GPT - GPT Group

[nulla nulla]

Tapped $3.12 twice this week then collapsed to close on $3.03 in the closing auction. Almost broke through to $3.02.
A bit surprising to me after they came out with the announcement of the change to the constitution setting up the ability to buy back shares. Seems to me they are forewarning of their intention to buy back shares at market (probably a good thing considering the discount to nta).
The report is due 21/02/11. Still a week monday to go. There have been no profit downgrades, I wonder if they will beat analyst expectations and announce a profit upgrade?
I've thrown in the MACD chart for the last three months. Only because it is hard to guage the daily volumes due to the sell off by SGP 4 months ago. Hard to work out if the share is overcoming the overhang of insto's selling off their take up at $2.75 or just enjoying a small run up before the report on 21/02/11. As always DYOR, all care and no responsibilty.

 

[nulla nulla]

Tapped $3.19 on Friday before settling back to close on $3.16. This is still trading below nta and has scope for improvment against earlier highs (since the global financial crisis).

I can't help wonder if there is an element of "buy on rumour" pushing the price up in the runup to the report due on Monday. If "fact" doesn't meet expectation the price will most likely beat a fast retreat.

From the recent releases I am expecting a good report: Improved result, improved nta from recent sales; possibly a small increase in earnings forecast for next year; small increase in proposed div for next year; and the announcement of a sharebuy back. Sounds like an early xmas wish list

 

[nulla nulla]

Seems the report isn't due until 25/02/11. Ooops....my bad. D.Y.O.R

 

[nulla nulla]

The report came out yesterday. The price dipped to $3.03 then moved up to peak at $3.13 before closing on $3.10.

Sometimes you wonder if those "in the know" use their market clout to short the price down before the announcement, so they can accumulate and benefit when the report comes out and the price rebounds. Nah... it couldn't happen.

 

[nulla nulla]

Finding support at the $3.03 level but struggling to hold any gains. In danger of dropping below the $3.00 level. Next level of support appears to be arround the $2.90 level. I would be surprised to see it dip below $2.87. DYOR

 

[nulla nulla]

REIT shares took a hit accross the sector and GPT was no exception. The Nuclear crisis in Japan meant that a lot of investors were spooked into selling out and seeking safety in cash or bonds. GPT was slapped down to the low $2.90's but showed resiliance to recover to close at $2.97 (after tapping $2.99 before the close of normal trading).

It would be too bold a call for me to suggest where the share price may go next week. The Japanese nuclear reactor crisis has further to run and there may be more offshore investors pulling their money out of Australian REIT's next week. Then again for every seller there has been a buyer and local investors may be stepping in to buy up a share that is trading at significant discount to NTA.

 

[nulla nulla]

It would appear that the market sees gpt as a worthwhile investment this week and has jumped in to buy up the bargain prices on offer, pushing the price up above the exdiv price.

 

[nulla nulla]

Once again GPT dropped after going exdiv. Recent support suggests it should not take long to recover above $3.10. Lates announcements have also been positive as gpt moves closer to consolidating its core quality assets and unloads non core assets at improved market prices.

Tight spread pattern for any swing traders looking to trade. DYOR.

 

[nulla nulla]

A rapid rebound after going exdiv. The news releases are all gung ho with: the shedding of non core assets; talks in progress to unload the Newcastle liability; and a share buyback.

The closing price of $3.12 is still well below the NTA and equates to $0.62 per share prior to the 1 for 5 amalgamation. Gotta be a bargain for the long termers etc etc but with the market being driven by sentiment FA & TA are really irrelevent atm.
As always dyor, comments made are an observation only and not a recommendation.

 

[nulla nulla]

Not a lot has changed in the share price since mid may. $3.19 appears to be a resistance line from which gpt has dipped away from in the after-math of the Newcastle sale falling through. The lows seem to be getting higher. Maybe it is building for a break out ???? DYOR

 

[nulla nulla]

Sideways this last week between $3.13 and $3.19. Not enough support to push through the ressistance level of $3.19 but enough interest to bounce off $3.13. Still a good discount to NTA and still a reasonable yield rate for the FA & TA investors. Could do with some more spread for short term swing traders.

