GRR - Grange Resources

[MiFFy]

Another 32+ million trade went through this afternoon. Is this another institution buying in before the IO price upgrade. As long as the SP keeps going north, I'm happy.

Looks like Stemcor sold off there remaining 2.83% just after 1pm.....

Will be interesting to see who purchased those.....

High of .48 today.... still trending upwards and over 400 trades...

 

[vine]

Still moving, up another 7% today so far on 6+ million traded. What price do you think this will reach by the time new IO agreements announced.

 

[Speculator]

Still moving, up another 7% today so far on 6+ million traded. What price do you think this will reach by the time new IO agreements announced.

Hey Vine

Based purely on the chart I'd say 70c is not an un reasonable expectation for 31 March.

GRR is a iron ore miner and more importantly magnetite producer (largest in AU) and thus are highly leveraged to increased demands in iron ore. They have somewhat of a niche market when iron ore is in high demand + supply as steel production facilities want to optimise productivity and expenses. And when Iron ore is easily available (due to all miners ramping up excavation) yet relatively expensive it is more cost efficient and faster to use magnetite (due to its high quality) than it is it use the ore.

This combined with the fact that GRR has strong ties to China, a potential and probable large yet to be released (i think they said they are expecting drill results sometime in the next two months) iron ore body beneath one of their existing mines makes case for a significant re-rating in the SP in the near future (imo).

I hold and plan to do so for years to come

 

[snorer]

Still plenty of interest in Grange this week, edging up after some profit taking I suspect, closing at 53 cents today.Still time to increase one's holding I feel as future IO price still to be settled and valued by Patersons @ .67 cents per share (January 2010) as per the company's presentation to the London ASX conference 12 March 2010 .

 

[vine]

Grange continues to trend upwards another 10% today on increased volume. I think this still has a little way to run while awaiting I/O pricing. I am a happy holder at present getting in at low 40's I know Speculator predicted a $1 - $1.50 a while back. How long do you think it will take to get there. I wouldn't be suprised to see $1 by the end of the year esp as more news comes through at their other project in WA.

I'm going to hold for a while longer.

 

[Speculator]

Grange continues to trend upwards another 10% today on increased volume. I think this still has a little way to run while awaiting I/O pricing. I am a happy holder at present getting in at low 40's I know Speculator predicted a $1 - $1.50 a while back. How long do you think it will take to get there. I wouldn't be suprised to see $1 by the end of the year esp as more news comes through at their other project in WA.

I'm going to hold for a while longer.

$1 is to conservative for years end, divide your timeline by 8 and you'll be more on the money Theres to much going on for GRR (I'm liking what I hear from thier Chinese counterparts about using GRR to acquire more AU Iron Ore Co's) for it to wait a year for it to hit $1

At the end of this or next month when it gets to $1 it will have a steady increase to around $2 by years end imo (hurdles on the way obviously).

And i don't quite think predict is the correct word to use more of a guestimation evaluation ha! (all my calcs are really rough, the way I like it).

Nearly fell off me chair, Rightttttttt.
As da man says "DYOR" (Do Your Own Research)...............!

Hows the stability of your chair feeling MR? lol I jest.

 

[Ozymandias]

Theres to much going on for GRR (I'm liking what I hear from thier Chinese counterparts about using GRR to acquire more AU Iron Ore Co's) for it to wait a year for it to hit $1

Can you cite a source there Speculator?

Hard to say where it'll be by the end of the year, given that prices are now determined on a quarterly basis and could go back down before then... But I'll surprised if it doesn't hit $1 between now and then...

Consider that if the price settles at (say) US$160/t for pellets, then with a cost of US$65/t, and production of 2.5Mtpa, GRR will be pulling US$166.25M of profit, after tax. That's assuming the maximum tax rate of 30% applies... So right now, that'd be a P/E of 4.5. Pretty low.

 

[MiFFy]

Consider that if the price settles at (say) US$160/t for pellets, then with a cost of US$65/t, and production of 2.5Mtpa, GRR will be pulling US$166.25M of profit, after tax. That's assuming the maximum tax rate of 30% applies... So right now, that'd be a P/E of 4.5. Pretty low.

a good calculation, and yes it does mean a low p/e ratio, lets also consider that the price per tonne doesn't even reach that figure, lower again.

