GPT - GPT Group

[nulla nulla]

$3.16 appears to have turned into a level of resistance. While gpt bounced back nicely after going exdiv (after testing some exagerated lows), it seems to be struggling to get through $3.16.

Opened today at $3.15, tested $3.16 for a short while then the sellers built up and pushed it steadily down to $3.12. At one point, in the closing auction, it looked like closing on $3.11 however buyers jumped in with seconds to spare and pushed the closing price back to $3.13.



Can't see why gpt is under such a strangle hold when the likes of Dexus, CPA and IOF are trading in the higher ranges of their price channels. IMO, if it drops back much further it will present further trade oportunities. As always DYOR.

 

[nulla nulla]

On recent figures GPT seems to be developing a resistance point at $3.16 while garnering a lot of support in the $3.07 - $3.10 level.



With very low debt levels compared to some of the other REIT's, gpt seems to be underpriced in the market. Imo it is hardly surprising to see the share price spike up to $3.20 from time to time. Just wish I could pick when it was going to happen

 

[nulla nulla]

In late April the Australian REIT suddenly became attractive to investors and shares across the sector lifted by 3-5%. GPT was no exception breaking through the recent resistance level of $3.16 and the longer term resistance level of $3.27 (from 6/12/2011).
Tapping $3.31 early this week, gpt fell back through the week but found support at $3.22 (which was previously a resistance level) and closed on Friday at $3.26. Can it go higher from here? The trend from early February is definitely upward but has it got the substance to justify going higher?



With the share price at $3.26 gpt has reduced the discount to NTA, has reduced the yield for potential investors and is trading at a fairly high price/earnings ratio. You would think long term investors would be guided by yield (which is now fairly low in comparison to most of the other reits) and price/earnings ratio (which is high in comparison with other reits). Admittedly gpt has one of the lowest borrowing levels of the reits but is this enough to encourage the long term investors or is there another factor in play that we small investors are unaware of? I dunno.

I'll wait for more information or a better entry price before putting my hard earned in for now. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

$3.19 on Tuesday looked like a good entry but I missed the same day exit at $3.24 (too far back in the queue and moving it down would have lowered the closing price). Entries on Wednesday at $3.18, $3.17 and $3.15 averaged the combined hold down to $3.1725. Dropped the lot at $3.20 a couple of hours after open on Thursday when it looked like it was struggling. (Although, naturaly after I sold, the share price worked up to $3.22).



Happy with the exit and protection of capital after the price dipped today to $3.16. Will continue to monitor market sentiment for further entry opportunities. DYOR

 

[nulla nulla]

They reckon a week in politics is a long time and things change quickly but a month in the market is equally unpredictable.

gpt ranged from the low of $3.14 up to $3.33 than back to $3.19. The share buy-back is possibly underwriting the share price to some extent but it is ex-div and trading at a larger multiple of earnings than most other reit's.



Personally I think they need to work on increasing their earnings and subsequent dividends to warrant the current share price levels. Notwithstanding gpt continues to provide trade opportunities through the share price volatility for the quick. d.y.o.r & good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

Interesting two weeks since the last post. Opened at $3.16 on Friday 22/6/12 (below recent support at $3.19)and recovered through the day to close on $3.21. $3.22 seemed to be a resistance level that continued into this week then without any anouncements gpt surged on Wednesday and held up to close out the week at $3.29.



$3.19 appears to be developing as a support level with exit oportunities at $3.26+ for the patient. Be careful though, the share buy back will finish eventually and the price may not be so strong afterward without the buyback support. as always d.y.o.r.

 

[nulla nulla]

Someone didn't read the script? While the rest of the reit's did a jig between the ex-div price and the price before they went ex-div, gpt decided to test new highs.



Work that out. Volumes are not all that impressive, the gap between nta and share price is narrowing, the price earnings ratio is out of kilter with the xao let alone the rest of the reit's and the yield is...well it's pathetic. Why is gpt performing so strongly. Are they a take over target?