 

[nulla nulla]

Retail negativity weighed heavily this week on the reits with retail exposure like gpt, sgp and wdc/wrt. Fortunately retail is only one component of gpt's make up.

The share price dropped toward the end of the week touching $2.99 interday (which is lower than the $0.60c value prior to the 1 for 5 consolidation). At $3.02 and $3.01 I considered the risk low enough to warrant an entry. My perspective is that gpt is only dispersing a proportion of income by way of dividends and is now working at increasing share holder value by way of share buy back (maximum 5%). Yield is solid and the price earnings ratio is low.



As always dyor and good luck. In my opinion, unless we shrug off the retail gloom and doom and money starts moving arround we are going to see a lot more sideways and downwards movement for some time to come.

 

[nulla nulla]

gpt tracked side ways this week. Unable to break out upwards but finding good support arround the $3.00 area.



At least it didn't get dragged down by the retail exposure like Westfields and Stocklands did.

 

[nulla nulla]

Lots of negative retail news and the influence of the sovereign debt issues now impacting on the REIT sector and gpt getting pushed down in the general fallout.

Better fundamentals this time arround and lower debt ratios with no major financing falling due, should mean that the share price will not get savaged as badly as it was in GFC mkI. No doubt some of the overseas investors will pull their money out and this will likely push the share price dow. However I would be surprised if local superannuant companies don't buy in on the opportunity for cheaper entry prices.

[Hey Joe, I can't load my charts?? Has something changed?]

 

[nulla nulla]

Here is the missing chart.




Thanks Joe for the quick fix.

 

[nulla nulla]

From a low of $2.58 to a high of $3.15 after an earnings upgrade, the trade opportunities were too good to pass up. The share price drifted back down with the herd on thursday and friday but found significant support in the $2.94 - $2.95 range.



No doubt the ongoing share buy back helps. While it could drift lower in the near future it has two (2) dividends comming up before the end of the year that would have been arround $0.045 each before the earnings upgrade. This may also help support the share price in this turbulant period. As always dyor

 

[nulla nulla]

Languished last week then ran up to $3.14. Went ex-div at $3.13 then hardly budged, tapped $3.08 then recovered, managing to continue trading in the $3.11 - $3.14 range.



Today someone wanted to unload a large parcel (priced at $2.85) in the open and for a little while the share price looked like opening at $2.90.

Seems a few other traders saw the gap down and set higher bids lifting the opening price to $3.05, however my bid at $3.04 was quickly filled and I immediately threw it back in for a sell at $3.08. Some days it is like taking candy from a baby.

 

[nulla nulla]

The lows have been getting lower and the highs lower also. However gpt continues to track mostly sideways and provide interday opportunities on tight spreads on a regular basis.



Jack be nimble, Jack be quick. Sometimes it is like catching fish. You might not get the all the big ones but if you catch enough small ones you still get a decent feed.

 

[nulla nulla]

For the last 12 Months, gpt has pretty much traded in a range from $3.00 to $3.20.



Over the last few weeks gpt looked like it was consolidating for a break out above $3.20, however on thursday gpt dropped to $3.08 closing on the days low (after opening at $3.15) and friday gpt opened at $3.12 then dropped interday to $3.06 before rallying to close on $3.10. Hopefully gpt will find support at this level and rebound to test the upper long term channel level of $3.20.



Otherwise the channel bottom of $3.00 beckons.

 

[nulla nulla]

GPT went exdiv last week at $3.12 (after testing $3.16 earlier in the week). The div is $0.049cpu so naturaly the share price dropped by more than the div tapping $3.04 before rallying on Friday to hold $3.11 in the close.



It will be interesting to see whether or not gpt can hold this level and/or climb to the upper channel levels of $3.20 in the next week or so. A few REIT's took a hit this week after the annual reports were released but GPT's report was fairly positive going forward. Personaly, I'm looking for a rally to consolidate the div plus a capital gain as gpt continues to trade at a discount to nta and has one of the lowest debt gearing ratio's of all the REIT's.