GRR - Grange Resources

[gfu]

MR.
Have you also calculated their NPAT with this new pellet price, knowing their cost is US$ 52.
The outcome is >US$ 957 million bottom line, marketcap now $ 170 million.
It seems that very few people are aware of this at this moment.
NPV on operational basis will be > $ 2,5-3 billion one day.

 

[gfu]

I heared that the new CEO restarted negotiations with parties for financing or takeover. Timing should be perfect after price raise of DR pellets.

 

[MR.]

MR.
Have you also calculated their NPAT with this new pellet price, knowing their cost is US$ 52.
The outcome is >US$ 957 million bottom line, marketcap now $ 170 million.

GFU
IE: 6.6MT's x ($197 UST - $52 UST) = your US $957 million...

But my $197- is delivered to Asia. There will be a freight charge but it should not be as high as $30- per ton as this is from Brazil. Your NPAT = "net profit after TAX" is a little high.

I do agree that the new MD Russell Clark should be speaking to protential JV partner/s. Grange has not had a Managing Director really since Geoff gave notice on the 23/10/07. Russell began as MD on the 6/3/08. It is definitely time now for the MD to be negotiating.

 

[MR.]

Guys need your help here!

This has been happening for weeks. The following just happened again with GRR.

10:20:06 AM 1.620 4,591 7,437.42
10:20:05 AM 1.620 100 162.00

Only 100 shares up to buy @ 0.62
Someone places 4,691 shares @ 1.62 for sale and takes out the 100, a second later a computer places a buy order for the rest. (4,591) That 100 activated the buy order.

There is very little support on screen with GRR.

Is this a common way to accumulate a companies stock?

 

[MR.]

Directors buy
Anthony has bought another 145,000 shares @ $1.59

Does give some confidence to the holders with all the mucking around with the share price.

 

[MR.]

Krakatau Steel eyeing stake in Grange Resources.
http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cach...EEL+grange+resources&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=au

http://munir-haikal.blogspot.com/2008/06/ks-learns-to-acquire-grange-resources.html


Vale eyes Malaysia to build a pellet plant.
http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds...T_0_VALE-IRONORE-ASIA-UPDATE-1-INTERVIEW.html

3 directors of Grange in the last 2 weeks have bought more shares. The last director to buy has bought 75% of his holding at $1.65. Yesterdays close was$1.67

Can not work out the stacking at $1.70 perhaps it is a successful attempt to keep the price down. Has been there for 3 weeks and hardly anyone has touched them, started with one seller of 175,000.

 

[Sean K]

Could be some capping going on there MR. I am loath to use the term as it usually comes from rampers trying to explain why a stock isn't moving, but I have seen it now and then. Might be the case here for brokers to accumulate stock for interested parties.

 

[MR.]

Thats the problem you can't tell. Some quite purchases have been going on for weeks as I posted above on the 20th May and still continue to happen.

That 175,000 is pulled after every days trade and put back on each morning at about 9:30. Often someone else has put a few thousand up on $1.70 before the (approx) 175,000 is put back on so they are now second in line. (they are never going to sell at this rate) If it is being capped it appears that way to me.

To the DSO Haematite lovers:
Articles written by Tim Treadgold over the past year have not helped Grange at all. His view has not changed "sell all magnetites and buy DSO." Look at the quality being planned for extraction from so many other miners including FMG. None of this stuff is any good for Direct Reduction (DR) steel mills you need at least 66% Iron with very low impurities of less than 4% SIO2 and AI2O3 combined and very low phosphorus.

Pellets made from "Magnetite" makes up the short supply. Not short supply of DSO but the high grade DSO Haematite which hardly anyone has, we can't ship it because we don't have much of it. Such high grades of Haematite are rare.

If you have the opinion that magnetite is only used to make expensive concentrates which is the same as all these DSO juniors which simply dig it up out of the ground and ship, your opinion is flawed.

It is because of the expense involved with a pellet plant everyone moves into DSO. But high grade Iron Ore is still needed. This demand will not go away. Vale CVRD (one of the big 3 in iron ore) is now looking at setting up a pellet plant in Malaysia of some 7MT. (as link posted this morning) Grange has had plans for a 7MT pellet plant in Malaysia for years. Grange is looking for further partners which could include a partner just for the pellet plant.

Further more Tim Treadgold did not believe in FMG.
It was only last year he started to believe in Fortescue.
I wonder how many will change their minds!
I hope its not me, but these are testing times.

HOLD

 

[MR.]

Krakatau Steel eyeing stake in Grange Resources.
http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cach...EEL+grange+resources&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=au

http://munir-haikal.blogspot.com/2008/06/ks-learns-to-acquire-grange-resources.html

STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT
KRAKATAU STEEL
12 June 2008
This week there have been a number of articles published in the Indonesian Business newspaper “Bisnis Indonesia“, and also reported by Bloomberg that PT Krakatau Steel may buy a 20% to 30 % stake in Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) to secure iron ore supplies.
Grange has not had any discussion or communication with Krakatau Steel in recent months about any facet of the company or the Southdown project.
As previously announced in the quarterly report issued on 30 April 2008 Grange is continuing to progress discussions regarding the company’s Southdown project with a number of significant international companies.
As the outlook for the future demand for pellets and in particular for the premium quality DR pellets, has improved dramatically, Grange remains confident of securing the necessary investment to advance the project.

 

[MR.]

A couple of weeks ago MD/CEO Russell Clark of Grange did a presentation at Amec Sydney. Grange was recorded by Board Room Radio. The Link takes about 10 minutes to download and you can listen while you view the presentation.