 

[nulla nulla]

The relentless rise of gpt continued through August culminating in an opening price of $3.66 on 6 September 2012. At this point gpt was trading at a premium to nta and one of the highest price earnings ratio's on the asx. Since then, gpt has steadily declined falling through $3.51, which looked like it might hold as a support level but it didn't.



Closing out the week at $3.40 saw gpt give up the support line for the week of $3.42. If it doesn't rally from here it could easily drop back to the $3.32 lower channel bar. I find it curious that market sentiment has driven gpt to a price level higher than sgp which currently has better yield, a better price earnings ratio and is trading at a bigger discount to nta. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

And away she goes. Obama won the second debate, the RBA dropped the interest rate, the Aud$ fell back against the US$ and the buyers snapped up gpt pushing the price back up to test $3.60 before dropping back to $3.53, then rallying again on the distribution notice to close out the week at $3.56.



gpt goes exdiv early next week, I think it is Tuesday. No doubt it will drop after that, although I supect that the drop will be brief and GPT will rebound to the low or mid $3.50's. As always D.Y.O.R and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

And away she goes. Obama won the second debate, the RBA dropped the interest rate, the Aud$ fell back against the US$ and the buyers snapped up gpt pushing the price back up to test $3.60 before dropping back to $3.53, then rallying again on the distribution notice to close out the week at $3.56.

View attachment 49383

gpt goes exdiv early next week, I think it is Tuesday. No doubt it will drop after that, although I supect that the drop will be brief and GPT will rebound to the low or mid $3.50's. As always D.Y.O.R and good luck.

I picked up a partial fill at $3.53 before gpt went exdiv. It climbed to $3.60 on Monday then dropped to $3.58 before I could close out a trade. I elected to hold for the div. On tuesday while exdiv, gpt rallied to $3.60 and I sold. Nice combo of div and capital gain.

Today gpt dropped to $3.50. Go figure, it should have done this yesterday?

 

[nulla nulla]

Nice announcement today. Looking good going forward. Anyone that picked up last friday in the $3.50 - $3.52 area had the opportunity to unload today at $3.57 (and if you put your sell in early, possibly even $3.58).

The share price dropped suddenly after 3.00pm. Interestingly enough the dow futures were down also. Possibly a re-action to the hurricane? Never mind, the close of $3.53 was a good re-entry point (in my opinion) so I jumped back in. The update was pretty good in my opinion. I particularly liked the low gearing rate, the low finance costs going forward and the high occupancy rates. Basicaly it looks like the status quo of income per shareholding is fairly secure.

Then again, what would I know. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

GPT took a hit in the sector sell down of some of the Australian reit's into the Friday close, closing the day on an interday low of $3.49. The sell down was some what of a contrast to the upbeat nature of the report released during the week. I suspect it may have been driven by a withdrawal of overseas funds in reaction to the hurricane in the U.S, similar to the pull out of funds from Australia after the Tsunami in Japan.



It will be interesting to see whether the gpt share price rebounds from here or slides to test lower support levels. As always d.y.o.r and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

In the aftermath of going ex-div, hurricane sandy and the US Presidential election, I am surprised at how well gpt has held up, on good volumes as well.

 

[Out Too Soon]

The chart is looking positive over the last month. Another thread where you've been talking to yourself Nulla, thought I'd keep you company. :

I currently don't hold but it came up in a scan

 

[nulla nulla]

.... Another thread where you've been talking to yourself Nulla...

Yep an excellent audience too.

I think the number of "views" might reflect that there is a fair interest in gpt. Since the announcement in respect the bid for Australand's assets (excluding residential developement) gpt leapt to $3.70 early in the week but has been drifting down since. The div might hold the share price up a bit in the lead up to 21-12-12 but don't be surprised if it tracks sideways (and down?) if the market really is shifting away from the security of yield shares to more risky resource shares. As always d.y.o.r. and good luck.

 

[bailx]

My guess is that GPT are a little over there head on this one?
I got a good feeling that there bid for ALZ will fall through and they will lose on those grounds. ALZ will continue to prosper.
Might want to place a stop loss? interesting to see how it all turns out?
ALZ +0.06 GPT -55%

http://www.moodys.com/page/viewrese...61822&WT.mc_id=NLTITLE_YYYYMMDD_PR_261822</p>

 

[skc]

Yep an excellent audience too.