I think Grange is getting a lot of fundamental investors at the moment.... They can see the potential of what the Southdown Project can bring, and with Iron Ore prices staying at these heights then we will see Grange grow on the market.
There is also a lot of attention focused on Iron Ore, take a look at a lot of companies dealing with this product and you will see substantial price hikes in the last six months.

I for one love the hype having gotten in at mid 20's and holding a substantial portion of my portfolio. I can easily see Grange being at around $2 by the end of the year,

My target is the $3 mark. Which I believe is achievable within two years providing continued progress with Southdown and Chinese demand for steel which seems to have a 20 year life ?

Be aware though, all this is my own thoughts, feeling, estimates and opinions. Do your own research and you will probably buy some

 

[snowking]

Just started looking at this stock and it seems very appealing so far, especially in the short term based on the charts.

Just quickly, i noticed that Shagang International Holdings Ltd has a very large stake in the company. Does anyone here think there will be a takeover?

 

[Ozymandias]

No, Shagang already has what they want from Grange - a secure and reliable source of pellets. Given that they only need a tiny proportion more to break the 50% barrier, if they wanted full control they would have done it already, when the GRR share price was in a slump.

 

[Ozymandias]

I haven't been able to find any solid figures on what pellet spot prices are at right now, can anyone point me to a reliable source for this information?

 

[MR.]

$2 by years end imo ..............

Hows the stability of your chair feeling MR? lol I jest.

Ya claimed a $1+ rise to $1.50 not 21cents to 65cents, within two months.
Ya musta forgotten!

But wait there's more!

 

[Speculator]

Ya claimed a $1+ rise to $1.50 not 21cents to 44cents, within two months.
Ya musta forgotten!

But wait there's more!

For the record youll find that I called it on March 5th with a price target of $1 in 2 months time (I also said I wouldnt be suprised to see it at $1.50).

It's now April, so I have 1 month left to hit a dollar.

Not 21c to 44c but 44c to 67c.

Looks like we may have misunderstood each other.

Regardless, what are your sentiments about share price reaching $1 by months end?

I personally can see it taking a breather next week and then making the final moves to around $1 when we get the quarterly.

 

[Speculator]

Can you cite a source there Speculator?

Hey Ozy

Been looking all damn morning for the radio interview with the info bout GRR's Chinese investors potentially using Grange as a vessel to acquire more aussie miners but for the life of me cant find it, my apologies.

 

[MR.]

For the record youll find that I called it on March 5th with a price target of $1 in 2 months time (I also said I wouldnt be suprised to see it at $1.50).

So it's my mistake then? ..... lets have a look

March 5th:

I can't see much resistance till around $1 and I would not be surprised to see GRR at $1.50 in under two months.

"Resistance" at $1- could mean "price target" ..... perhaps?

However, your $1- "for the record" did not refer to the 2 months, only $1.50 did. So your $1- resistance/target should be reached well under the 2 months time frame then!

Your comment of the "$1.50 in under two months" provoked my response back then. Yesterday you brought it back up when the increase had only been 21cents to 65 cents. It's a bit shy of the $1.06 needed to bring the price up to $1.50

Looks like we may have misunderstood each other.

Huh..., I think not!
Keep on ramping...

 

[tech/a]

A bit peaved you didnt get on it MR.
While i dont have an opinion on S's analysis I certainly have my own.

 

[MR.]

A bit peaved you didnt get on it MR.

Good on ya tech!

Nah, just pointing out the ramping!

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[tech/a]

Good on ya tech!

Nah, just pointing out the ramping!

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Yeh well the Forward "Analysis" is dubious at best.
Carry------------------------------------------on.

 

[vine]

Another bit of a run on GRR this morning up 8%, still trending up. You may get there yet Speculator still got a couple of weeks

 

[MR.]

Relentless, up and up she goes.
LOL $1.50 here she comes...... .......................................