ton of pellets really blew out in Q1.

In fact, it's higher than the benchmark, which is the contract price with Shagang! Hopefully the remaining ~45% sales will be at a much higher price...

Three bits of news could lead to an upward rerating:

1. Good Q2 production at low cost per ton of pellets
2. Environmental approvals for Southdown go through
3. New, and much higher benchmark price in April - which is practically invevitable, but 5 months away...

Disclosure: I have a holding at around ~9% of my portfolio.

 

[MiFFy]

Sydney - Thursday - November 26: (RWE Aust Business News) - Grange Resources (GRR) has received final ministerial approval for the Southdown iron ore mine, Western Australia, and associated pipeline infrastructure.

Managing director Russell Clark said the approval placed the company in a strong position to capitalise on the improving iron ore pricing environment for the years ahead.

"We now have the Southdown iron ore mine in an approvals ready state, which will greatly enhance any future discussions with potential project financiers," he said.

"This is a significant milestone in the development of Southdown and an important step in the development of Grange's second iron ore export operation.

"Together with our joint venture partner Sojitz, we can now look forward to continued progress at Southdown on our own development timetable, without any major foreseeable approval delays."


More good news for GRR!

 

[Speculator]

Amoungst other things,

Grange Resources Limited owns and operates Australia’s largest integrated iron ore mining and pellet production business located in the north west region of Tasmania.

My L plater analysis says the fundies are strong and with iron ore being one of the leading base metals forecasted for growth in 2010 into 2015 why has GRR's SP not recovered?

Based on resistance level of .3 we may be due for a run.

If anyone has any info please share as I am puzzled.

Cheers

 

[Ozymandias]

Around half of their pellet output is contracted to Shagang at fixed contract prices. Judging by the last quarterly update, it'll be a very significant drop in earnings for HY10 - in Q1 the average cost of pellets exceeded the contract price with Shagang. I feel this is already priced in, but we'll see if the market agrees.

When the pellet contract is renewed at new pricing in April (I think) it's likely to go up 20% - 30%, so expect a rerate at that stage, or shortly before it. A good Q2 or progress with Southdown could also trigger a rerate.

Right now I can't see it going lower than the recent lows barring a major bad news announcement.

 

[Speculator]

Around half of their pellet output is contracted to Shagang at fixed contract prices. Judging by the last quarterly update, it'll be a very significant drop in earnings for HY10 - in Q1 the average cost of pellets exceeded the contract price with Shagang. I feel this is already priced in, but we'll see if the market agrees.

When the pellet contract is renewed at new pricing in April (I think) it's likely to go up 20% - 30%, so expect a rerate at that stage, or shortly before it. A good Q2 or progress with Southdown could also trigger a rerate.

Right now I can't see it going lower than the recent lows barring a major bad news announcement.

Ahh makes good sense thank you Ozy.

Is there anyway we can get a confirmation on the dates for the pellet contract renewell?

Cheers

 

[Ozymandias]

It's in either the Annual Report, or one of the presentations from the last six months... or both. A few quick keyword searches should turn it up.

If you are planning on buying in right before the contract price change, I would be cautious of waiting too long. I suspect others will have the same plan and this will drive the price up ahead of any announcement. But that's purely speculation on my part.

Disclosure: I own a parcel, I have no significant gain or loss on it right now.