I think the number of "views" might reflect that there is a fair interest in gpt. Since the announcement in respect the bid for Australand's assets (excluding residential developement) gpt leapt to $3.70 early in the week but has been drifting down since. The div might hold the share price up a bit in the lead up to 21-12-12 but don't be surprised if it tracks sideways (and down?) if the market really is shifting away from the security of yield shares to more risky resource shares. As always d.y.o.r. and good luck.

GPT is on a different dividend cycle so no ex-div for them on 21/12/12.

Would be interesting to see some quants work on REIT's performance leading up to dividend, and whether those on a different cycle (GPT, ABP for example), lags during the period.

Nulla - out of interest do you ever short REITs?

 

[nulla nulla]

No, I never short reit's. Actually I never short anything. Just sell when I think I have made enough or the share price has risen all I can reasonably expect.

You are correct. GPT announce on 6 december 2012 that the quarter distribution for period ending 31/12/12 would not be announced until 2 January 2013 with the payment date to be approximately mid march.

 

[bailx]

View attachment 49982View attachment 49983

No, I never short reit's. Actually I never short anything. Just sell when I think I have made enough or the share price has risen all I can reasonably expect.

You are correct. GPT announce on 6 december 2012 that the quarter distribution for period ending 31/12/12 would not be announced until 2 January 2013 with the payment date to be approximately mid march.

That's quite or Reit? Personally this ones into losing money. you can wait for ya payouts in a few month's but i believe with little affect. GPT needs to Swing back and re think its Financial Structure. With all respect! Supply & Demand. Buyers are Selling....

ACCUMULATION DISTRIBUTION.......Can be a good signal for a change in trend, when it go's the other way?

 

[nulla nulla]

Interesting article in the Sydney Morning Herald Business section by Carolyn Cummins:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/gpt-presses-on-despite-rebuff-from-australand-20121214-2bf4j.html

Brokers suggest GPT needs to win over CapitaLand (Australands major shareholder) but it will need GPT to offer a premium to NTA. The indicative price is undisclosed at this stage (and I can't work out the value of the residential component of ALZ to back it out of the NTA then add back the premium of $0.243c per share the bid offers to work out the bid).

Analysts at CBA appear to think CapitaLand will accept the offer. They also suggest the acquisition will add a further 8.2% to GPT's 2013 earnings.

It is worth noting that GPT reported on 13 August 2012, in their interim results for 31 June 2012 that they have Assets of 9 Billion and debt of only 1.8 Billion giving a gearing rate of 20.2% (one of the lowest of all the A-REIT's).

GPT is reported to be considering a capital rasing at $3.40 per share but I haven't seen any indication of whether this is true or whether it would be to existing shareholders, fundmanagers & sophisticated investors or a combo of both. Also I haven't seen any indication of how much they need/intend to raise. If you peruse the comparative table below of ALZ and GPT you would note that GPT is three (3) times the size of ALZ and could probably easily raise the necessary funds to acquire ALZ without adversly lifting their Asset/Borrowing gearing rate.

Date:	Closing 14-12-12
Share:	ALZ	GPT
Closing Price	3.31	3.56
Issued Shares	576,846,597	1,766,785,075
Capital	1,909,362,236	6,289,754,867
Earnings $	0.2520	0.1789
ROE	7.61%	5.03%
Dist $	0.2150	0.191
Yield %	6.50%	5.37%
P/E	13.13	19.90
NTA $	3.46	3.65
Discount to NTA	4.34%	2.47%

I suspect from the market reaction to GPT's announcement that it intended to proceed, that the market already considers it a done deal. ALZ jumped again on Friday and GPT dropped, probably commencing the slide down to the prospective capital raising price of $3.40. I suspect the rejection of the offer by the ALZ board is more to remove the conditions and break fee in the offer and make GPY go unconditional.

Disclaimer: The figures used in the table may contain errors and should not be relied upon to make investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.