GPT - GPT Group

[nulla nulla]

The Annual report released today for Year Ending 31 December 2012 is worth a read. The Key points are listed below. They seem fairly confident going ahead, forecasting 2013 EPS growth of at least 5%.


KEY HIGHLIGHTS
FINANCIAL:
Net profit after tax of $594.5 million for the year ended 31 December 2012, up 141.5 per cent on 31
December 2011. The result reflects strong operational performance and an uplift in underlying
property values.
Realised operating income (ROI) 1 of $456.4 million 2, up 4.0 per cent on 31 December 2011 3.
ROI per ordinary security of 24.2 cents, up 8.0 per cent on 31 December 2011.
Cash distribution of 19.3 cents per ordinary security up 8.4 per cent on 31 December 2011.
Total Return of 9.5 per cent and Total Securityholder Return (TSR) of 26.9 per cent 4.
Net tangible assets (NTA) per security increased by 3.9 per cent to $3.73.
Continued active capital management, including:
- Diversification of debt sources with $430 million in bond issues over the past year;
- Reduction in average cost of debt by 100 basis points on the previous year; and
- Low gearing of 21.7 per cent.

OPERATIONAL:
Total return for the investment assets of 9.3 per cent with comparable income growth of 3.2 per cent.
Continued focus on operational efficiency with expenses declining 6.8 per cent.
High occupancy and long lease expiry profile maintained.
Completed development of 111 Eagle Street, Brisbane, and 5 Murray Rose Avenue, Sydney Olympic
Park.

STRATEGIC:
Actively managing the portfolio, with progress made on moving to a more balanced sector weighting.
Significant review of cost base and structure completed, which will deliver a recurring $10 million after
tax earnings benefit in 2013.
Progress made on all four growth platforms to further accelerate performance: funds management,
development, new profit sources and asset acquisitions.
Investing in developing GPT’s strategic direction for the next five years with the goal of being
Australia’s best performing property company.

GUIDANCE:
2013 forecast EPS 5 growth of at least 5 per cent.
Payout ratio of 80 per cent of ROI.

Notes to the above:
1 Before payment of distribution on exchangeable securities.
2 Statutory profit adjusted for changes in fair value of assets of $221.3m, loss on disposals of ($3.1m), financial instruments marked to market value movements and net foreign exchange losses of ($40.4m), and other items of ($39.7m).
3 ROI growth was lower than growth in ROI per security because of the impact of the Group’s security buy back.
4 Total return is defined as DPS plus change in NTA. TSR is defined as distributions paid plus change in security price.
5 EPS defined as Realised Operating Income per ordinary security.

Has ther been any further updates on the proposed takeover of ALZ?

 

[nulla nulla]

It would seem GPT is still keen to proceed with the ALZ acquisition but it is not essential to the growth expectations for 2013.

The Bull: http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/35457-gpt-committed-to-pursuing-australand-deal.html

Worth a read.

 

[nulla nulla]

Here we were sitting in our rocket ship to the moon and suddenly we weren't going there any more. Seems some-one forgot to pay the fuel bill and the tank was only half full. Made for a good lift off but not enough fuel in the tank to go the full distance. Can't blame this one on the Cypriots as it was on the way down last week.



Question is, whether the share can rally off the support level of $3.72 or are we going to break through and test lower levels. No news recently about the ALZ take-over offer? Anyone heard anything?

Yeah we bought in at $3.79 for a small trade that is now in the red. As always, do your own research and good luck.

 

[skc]

Question is, whether the share can rally off the support level of $3.72 or are we going to break through and test lower levels. No news recently about the ALZ take-over offer? Anyone heard anything?

Yeah we bought in at $3.79 for a small trade that is now in the red. As always, do your own research and good luck.

Still plenty of sellers on GPT and it's been the worst performing REIT in the last two weeks amongst those I monitor. Here's a possible explanation.

Recent block trades have focused attention on where the next moves will come from and on Monday afternoon the spotlight shone on GPT Group as one potential source.

Government of Singapore Investment Corporation owns 13 per cent of GPT Group, after bailing the property giant out during the global financial crisis. GIC bought most of its stake at a hefty discount to Monday’s trading price of $3.69.

Most of the big real estate trusts ended lower on Monday, which caused hedge funds to wonder whether a big property investor was making room in its portfolio for a block trade.

If GIC did sell out of GPT, it would come on the back of two major property block trades.

From AFR Street Talk http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/gpt_in_limelight_as_block_trades_AaQx3uamHcPMKluBIVqKAK

Probably just some reporter making up news but if the Singaporians do decide to sell I would probably buy a parcel as a longer term hold. Nothing like mindless portfilio moves to create great entry opportunities...