Explains in brief Blast Furnaces (Haematite / BF Pellets) and Electric Arc Furnaces (DR Pellets).
This year Carajas Lump raised by 71% but DR Pellets raised by 86.67%.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/46323

- Production of 7 million tonnes for 35 years.
- US $1+ billion potential revenue per year.
- EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) potential US $400 to US $500 million per year.
- Current Market cap is $184 million.

 

[MR.]

Could be some capping going on there MR. I am loath to use the term as it usually comes from rampers trying to explain why a stock isn't moving, but I have seen it now and then. Might be the case here for brokers to accumulate stock for interested parties.

That was on the 12/6/08 I brought it up. The following day no more capping / stacking of that $1.70 sell depth. Did someone read ASF?

Anyway, buying depth Friday looked great with good volume. Closed at $1.66
Do any ASF members currently hold GRR?

 

[ta2693]

1.6 billion ton Magnetite CFE sold for 400m
GRR has 0.5 billion ton. I give 140m market value
another 0.5 billion ton potential. 40m market value
180m the price seems very fair.

ARH market cap 700m for output of 6mt pellet
BFS predict NPV 3000m
Everything is in place production in 2011 as plan.
GRR 180m, 7m pellet output
early stage, current market situation, I think it will be difficult to get finance.

I think GRR looks cheap. but not so cheap to have baggish return.

 

[MR.]

1.6 billion ton Magnetite CFE sold for 400m
GRR has 0.5 billion ton. I give 140m market value
another 0.5 billion ton potential. 40m market value
180m the price seems very fair.

ARH market cap 700m for output of 6mt pellet
BFS predict NPV 3000m
Everything is in place production in 2011 as plan.
GRR 180m, 7m pellet output
early stage, current market situation, I think it will be difficult to get finance.

I think GRR looks cheap. but not so cheap to have baggish return.

Well, should I respond? Some people are far smarter than they like to appear, so some questions in return perhaps.

Can all that 1.6 billion tonnes of Magnetite of CFE's be extracted by an open pit? Isn't a lot of the resource in thin layers deep under ground. How far away is it before underground mining for Magnetite is done here? And the quality! Is it fair to divide $400m by 1.6 billion and multiply that by 0.5 + a bit? No..........

So Grange is at an early stage is it? ARH has a market cap of 700m approx with a plan for a similar quantity of DR pellets to Grange. Does ARH have EPA approval? Has ARH submitted their final submission to the EPA for that approval as yet? On the 18/6/08 they still hadn't. But Grange has.....

Finally since you brought it up, what makes a multi bagger? I would have thought low price with plenty of upside! Good Luck.....

 

[MR.]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080630/pdf/319ws8vn09w3gs.pdf

EPA RECOMMENDS APPROVAL OF SOUTHDOWN IRON ORE PROJECT.

 

[Wysiwyg]

I like the story so far MR. The high grade 69 % Fe pellet production planned from Kemaman with the close proximity to customers in S.E. Asia.The contacts with iron ore customers their partner, Japanese company Sojitz has.Their present operations in Malaysia are good for relations.A 22 year mine life with more resource nearby.(RIO isn`t it??) Forecasting Q4 2010 for first pellets isn`t that far away.As you say EPA approval.Bit of a false rumour amongst the Indos about a stake from Krakatau, lol.

 

[MR.]

I like the story so far MR. The high grade 69 % Fe pellet production planned from Kemaman with the close proximity to customers in S.E. Asia.The contacts with iron ore customers their partner, Japanese company Sojitz has.Their present operations in Malaysia are good for relations.A 22 year mine life with more resource nearby.(RIO isn`t it??) Forecasting Q4 2010 for first pellets isn`t that far away.As you say EPA approval.Bit of a false rumour amongst the Indos about a stake from Krakatau, lol.

69% is close enough. The grade is 37.6% as mined, the concentrate is 69.76 and the pellets are 67.23%. confussing!

RIO does not own the resource anymore, Grange does. Purchased from RIO for cash, shares and options in Grange. Sojitz I believe has contacts all over and perhaps even in the Middle East as well. First pellets will be longer than end 2010 and maybe 2012 now. Well thats the time given when our new MD Russell Clark took control. Grange has missed a few time frames in the past, by extending out to as much as 2012 Russell has a buffer. Fair enough in my opinion, Russell will be paid reward payments for concentrate and pellets once in production. (no one likes missed time frames as well)

Krakatau, I still have trouble with, why they would leak the information in the first place, "if true". Anyway nothing as yet. Perhaps false. Krakatau's profits have increased recently and I have read they are looking at expanding their 2.5mt's production out to 5mt's. Arcelor-Mittal (by far the worlds biggest steel producer) is looking at spending as much as 10 billion in Indonesia which could include a stake up to 49% of Krakatua Steel.

Vale is also looking at a pellet plant in Malaysia as well.
Anyway, lots happening in that part of the world.

 

[qlksvr]

Nice to see the price slowly heading north again, sitting at $2.04 at the moment on low turnover. Interesting to see that russias Evraz Group has showed some interest in Cape Lambert Iron Ore, this might put further interest into the southdown project.

 

[MR.]

Nice to see the price slowly heading north again, sitting at $2.04 at the moment on low turnover. Interesting to see that russias Evraz Group has showed some interest in Cape Lambert Iron Ore, this might put further interest into the southdown project.

Yes it might. So your still hanging in there qlksvr. That's Good.

IMO that other JV partner should not be too much longer.

 

[qlksvr]

Yes it might. So your still hanging in there qlksvr. That's Good.

IMO that other JV partner should not be too much longer.

Yes MR Im still hanging on, Im a long term investor. I have had these shares for about 5 years now and have watched them grow nicely.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

It's certainly the best positioned and highest grade magnetitie resource that I can see apart from the coastal beasts that are lower grade but closer to market ie: CFE and others. I got in because of the grade, it has to be mined and someone will want in very soon.