 

[nulla nulla]

GPT has been sliding now for a few weeks. I thought it may have something to do with the proposed acquisition of Australand assets but the share price actualy ran up after the acquisition proposal was announced. Also in this time GPT has raised a substantial amount of funds in the U.S that was raised on the basis of the Aud$ as the relevent currency, so GPT will not have exposure to any drop off of the Aud$ against the U.S$.

On Monday several A-REIT's dropped in a flurry of selling in the half hour leading up to the close and even further in the auction. As you point out it had the appearance of fund managers reweighting their portfolios', exiting the likes of CFX, CPA, DXS, IOF, GPT and SGP (and others) however there was a good take up of WDC and I suspect the $ and volumes of the sales would closely match the take up buys of SCP, WDC and WRT (but not completely as I also expect some of the sales were profit taking).

A large foreign investor winding down their positions at the current AUD$ level would also make sense. If GPT is going to be sold off as a large block, I would expect it to be at a discount to the present levels. Also, the impact of the sell down on the share price would most likely replicate what took place when SGP sold out of GPT. It may pay to have a bit of cash set aside in case this is what is happening. Apart from the oportunities created on Monday another block sell down of GPT would be worth jumping into (imo). Additionaly they have another div coming up in early May.

 

[skc]

GPT has been sliding now for a few weeks. I thought it may have something to do with the proposed acquisition of Australand assets but the share price actualy ran up after the acquisition proposal was announced. Also in this time GPT has raised a substantial amount of funds in the U.S that was raised on the basis of the Aud$ as the relevent currency, so GPT will not have exposure to any drop off of the Aud$ against the U.S$.

On Monday several A-REIT's dropped in a flurry of selling in the half hour leading up to the close and even further in the auction. As you point out it had the appearance of fund managers reweighting their portfolios', exiting the likes of CFX, CPA, DXS, IOF, GPT and SGP (and others) however there was a good take up of WDC and I suspect the $ and volumes of the sales would closely match the take up buys of SCP, WDC and WRT (but not completely as I also expect some of the sales were profit taking).

A large foreign investor winding down their positions at the current AUD$ level would also make sense. If GPT is going to be sold off as a large block, I would expect it to be at a discount to the present levels. Also, the impact of the sell down on the share price would most likely replicate what took place when SGP sold out of GPT. It may pay to have a bit of cash set aside in case this is what is happening. Apart from the oportunities created on Monday another block sell down of GPT would be worth jumping into (imo). Additionaly they have another div coming up in early May.

the sell down Monday suited me just fine as i was able to exit a CFX short with good profit, unfortunately I was not able to grab some DXS quick enough which bounced well today. There are also words that the Meriton might be for sale or be absorbed into SGP so managers are making moves on that basis.

If there's a block trade on GPT I'd expect the price to behave like WRT or GMG after they got sold down. The weakness seems to last around a month or so... WRT hasn't fully recover yet but it's probably the same % off recent high as other REITs anyway.

 

[nulla nulla]

GPT looks like it has been in freefall for several weeks before appearing to find buyers at the support line of $3.72 approximately 2 weeks ago. Bouncing back up to $3.77 GPT then suffered a set back as sellers came out of the woodwork and pushed the share price down to close at $3.65 on Thursday 28-3-13. The indicative opening price for GPT of $3.63 on Tuesday 2-4-13 didn't look good, suggesting that GPT was going to continue the fall. Then right on open the match price jumped back to $3.66 and GPT literaly took off. The high through the week was $3.89. Unfortunately only a few hundred shares were purchased at this level before the share price faded to finish the week on $3.85.



There haven't been any announcements regarding acquisitions/mergers (alz), property acquisitions or disposals and/or property revaluations. If anything the sell down has run contrary to most of the other A-REIT's that have tracked sideways and upward during this period. Even more oddly, retail is supposed to be showing signs of recovery along with housing. You would almost expect GPT to be marching onward and upward. I'm sure it isn't "churning" by the fund managers but I can't think of any rational explanation other than maybe some portfolio reweighting and profit taking? As always do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

The GPT share price increased the rate of acceleration climbing to new 4 year highs, even tapping $4.20 in the last two weeks. The share price drifted down immediately prior to going ex-div ($0.051 per unit) and Mrs nulla jumped in with her smsf to try for a capital gain/div combo trade at $4.09.



It has now dropped to $4.05. It will be interesting to see if it can climb back to the new recent highs in the next few weeks. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

GPT has agreed to settle the class action brought by Slater & Gordon allegedly for $75 million, subject to approval by the courts. It will be interesting to see how much of the pool ends up with the claimants (former shareholders) and how much individual shareholders get per share for those that registered with Slater & Gordon.

GPT indicated in their release that they had/have insurance in place against the claim and the outcome will not impact on their bottom line. The settlement does not construe any admission of liability or wrong doing on the part of GPT or the directors of GPT.

 

[rbgmauq]

GPT is facing the resistance of 4.22. The technical indicator shows a buy with the 4.929 target price in six months.

 

[nulla nulla]

GPT's closing share price of $4.12 for Friday 17 May 2013 does not reflect the amazing swings experienced through the last two weeks. From a close of $4.05 on Friday 03 May 2013, after going ex-div, GPT has recovered quickly to $4.15, fallen back to $4.07, jumped the next trading day to open at $4.18, dropped like a stone to $4.10, climbed to $4.24 then drifted back to $4.09 before closing out the week at $4.12.



A bit like a drunk fumbling arround in the dark trying to find the way home. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

GPT is facing the resistance of 4.22. The technical indicator shows a buy with the 4.929 target price in six months.

I will happily sell you my gpt purchased at $4.10 for $4.90 .
GPT has taken a battering with the pull back of off-shore investor funds compounded by the decision not to proceed with a takeover bid for the Australand assets.



At this point I am looking at taking the loss for the tax offset and sitting out of the market until it settles down into a trade-able pattern again.

 

[coolcup]

I will happily sell you my gpt purchased at $4.10 for $4.90 .
GPT has taken a battering with the pull back of off-shore investor funds compounded by the decision not to proceed with a takeover bid for the Australand assets.

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At this point I am looking at taking the loss for the tax offset and sitting out of the market until it settles down into a trade-able pattern again.

JP Morgan have upgraded GPT to a high conviction buy following the recent price weakness. Not sure that will stop the current slide but may provide some short term support.

 

[nulla nulla]

JP Morgan have upgraded GPT to a high conviction buy following the recent price weakness. Not sure that will stop the current slide but may provide some short term support.

The hardest part of trading a share like GPT is working out whether a substantial correction, such as we have seen over the past few weeks, is a golden opportunity to jump in for a good short term profit on a rebound or whether the correction still has further to run. Often after activating a stock loss, the share recovers significantly leaving you out of pocket. Damned if you do and Damned if you don't.

Can you pass on when JP Morgan upgraded GPT's status? High conviction buy sounds fairly impressive.

 

[coolcup]

The hardest part of trading a share like GPT is working out whether a substantial correction, such as we have seen over the past few weeks, is a golden opportunity to jump in for a good short term profit on a rebound or whether the correction still has further to run. Often after activating a stock loss, the share recovers significantly leaving you out of pocket. Damned if you do and Damned if you don't.

Can you pass on when JP Morgan upgraded GPT's status? High conviction buy sounds fairly impressive.

It was just last night that they upgraded.

 

[nulla nulla]

It was just last night that they upgraded.

Thanks for that.

 

[skc]

It was just last night that they upgraded.

Actually it was 27 May. They did however reiterate the call last night / this morning.

 

[coolcup]

Actually it was 27 May. They did however reiterate the call last night / this morning.

Apologies, I did not see that article. I saw the one last night which must have reaffirmed their call.

 

[nulla nulla]

The good news is GPT has re-activated the share buy back program. Also there was a release to the market that their present debt to asset levels are at a gearing ratio of 18%. Further, the boss considers that GPT has untapped capacity of $2 billion (funds on hand and low cost borrowing capabilities) that would keep the debt/asset gearing ratio under a comfortable 35% enabling them to expand into core assets as and when they become available.



The share price dipped to $3.68 through the week and while it rebounded it appears to be struggling to find enough support to push back above $3.75. Unlike a lot of other A-REIT's GPT is not due to go ex-div in June. GPT will declare and pay a div in August so there isn't the prospect of a div to prop up the share price this month.

There is a classic play happening at the moment between the smart money buying shares at great yield and price earnings levels, versus the smart money selling out as the Aud$ falls. It will be interesting to see if there is any significant portfolio reweighting by the large fund managers before the end of June and how this impacts on GPT.

 

[nulla nulla]

For the past six weeks the GPT share price has reflected the volitility in the A-REIT sector with the share price ranging between the low $3.70's and the high $3.80's.



At $3.66 GPT was a screaming buy (the missus screamed at me to buy for her SMSF and I did). Although GPT is my stock pick for July (and it is $0.02 down since the start of the month) I will not pick it for August. GPT is due to go ex-div and pay a div of approximately $0.05 in August. I suspect there will be further gains in the share price before it goes ex-div after which point the share price will likely drop by the amount of the div.


Also it would not surprise me if GPT took a stake in CPA to thwart any management take-over of CPA by Dexus. It is known that GPT is cashed up, has capacity to borrow more and would probably like to pick up some of CPA's better assets in Sydney & Melbourne. The next few weeks should be interesting.

As always, do your own research and good luck.